April Again Unkind to Astros

The Astros record of 9-13 in April was not much different than last year (13-16). Bad starts and strong finishes have become the norm in recent years.

The biggest problem is that the team is not scoring enough runs, scratching out only 3.55 runs per game, down from 4.42 last year. The pitching staff has held the opposition to 4.19 runs per game, a significant improvement over 4.61 last year.

For the month of April, the Astros ranked near the bottom in most offensive categories. Of the 16 National League teams, they were tied for 14th in runs and on-base percentage, 14th in batting average and 15th in slugging average.

The biggest problem is that Astro fans haven’t had many opportunities to see Lance Berkman hit the ball. With 22 strikeouts and 17 walks, coupled with a .164 batting average, Berkman has not been a run producer from the key No. 3 position in the lineup.

Geoff Blum (.328) and Miguel Tejada (.318) are off to good starts but neither hit a home run in April. Michael Bourn has shown significant improvement from last year with an on-base percentage of .373 but no one else has stepped forward.

The starting pitching rotation was expected to be a problem area but the bullpen, essentially intact from last year, was considered to be a strength. The reverse was true in April. The starters recorded an ERA of 4.00 in April but the relievers ERA of 4.35 was a disappointment. Overall, the Astros staff had an ERA of 4.13, ranked 9th in the league. Wandy Rodriguez was the bright spot in the starting rotation with 5 straight quality starts and an ERA of 1.69.

Fielding was a strength in 2008 when the Astros set a major league record for fewest errors in a full season (67). April was even better as the sure-handed Astros committed only 7 errors, three by pitchers. The team allowed only 2 unearned runs all month.

May shapes up as a tough month with only 11 of 28 games at home.

The 2009 season will be a good test for the stats-heavy analysts at sites like Baseball Prospectus and ESPN.com whose pre-season predictions were generally in the range of 70-92 for the Astros. Three factors were commonly cited. 1). The Astros over-performed (were lucky) in 2008 when they compiled an 86-75 record despite being outscored by 31 runs (712-743). 2). They have the oldest team in the league and 3). They have a very weak minor league system that is especially short of players that can be of help this year. Hopefully, the Astros will be motivated to prove the experts wrong.