SHL Expansion One: Forward, March!

The Mets slump at a bad time, letting all three of their competitors move within striking distance going into a week of divisional play.

Expansion One is a funny division. On one hand, it’s the only group in the Seamheads Historical League lacking a .500 team—the leaders, Houston and New York, are tied with a .440 winning percentage. It’s probable that these four teams’ fans have seen more bad simulated baseball than those in any other division.

On the other hand, though, it is in Expansion One that the most spirited competition is taking place. Nowhere else are all four teams as closely bunched as the Mets, Astros, Rangers and Angels,  who are all separated by only two games . This, after a skid by the front-running Mets and timely winning streaks by the other three, and just before a set of head-to-head matchups bound to clarify the picture.

Up through the second week of July, it was never really a question of whether the  Mets  would win the division, but rather of when they would finally pull away. As a whole, the team is  demonstrably superior to Houston , its closest competition, yet a combination of questionable personnel decisions and streaky performance have hamstrung it, keeping it from opening up any real lead.

In the last two weeks, however, it’s become apparent that the division is more open than it had previously seemed. For this, the Mets have none but themselves to blame. Beginning on July 15 in the series finale with Texas , New York scored just two runs in three games with the Rangers and Twins. Much of the blame for this offensive shortage can be assigned at the top of the lineup—in their last ten games, Carlos Beltran is 6-35, John Olerud 5-32, and Jose Reyes 7-40. When the first three hitters in the batting order only manage 18 hits in 107 at-bats, not even the most potent slugging outfit (Darryl Strawberry, Mike Piazza and David Wright, for instance) will be able to carry the load.

The team’s only hope was for a string of pearls from the pitching staff. These, unfortunately, were not forthcoming. In fact, the pitchers’ woes have been a consistent theme in the month of July. In 20 games, they’ve allowed fewer than four runs only five times. Nominal ace Tom Seaver is 1-4 in his last five starts. Even when the team gets a strong outing from its starter—as, for instance, from David Cone  against the Royals on July 24 —the bullpen has been unable to seal it. Closer Billy Wagner has blown six saves in 26 opportunities, earning himself an unsightly 1-7 record.

As serious as these issues are, the Mets would be well served to  resolve them  before next week, when they travel to Houston for a three game series. The  Astros  have had their fair share of adversity recently, yet rebounded well enough to obtain a share of first place with their thrilling win over Arizona/Colorado on July 24 . They’ve won five of their last six after losing all four matches in a series against the Angels.

Even their bad luck has turned out well—when Moises Alou broke his foot, they called up Jose Cruz, who had been decimating Triple-A pitching in  Round Rock . In 15 at-bats so far, Cruz has seven hits, including two doubles and two triples.  For this top-heavy lineup , a player of Cruz’ skill set will pay huge dividends, provided that he gets the chance to play every day.

The Astros also expected a boost from Randy Johnson, who recently got off the DL. Thus far, however, he’s failed to be effective, and hasn’t seen much action since a  July 12 shellacking  at the hands of the Angels. Among the starters, Mike Scott has been the closest this team has to a sure thing. Roy Oswalt, an anomaly in this group of power pitchers,  tossed a beauty against Seattle on July 18 , striking out seven, walking none and allowing just a single run in nine innings. He, Scott and Roger Clemens are likely to take the mound against the Mets next week in what could be a season-defining series for both teams.

After spending over half the season as afterthoughts, both the  Rangers  and  Angels  have earned the right to be taken seriously, having clawed their way into serious contention. For the Angels, the opportunity presented itself in the form of a four game set at Houston. In  the first game , they withstood six Astros tallies in the first two innings, then chipped away through the rest of the game before Jim Edmonds knocked in Brian Downing in the top of the ninth for what would turn out to be the winning run. The next three matches had less drama, but were just as satisfactory, with the Angels winning by a combined score of 26-10. After stumbling against Boston the next week, they picked right back up with their winning ways, taking series from Kansas City and Milwaukee. Leading the way has been red-hot Mark Teixiera, who’s been on base 24 times in the last ten games. A surprise story for the Halos has been starter Dean Chance; the unsung righty has steered the team to victory in each of his last three starts.

Finally, there are the Rangers, who may be the hottest team of all right now. They’ve reeled off five straight victories, including a convincing sweep of Arizona/Colorado. In those five games, they scored 6, 15, 11, 6 and 8 runs—as evident a display of Rangers baseball as you’ll ever see. Juan Gonzalez, after sleep-walking through the first half, has four home runs in as many games and has reached base in the last eleven contests. Put up against the powerful Rangers lineup, the shaky Angels pitching staff looks like so much kindling for the fire. All season, though, they’ve managed to bend without breaking, and will certainly look to do so this week.

Though other divisions may have more star power, Expansion One is setting itself up as the place to be for September dramatics in the Seamheads Historical League. If any of these teams can manage to gain some distance in the divisional games to come, they’ll have that much more leeway later on, when the going really gets rough.