Nationals Can Do da Limbo Rock

In the ‘Limbo Rock,’ Chubby Checker asked the question back in 1962, “How Low Can YOU Go?”  That very year, the New York Mets under Casey Stengel answered with one of the lowest winning percentages–.250–in the modern era.*  Those Mets are the standard against which bad teams are measured.  The Washington Nationals are at .265 and have lost six straight.  Can they go as low as the ’62 Mets?  

The Washington Nationals currently are losing at exactly the same pace as the 2003 Detroit Tigers.  That Tiger team went 43-119 for a .265 winning percentage which for the moment is the same as today’s Nationals.  There is of course consolation in a comparison to those Tigers who have now become one of the more consistently competitive teams in the American League.  Only three years after their disastrous 2003 season, they won the AL with 96 wins.

But to find a National League team that provides a real touch stone to the Nationals situation, one must look all the way back to 1962 and the newly minted expansion Mets.  That Mets team was replacing both the New York Giants and Brooklyn Dodgers who had left for California.  New York City fans had been forced to settle for the Yankees, but many in the City had loathed the Yankees their entire lives.  Those Yankee-haters of yore were willing to overlook the Mets’ play on the field and called the Mets, ‘lovable losers.’

Few would call the Nationals lovable.  They might better be described as youthful indiscretion writ large.  Their fans are still hoping they will outgrow the poor judgment; desperate for them to flirt less with their Charybdis and Scylla–the twin errors of both commission and omission.

But gratefully, comparisons to the 1962 Mets do not work on every level.  The Mets were more balanced than the Nationals.  They had bad pitching, a horrid defense and an anemic offense.  Washington is scoring runs at a very respectable clip–4.9 runs per game.  That figure is well over the league average of 4.6 and is 4th in the NL.  The Mets managed only 3.8 runs per game–ninth among the ten NL teams at the time.

The Mets pitching was bad, but their defense made it much worse.  It is here that the two teams synchronize–team pitching and team defense.  The 1962 Mets allowed 5.89 runs per game.  Opponents were scoring two runs per game more than the Mets on average–a large gap that explains the abysmal won-loss record.  The Nationals by comparison are allowing 6.2 runs per game.  That figure is worse than the Mets but the gap between the runs scored by the Nationals and allowed is far smaller–only 1.3 runs.

The Mets starting pitchers included Roger Craig who was a legitimate ace of the staff.  He lost a record 24 games that season, but his ERA was a modest 4.51 over 33 starts and Al Jackson was even better with an ERA of 4.40 over his own 33 starts.  The Nationals have no veteran presence like Craig.  They are all youthful promise and indiscretion.

What is uncanny is how bad the bullpens of both teams are and how closely they parallel each other.  The Mets bullpen consisted largely of Craig Anderson who appeared in 50 games and threw 131 innings to an ERA of 5.35.  All by himself Anderson was a bad bullpen.  But he had help.  Ray Daviault pitched 81 innings that year to a 6.22 ERA.  Casey Stengel said that year, “Don’t cut MY throat, I may want to do that later myself.”  With a bullpen like that it is no small wonder.

The Nationals bullpen woes have been cataloged in this column recently.  They were pitching to a 6.2 ERA several weeks ago.  They have improved of late and the veteran presence of Tavarez and Villone may help, but it is unlikely the bullpen will be helped by a defense that has been consistently bad all season.

In 1962 the Mets had a double play combo of Charlie Neal and Elio Chacon.  Along with occasional subs, they managed 78 errors around the second base bag.  They were emblematic of a defense that included Marv Throneberry at first base where he made 17 errors of his own.  The team provided blooper material for several seasons.

The Nationals have made only 48 errors in the field to date, but the official scorer in Washington has swept more errors under the rug than he has counted.  An outfield of Adam Dunn in right and Josh Willingham in left has been uglier than a mother could love.  And given the lack of focus of Alex Hernandez–at second base–it is a wonder he can find the ballpark much less cover first base on a bunt play.  The team errors may never reach the level of the ’62 Mets, but it won’t be for lack of effort.

The bottom line analysis is a promising one for Nationals fans.  It is difficult to believe that with a run differential of only 1.3 runs per game that they can approach the 1962 Mets.  The Nationals would need to go 40 wins and 122 losses for the season.  They would have to play worse baseball than they have to date.  Most in DC believe the young pitching will get better, the bullpen will stabilize and that the team can approach 50 wins.  It does not set the bar too high.  But when the “limbo moon is high, and you fall in limbo love,” it is hard to know just how low you can go.

* The 1935 Boston Braves .248 and 1916 Philadelphia Athletics .235 are arguably the worst but few remember that far back.