Up and Down Month for Astros in July

The Astros put together their second straight winning month in July (15-12) following a 16-11 record in June. The centerpiece was a three game sweep of the Cardinals in Houston reminiscent of a similar sweep in September last year that kept the Astros in the running for the wild card until the last weekend of the season.

The high watermark for the team was on July 25 when they were 4 games over .500 and only one game off the Division lead. Unfortunately, things fell apart at that point as the team lost 6 of their next 7 games to finish the month at 51-52. Several factors contributed to the collapse. Their two best players, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt are on the bench with injuries. The back of the starting rotation suffered a complete meltdown resulting in the release of Russ Ortiz and questions about Mike Hampton. The bullpen has been used early and often and has been running on fumes for the past week. Another factor is the team’ uncanny knack for grounding into rally-killing double plays where they lead the major leagues with 103.

There have been a few bright spots. Wandy Rodriguez had an ERA of 0.75 in July as the Astros won 4 of his 5 starts. Oswalt was also pitching very well before he was hurt. Miguel Tejada continues to deliver clutch hits and leads the National League in doubles and hits. Michael Bourn is playing well offensively and defensively and leads the league in stolen bases and triples.

The Astros continue to win more than their share of games based on runs scored and allowed. Despite their winning record in July, they were outscored 136-118 and have been outscored 480-431 for the season. The expected record with this differential is about 46-57 instead of 51-52. This is what happens when a team wins games with scores of 3-2, 4-3, 5-4 and 6-5 and loses games by the scores of 13-0, 9-0, 13-2, 10-3, 12-0 and 12-3, all of which happened in July.

The immediate future does not look encouraging for the Astros, particularly with the uncertainty surrounding Berkman and Oswalt. The two teams ahead of them in the Division, The Cardinals and Cubs, both made significant acquisitions prior to the trading deadline and are playing well. The Astros brought up their top pitching prospect, Bud Norris, from Round Rock to slot into the starting rotation. He was only 4-9 at Triple-A but led the Pacific Coast League in ERA and strikeouts. Side arming reliever, Sammy Gervacio was also promoted to provide some relief for the bullpen.