Marriage of Convenience

Adam Dunn’s move to Washington has the freshness and surprise of new stuff in the compost bin, but it nonetheless has provided spark and spirit for the Nationals as spring training camps open next week.

Dunn was reportedly unenthusiastic about taking the Washington offer, but his options narrowed to almost nothing after Bobby Abreu signed with the Angels. If Manny Ramirez had come down from Olympus to sign with the Dodgers, Dunn would have had no serious suitors to play off against the Nationals whose multi-year offer was the only one he had. So Dunn grabbed the money while it was still on the table rather than being left at the altar.

He joins old friends Austin Kearns and Jim Bowden to recreate the mediocre core of a Cincinnati team that never finished above .500. Despite Dunn’s lack of enthusiasm for the Nationals, his new team may represent an upgrade over those that Bowden put together before his demise with the Reds.

The trade puts the Nationals back in the headlines and gets their fans’ attention again after the tenacious pursuit of Mark Teixeira fell flat. More importantly, Washington is back in the game with the Braves who added Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez to shore up a rotation. The Mets shored up their bullpen, but the rest of the division is largely standing pat, so the upgrades by the Nationals begin the re-arrange the power equation in the NL East a bit–particularly in the race to escape the cellar.

Before the signing of Dunn, PECOTA projections for the 2009 season had the Nationals at 79-83 finishing fourth ahead of the Marlins. February projections aren’t worth much, but for all the moves made by the Mets and Braves, the NL East looks older and less dynamic than the home of the reigning World Champions. Right now the race looks to be between Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Santana–the Mets–and Rollins, Howard, Utley and Hammels–the Phillies.

The loss of Pat Burrell hurts the Phillies and signing Moyer and Ibanez does not offset it. The Braves have improved their pitching, but they have the same lineup around an older Chipper Jones. Then there is the questionable bullpen and it is uncertain how much better than 72-90 they will be in 2009. Florida let Olsen and Willingham go, but they are the only team in the division whose players are moving into their prime and getting better.

The Nationals are lining up more with the Marlins, young and with some expectation of being better. So while PECOTA favors the old and proven teams at the top, there is room to wonder whether the NL East will be more competitive than the projections. The Nationals have not moved into contention with the addition of Dunn. But $20 million for two years of Adam Dunn will give them a team that will not languish all season in the cellar and it is unlikely that Mark Teixeira would have made them appreciably better, so this free agent acquisition may prove the wiser investment ultimately, especially if it gives them the payroll flexibility to pursue Stephen Strasburg and beef up the organization overall.
Joe Posnanski had an excellent piece at SI comparing Dunn to Willie Bloomquist. His pleasure watching a scrapper like Bloomquist outweighs that for a plodder like Dunn. But the Nationals have the perfect Jekyll and Hyde combination in left field in Willie Harris and Dunn. Both Harris and Dunn will move around the diamond in DC, but Harris will play all of the positions well, hustling his butt off and putting up numbers better than Bloomquist’s. So the complete package will be there, just not in the same uniform.

The bottom line is that Dunn will have to be happy with the payday he got, and the Nationals fans will have to accept the limitations of their new slugger. It may all work out for the best, like it always does in a marriage of convenience. It is all about learning to love the one you’re with.