Looking for Follow Through

With Washington’s major league organization going literally from bad to worse, it is natural to look for relief–so to speak–in the minor league system. Team president Stan Kasten almost three years ago committed himself to building a world class organization modeled on that of the Braves. In baseball and many sports “ follow through ” is all important. Finding it in Washington requires blind optimism.

The Hagerstown Suns are the Nationals low-A affiliate that plays at Municipal Field. That stadium was constructed in 1931 and hosted Willie Mays in 1950 when African Americans were not welcome playing in many minor league venues. There is rich history in Hagerstown’s Municipal Stadium, but turnout is sparse these days. The players on the field do little to honor that old Willie Mays tradition.

With much press attention, Nationals management toured the historic old stadium last summer. But neither the stadium nor the team has seen any improvements. The Suns are playing well below .500 and players benefitting from Kasten’s organizational excellence are hard to find.

The four full-season teams playing minor league baseball for Washington have a combined winning percentage just a tick above .400. It is fair of course to remember that Washington’s ownership group, headed by the Lerner family, inherited the worst minor league organization in baseball in 2006. But we are almost three years removed from the original commitment by Kasten to rebuild. Not just low-A teams like Hagerstown, but others as well should be seeing some of those promising young athletes who are learning the “Nationals Way.”

The scheme to rebuild the old Expos as a quality Washington system became known to Washington’s faithful fan base as “The Plan.” It included bringing in the best instructional personnel to teach the game to the young players brought in wherever they could be found. Almost immediately the team announced the signing of Smiley Gonzalez to a $1.7 million contract and a promise to follow that with other international signings. There has been not a single high-profile international talent since Gonzalez who evaporated in an ongoing fraud investigation.

The 2007 amateur draft was the first for the new ownership group and with the sixth pick overall they chose Ross Detwiler, a highly regarded college left-hander out of Missouri State. They capped off the success of the draft by signing another very talented left-hander, Jack McGeary. No one else believed he could be signed and based on that feat and the overall haul of talent Baseball America judged the Nationals draft that year to be the best of any organization.

Where have all the flowers gone? Ross Detwiler, Jack McGeary and almost every high upside talent from that draft is struggling. Where is the much vaunted instructional league personnel that is supposed teach the young Nationals to play the game better than the rest?

In the three drafts since 2006 the Nationals have had a bevy of first round or first round supplemental picks–six in all. They failed to sign their first rounder in 2008, but Chris Marrero, Colton Willems, Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, and Michael Burgess were all taken during the first 50 draft selections in both the 2006 and 2007 drafts. In fairness, only Detwiler was a college player so the development curve is longer for the other four who came from high school. But none of those five players is on a career path in the Nationals organization that indicates notable major league success.

The 23-year old Detwiler is laboring at Double-A Harrisburg. His mechanics have been “refined” by Nationals instructors so that his delivery is more “repeatable.” The different arm angles he used in college to get more movement on his curve were considered a strength by some scouts. After the Nationals re-tooled Detwiler’s delivery, his most consistent feature has become his inconsistency. His ERA in 2008 neared five runs per game at 4.86 and it is 5.11 this season. It is a small sample but the evidence is that his Nationals tutors have made matters worse.

Jack McGeary is only 20 and pitching at low-A Hagerstown to a 5.79 ERA. He has yet to put together a successful season. Josh Smoker is hurt. Michael Burgess has not improved on the huge and very raw talent he came to Washington with two years ago. His most notable accomplishments are his strikeouts and nothing anyone has told him has cut down on them since his signing. 2006 first-rounder Colton Willems looks more hapless with each passing season and he is largely forgotten.

Of these highly touted young prospects, only McGeary and Marrero have reasonable hope they may yet find their way. That optimism is based on their youth, not the rush of others succeeding around them.

Looking out over the rough sod of the field in Hagerstown, or into the dugout that might look more comfortable at a local high school–one can only wonder where the commitment to their minor league teams begins for the Nationals. To be fair, there is Jordan Zimmermann who has joined the Washington rotation after being taken in the second round of the 2007 draft. He moved quickly through the organization and has looked very good in two starts.

But fans looking for other Jordan Zimmermanns will find none in the box scores in Hagerstown or the other affiliates. For fans looking for the follow through on Kasten’s commitment to build a world class organization, the cupboard is nearly bare. Hagerstown is only 75 miles east of Washington but these days it looks all too close.