Remaking “The Chosen One”

Hollywood script writers go back to the same well-worn ideas time and again because it requires intellectual rigor to create something genuine and new.  Baseball writers can fall into their own ruts.  Last year’s drum beat that Stephen Strasburg was a “once in a lifetime” talent had not reached its climax before Sports Illustrated trotted out the sequel–Bryce Harper.  Maybe it’s just no country for old men, but my head is not ready for the remake just yet.

Sports Illustrated put Bryce Harper on the cover of their June issue with the 2009 amateur draft only days away. Tom Verducci of SI called Harper the next Lebron James, then with that hyperbole still hanging in the air, Harper became the next Tiger Woods–all in one June SI article. 

The facts about Bryce Harper are impressive, but he is only 17 years old.  He has the physical maturity of an adult, weighing in with 205 pounds on a 6-3 frame.  He seems more mature than his years, but that said, he is remarkably young.  He skipped not one but two years of high school to get his GED and enrolled in community college to make himself eligible for the 2010 draft in the summer before what should be his senior year in high school.

Using an aluminum bat Harper hit a 500-ft home run in a derby at Tampa Bay as a high school sophomore and the legend of his power has grown exponentially with other exploits.  There has been no one to date to question his skillset or his decision-making.  Conversely, skeptics of Stephen Strasburg’s value abounded.  They questioned the many pitching prospects with unique talents that had flamed out well before reaching the majors.  Harper’s trajectory has less drag in that sense.  As a batter he is unlikely to fail egregiously.

However, even that assumption is open to question.  Delmon Young is an example of a outstanding offensive talent, taken with the number one pick, who then fails to reach his well-hyped potential.  Of the overall number one draft picks taken in the last ten years only Joe Mauer has attained stardom.  The list includes Matt Bush–chosen as a shortstop, Josh Hamilton, and Adrian Gonzalez.  But of those, only Hamilton and Young were hyped beyond their realization and Hamilton’s star was diminished by non-baseball issues.

At the recent unveiling of Stephen Strasburg at Nationals Park, Scott Boras was walking off the stage last when two fans standing close to the stage yelled out to the uber-agent asking whether he would be returning the next year with Bryce Harper.  The fans in Washington with little else to cheer but some undefined future glory are whipping themselves into a frenzy of expectation like a crowded beach that just heard the word “Shark!”

Much as Strasburg became a prophet of the baseball future in DC, fans are anxiously cheering every loss down the stretch in hopes of winning the Bryce Harper derby.  A baseball web site in DC was following Harper’s first fall scrimmage at the College of Southern Nevada, the fine academic institution Harper chose for its ability to polish his baseball skill set.

Nationals Vice-President Stan Kasten in several recent articles has talked about the importance of young pitching.  Grow your pitching at home and buy the bats you need.  Kasten has articulated that strategy consistently and it is one that has been successful for a very long time.  So what are the real choices going to be in 2010 and are there wiser options that might compete with Bryce Harper?  Are there high profile pitching talents in who will come out in 2010 and could grow the Nationals?

One of the higher-profile pitching talents is Gerritt Cole, who many believe will be taken in the first few picks in 2010 if he continues to develop on pace.  The UCLA pitcher was selected by the Yankees in the first round of the draft coming out of high school and has had success in each of his first two years for the Bruins.  Last season he struck out 108 in 85 innings and pitched to a 3.49 ERA.

Contrasting one variable for the two players: character, one is struck that Cole turned down what would have been a huge bonus from the Yankees in 2008 to attend one of the best academic institutions in the country for three years.  Harper is enrolled at a fourth-rate community college purely to avail himself of all the bonus money Scott Boras can extort from the team that bellies up to the bar.  That parameter yields a stark contrast between Cole and Harper.

Harper may prove out.  He could be another once in a lifetime talent.  Harper may be better than Joe Mauer, better than Joe DiMaggio, better even than Rocco Baldelli.  But it flies in the face of the baseball traditions that I grew up with to relish the demise of your home team for the promises made by a seventeen year old.

I lusted after a few seventeen year olds in my day, but you had to be careful which state you were in when you did it–lusted after them I mean.  So I am counseling caution before the Nationals schedule another bout with Boras.  The remake is never as good as the original and it might be worth asking whether an unscrupulous 17-year-old is really worth it.  Can you hear me Susie Q?