Hot Stove Report Card Warms DC Snow

If there were a report card for front office moves by the Nationals in the off-season, it would be upbeat, but still a mixed bag.  In an economic climate where almost every team–even the Yankees–is cutting back, the Nationals will end up spending more than last year.  They will have a better team in 2010, but when you been down so long that it all looks like up, how do you keep score?

The Nationals’ eentzy payroll bought the worst ’09 record, but it was the stupid money that hurt the worst.  Two horrible contracts came off the books: $8 million for Austin Kearns and $5 million for Dimitri Young, both signed by Jimbo Bowden.  That left money to spend and a simple blueprint was possible to move the team forward.  For an additional $30 million the Nationals can field a far more competitive team to begin the 2010 season and still be in the bottom half of major league salaries.

Much of that has been done, but the Nationals continue to cut corners.  They took Austin Kearns’ money and signed Jason Marquis.  Whatever you think of Marquis, he provides a significant upgrade for the worst pitching staff in baseball.  The Nationals now have two pitchers who have achieved a level of major league success in Marquis and John Lannan.  Scott Olsen is back for what it is worth, but Ross Detwiler is more likely to be pitching at the back end of the rotation at season’s end.

Then there is Stephen Strasburg who is owed almost $4 million this year.  It is unlikely he will start the season in Washington, but as Keith Law pointed out recently, he is still the best talent that will pitch for the Nationals this year. Regardless where he is on opening day, his stuff–the hard curve and the ease with which he can pitch at “94-98 mph with good life”–makes him staff ace.

Last week I assessed the much improved bullpen.  The Nationals paid smart money for Matt Capps and Brian Bruney, signing both for a total of $5 million. For relatively little, the Nationals have moved their pitching staff from a solid “F” to a “C-.”  But the Nationals continue to pick the lower hanging fruit, going for renewal projects like Capps.

The other side of the ledger–the offense–achieved less improvement.  The Nationals scored 4.4 runs per game in 2009.  The four NL playoff teams scored at or close to 5 runs per game.  Washington scored at about 40th percentile and were competitive with most of the teams in the middle, but to make more of their C- pitching they needed to upgrade the lineup.

Ronnie Belliard’s $2 million contract came off the books and Mike Rizzo replaced him with newly signed Adam Kennedy who I like more than O-Dog. Kennedy will provide better defense than Belliard or any of the stiffs that Washington used to deny Belliard playing time.  Kennedy moves to second base from third where he played in Oakland.  But unlike Belliard he won’t need to play in the outfield to provide adequate middle infield range.

The biggest upgrade Kennedy could give Manager Jim Riggleman is a legit two-hole hitter behind Nyjer Morgan.  Kennedy gets on base more than Cristian Guzman who batted there all year in ’09. Kennedy can also steal a base even at 34 and putting that speed at the top of the lineup should bump Guzman.  Guuz should hit seventh or eighth where he and Ivan Rodriguez could provide important pop to a lineup that should be better top to bottom than in the middle.

Kennedy, Ivan Rodriguez and a full season of Nyjer Morgan should boost the Washington offense.  The only lingering hole in the lineup is right field where a proven bat would have helped.  Josh Willingham and Nyjer Morgan are solid, though Willingham’s defense is suspect.

Right fielder Elijah Dukes is the weak link after two disappointing seasons.  The Nationals also have unproven Justin Maxwell who could play right field.  The odds that either he or Dukes will have a break-out season are small and smaller.

The overall team payroll for 2010 will probably be in the neighborhood of $70 million.  There was money to add a free agent in right field, but with other teams cutting back that figure will move Washington up to within haling distance of the mid-point.

The performance may be better, the money spent smarter, but the chances that Washington will approach .500–as Ryan Zimmerman opined several days ago–will depend on one of those perfect storms where the moon and stars align, where all the kids play above their average.

The Hot Stove report card???  You love your team, like your kids, because they are yours.  The Nationals continue to try to tamp down expectations, but it is wearing thin.  Even after beefing up the scouting department and player development personnel, the product on the field is the ultimate test.  The Nationals will be better, but it may be the kind of progress lost on all but the trained eye.  Me?  I can barely find my car keys, so my report card comes in an improved, still hopeful  C-.