Seamheads Near Miss League: NL East Preview

As the senior members of the Seamheads Near Miss League , the 1916 Brooklyn Robins have the longest standing thirst to slake. In the competitive National League of that year, the Robins ascended to the top of the standings in early May and managed to stay there for the duration of the season, despite never holding a lead of more than five games. The well balanced Brooklyn squad was second in the league in runs scored, first in on-base percentage, second in runs allowed and first in hits allowed. In the World Series, they faced the defending champion Boston Red Sox, who had narrowly held on for the pennant in the face of a late season charge by the White Sox.

The 1916 Robins were led offensively by Hall of Famer Zack Wheat, in the prime of his career at age 28. Wheat had bounced back from a down year in 1915 to lead the league in slugging (.461) and total bases (262). 1916 also marked the beginning of a stretch in which he posted an on-base percentage over .350 nine times in ten seasons. Other key contributors for the offense were sweet swinging first baseman Jake Daubert (.371 on-base percentage) and young outfielder Casey Stengel. The pitching staff—probably the best in baseball—was captained by Jeff Pfeffer, who posted career-high marks with 25 wins and a 1.92 ERA.

In the World Series, Brooklynites’ high hopes were dashed almost immediately. The key game in the series was the second one, an extra innings duel between two lefties, the Robins’ Sherry Smith and the Sox’ Babe Ruth. With the scored tied 1-1 in the bottom of the fourteenth inning, Smith gave up an RBI pinch-hit single to Del Gainer, losing in heart-breaking fashion. The Robins took the third contest, 4-3, in the first ever World Series game at Ebbetts Field, but Boston wasted little time in winning the next two, completing a 4-1 Series victory. Brooklyn was left to wait until next year, which finally came in 1955. The team’s chances in the SNML depend on their pitching staff, as the batting order has several question marks behind the top three of Wheat, Daubert and Stengel.

Nearly all Seamheads readers should be familiar with the tale of the next contender . The 1951 New York Giants’ streak down the stretch provided a blueprint for underdogs around the world, and culminated in one of the most historic home runs in baseball history; they won 37 of their final 44 games, including a play-off against the Dodgers on the last day of the season. By the time the World Series started, though, they may have fired all their bullets.

Five years after baseball was first integrated, the Giants featured a standout cast of former Negro Leaguers including Monte Irvin, Willie Mays and Hank Thompson. The pitching staff, best in the National League, was highlighted by the menacing veteran Sal Maglie. 1951 was one of the greatest years for baseball in New York, as all three teams were involved until the very end. In the World Series, the Yankees proved too much for the Giants, who batted only .237 in the six games. It was the last playoff appearance for Joe Dimaggio, and the first for Mays and Mickey Mantle.

Unfortunately for the team’s fans, 1951 is by no means the only sore spot in Giants history. Other close losers include the 1908 club that lost to the Cubs in a play-off, the 1911-13 squads, which lost three consecutive World Series; and the 1993 Giants, who won 103 games but failed to reach the post-season. If the Giants hope to atone for their past blunders in the SNML, they’ll need a more balanced offensive attack than they got in the post-season, and more pitching depth as well—in a rotation with three starters over 200 innings, an injury could be disastrous.

Two years removed from a World Series championship, and with most of the key contributors still in place, the 1988 New York Mets were a formidable favorite to win it all once more. David Cone had arguably the best year of his career, going 20-3 with a 2.22 ERA and eight complete games; he was joined in the rotation by Dwight Gooden, still very much at the top of his game, and Ron Darling. The pitching staff on the whole was the best in the National League in terms of fewest runs allowed and most strikeouts, and ranked second in ERA.  Offensively, the Mets boasted a rare mixture of youth and experience. Darryl Strawberry, Lenny Dykstra, Kevin McReynolds, Howard Johnson and Wally Backman each recorded an OPS+ over 105, and all were still in their twenties. In September, they were joined by phenom Gregg Jefferies, who reached base in 23 of 29 games and slugged .596 in so doing. No team in the National League scored more runs, hit more homers, or got on base at a higher rate.

In the NLCS, the Mets matched up with the Dodgers. On paper, it looked like a cakewalk: in 11 regular season matchups between the two teams, the Mets had won ten times, outscoring Los Angeles 49-18. True to form, New York won two of the first three match-ups, and looked to take advantage of a home crowd in Game Four to put a stranglehold on the series. A pair of homers by Strawberry and McReynolds and an RBI triple by Keith Hernandez gave the Mets a 4-2 lead that they took into the top of the ninth. Starting pitcher Gooden had cruised through eight innings, striking out nine and allowing only two hits. Going into the final frame, though, he’d already thrown 118 pitches. John Shelby worked him for a lead-off walk, then Mike Scioscia swung at the very next offering and drilled it deep to right field and over the fence, tying the game. The two teams played into the 12th inning without scoring, until Kirk Gibson homered off Roger McDowell, winning the game for the Dodgers.

After having come within three outs of a commanding 3-1 series lead—and with another game to play in New York—the Mets were in a tied series, and the Dodgers smelled blood. They took the next game as well, on the strength of another Gibson home run, and returned to Los Angeles with a 3-2 lead. The Mets took Game Six thanks to a complete game gem by Cone, but Los Angeles knocked Gooden out of the box early in the deciding game and ended up winning to advance to the World Series.

The main reason for the Mets’ failure was their starting pitching in the playoffs: in their three starts, Sid Fernandez and Ron Darling combined to last only 11 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 18 hits. That was surely unexpected, and could be chalked up to the general uncertainty of the playoffs. With better chance, the Mets could be serious contenders in this campaign.

