A Reason to Believe

Baseball legends that end in the top 100 have to start somewhere and Stephen Strasburg inches forward every Friday night as he takes the mound for Tony Gwynn’s San Diego State Aztecs. At the end of those evenings, the myriad scouts leave asking themselves when was the last time they saw anyone this good.

Two months from now in the first week of June, the Nationals will send their representative to announce who they are taking with the first pick in the June first-year player draft. The assumption is that they will call the name of Stephen Strasburg. Bloggers who are prone to hyperbole call Stephen Strasburg the “ Best of All Time .” Strasburg begs more practical questions however, such as the one raging in Washington, DC now, namely “How good does Strasburg have to be before he is worth the money that Scott Boras will ask?”

Strasburg was chosen as the only collegian on the 2008 USA Olympic team. As an Olympian he turned in two excellent performances including pitching against the Cuban team composed of older, more mature talent. That exposure and reports such as one in the NY Times upped the ante for the young pitcher. But he has not missed a beat, continuing to pitch extremely well in almost every outing for the Aztecs. Last Friday night he notched his sixth win with only six strikeouts in six innings. A disappointment since he has been averaging more than two strikeouts per inning going into that game.

The Washington Nationals earned the first selection in the June draft the hard way by losing 102 games. And no team is more in need of what Rod Stewart (via Tim Hardin) called many years ago, “A Reason to Believe.” Strasburg could provide much needed hype for DC fans, but some are not convinced that the decision is an open and shut one. Tom Boswell wrote of the risks of taking any pitcher and came down on the side of drafting a position player, despite the lack of a strong offensive presence in this year’s amateur crop.

A wonderful analysis refuting Boswell was published by Brian Oliver at Nationals Farm Authority who boiled the differences between pitchers and position players down to negligible proportions, especially when discussing a pitcher with the unique upside of a Stephen Strasburg. But risk multiplies when Scott Boras is involved and the Nationals failed to sign their top pick in 2008 without any pressure from Boras.

Boswell should watch Keith Law’s scouting report on Strasburg . It includes a video and is entitled, “Strasburg Ready for Majors Right Now.” Watching the game action against Brigham Young, it is hard to miss the hard run on the ball moving across the plate. Law holds the radar gun up to the camera to verify the 99 mph speed. The video also provides a great side view of Strasburg’s motion and the powerful long leg thrust he uses to achieve the speed of the fastball and the wipeout slider.

But best of all is Law’s discussion about whether that motion puts stress on his arm reminiscent of Mark Prior. There is no way to know the answer and Law concludes by saying Strasburg should begin the 2010 season near the front end of the Nationals rotation and provide a big boost to lagging interest in the DC franchise. True that.

Peter Gammons brought this discussion to a boil with speculation from nameless sources that Strasburg and Scott Boras would demand as much as $50 million to sign. That report was the one that sent Tom Boswell to the ink well to raise the issue of risk. But Strasburg is an intelligent kid who was pursued by most of the top tier colleges in the country.  He is too smart to refuse to sign and take his show on the independent league circuit.  He is more likely to take the $20 million or so the Nationals or someone else will push at him. That will not tamp down the wild talk.  It is likely to continue–whatever its motivation, whatever its source.

The Nationals front office will have to wrestle with a building press crescendo over the next two months. Can they ink Strasburg’s “legendary” to a contract? The question will be asked more pointedly after the draft is held. But answering the questions of their fans if they back off from the challenge of a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity will be far worse than failing to sign him.

The Nationals draft in 2007 netted the team a bevy of talent and was regarded as the best in baseball. Not much has gone right since then. The 2009 draft offers a huge opportunity to turn that around. No team has ever had two of the first ten picks in the draft–none, nada. Is it an alignment of the stars? A team with a rare draft opportunity collides with a pitcher with one of the highest ceilings in years. The Nationals could walk away from the June draft with a historic haul, fronted by one of the great pitching prospects in recent history.

There should be no backing away from it. Signing Strasburg and the others could give even this town of professional critics and lawyers a reason to believe in the future of the Nationals. After getting a look at the crowds in Viera and the one last night for the exhibition game against the Orioles, this is a town badly in need of a reason to believe.