Although the 1991 and 1992 clubs won more games, it is the 1990 Pittsburgh Pirateswho will be chasing lost glory in the SNML . That squad won the NL East with a record of 95-67. Starting pitcher Doug Drabek went 22-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in 231.1 innings pitched—good enough to garner Pittsburgh’s first Cy Young Award since Vern Law in 1960. The eight regulars in the field were all under 30 years old, and led the league in on-base percentage. The best of the group was young Barry Bonds, who was coming off an MVP season in 1989. He followed it up with a line of .301/.406/.565, 33 home runs, 114 RBIs and 52 stolen bases. His fellow outfielders were Bobby Bonilla and Andy Van Slyke, comprising the most popular core in recent Pittsburgh history.

Despite a first place finish in the regular season, the Pirates ran into serious trouble in the NLCS against the Reds. The problem was not with starting pitching depth, as could have been expected—Bob Walk and Zane Smith both threw well. Their downfall, rather, came when the bats went into a sudden and complete hibernation. Bonds, Van Slyke and Bonilla were a combined 12-63, with no home runs. The Pirates scored one run in two games, three runs in three games, and four runs once. With such anemic production, they could hardly have expected better.

Bucs fans have long wondered what might have happened if even one of their team’s sluggers had caught a hot streak during the series with the Reds (not to mention if Barry Bonds had been able to throw out Sid Bream at the plate in ’92). This, finally, may be their chance to find out, although it’s by no means a certainty that the pitching will hold up its end of the bargain a second time. Even in a league of near misses, these Pirates may be the longest shot of all.

It’s not often that a second place team is more beloved by its fans than teams that actually took home the trophy, but it just might be true in the City of Brotherly Love. Neither the 1980 or 2008 squads have a hold on Pennsylvania hearts the way the 1993 Philadelphia Phillies do. That rowdy cast of characters slugged, slapped and swore its way to the NL East crown just a year after finishing in dead last place. Center fielder Lenny Dykstra had a .420 OBP and 37 steals, Darren Daulton hit 24 home runs, and John Kruk had the best line on the team at .316/.430/.475. Perhaps most remarkably, the team finished with 665 walks, one of the highest marks of the decade; Daulton, Dykstra and Kruk each walked over 110 times.

The starting pitching was both solid and deep, including Curt Schilling, Danny Jackson, Terry Mulholland and Tommy Greene. This was particularly fortunate for the Phillies, whose bullpen left much to be desired. Closer Mitch Williams and primary set-up man David West gave up 95 walks in 148.1 innings pitched. In comparison, none of the five starters walked as many, and all pitched many more innings; Schilling, for example, walked 57 in 235.1 frames.

After dispatching the Braves in the NLCS, Philadelphia met the defending champion Blue Jays in the World Series. Despite the departure of 1992 hero David Cone, Toronto had its own staff of aces, led by Juan Guzman and Dave Stewart. In a wild series, the Phillies were unable to post enough runs to keep their bullpen out of danger. Halfway through Game Four, for instance, they had a 12-7 lead, but West, Williams and Larry Andersen allowed eight runs in an eventual 15-14 Phillies loss—a record for the most runs ever scored by the losing team in a World Series game. After a beautiful performance from Schilling in Game Five got them back in the picture, the Blue Jays swept in and claimed the title on Joe Carter’s walk-off homer, again off Williams, in Game Six.  In the context of the SNML, the Phillies have a lot going for them. For instance, they might hope that Schilling’s post-season reputation holds water when put to the test yet again. The GM might also consider re-arranging the bullpen to try and take advantage of the abundant offense and quality starters.

Of all the competing teams, surely none has as legitimate a grievance as the 1994 Montreal Expos . All the other teams, supporters of nos amours could argue, have only themselves to blame for their eventual failure. The Expos, meanwhile, were cruelly denied the opportunity for post-season glory by the players’ strike of 1994, which resulted in the first cancelled World Series since 1904.

After coming in second place in 1993, the Expos had two key changes for 1994. First, they’d traded promising young second baseman Delino DeShields to the Dodgers for 24-year-old Pedro Martinez, who had been overshadowed in Los Angeles by his older brother, Ramon. Pedro went 11-5 for Montreal in 1994 with an ERA+ of 125, and went on to become one of the most successful pitchers of his generation; unfortunately, it was largely not with the Expos. DeShields was solid for another seven years, but never fulfilled his early potential. The second change was replacing first baseman Greg Colbrunn with 21-year-old Cliff Floyd, one of the most highly touted prospects in a very deep system.

For all their talent, the Expos’ start was merely average, leaving them 3.5 games back at the end of May. Once the weather heated up, however, Montreal followed suit, going 19-8 in both June and July, and 9-2 in August. Leading the charge was ace Ken Hill. From June 5 to July 7, Hill was 6-1 in seven starts with a 3.28 ERA, punctuated with a July 7 complete game shutout in San Diego. Moises Alou and Larry Walker held down the corners in a fast, talented outfield, and Marquis Grissom stole 36 bases in 42 attempts.

As negotiations got more and more acrimonious and the drop-dead date approached, the Expos put on an absolute clinic. They won 19 of their last 22 and, by August 11, were comfortably in first place with a 74-40 record. August 11, unfortunately, was also the day the curtains came down on baseball. Montreal’s final game was a 4-0 loss to the Pirates; only 17,000 disgusted fans bothered to attend.

Of the key contributors to the 1994 Expos team, only Martinez and Mike Lansing were still around in 1997. When baseball fans in Canada reminisce about what could have been, then, it goes deeper than 1994. What if two generations of Expos hadn’t been systematically exported? Really, the 1994 season is about more than 114 games—it has to stand in for all of Montreal’s hopes and dreams, doomed to fail just as they began.