Weighing Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper had no where to go but down after being hyped as Lebron James last June.  Questions arose after uneven moments in his play last summer, then again at the start of the college season.  Nationals GM, Mike Rizzo, who will pick first in the amateur draft in three months, must decide whether the growing doubts about Harper outweigh the very substantial positives. Keith Law has never struck me as the type who is bowled over by hype and his assessment of Harper quoted in a recent MLBrumors.com article make me believe that the 17-year old Harper has real skills that deserve a number one draft pick.  Baseball America still has him sitting atop the leader board, but there are other talents like Texas high school pitcher Jameson Taillon creeping up on the “Chosen One,” as SI called him last year two minutes after Strasburg was drafted.

I like the comparison of Harper to Tim Tebow by Buster Olney.  As a life-long Gator fan, I know all about Tim Tebow.  I watched him coming out of St. Augustine as a uniquely hyped quarterback in his high school class, watched him lead my alma mater to a national championship, win a Heisman.

But I have also seen all of the analysis of his intensely flawed throwing motion.  I know he has seen the same thing and have to wonder why he has been unable over four years at Florida to correct such an obvious flaw.  That is what I wonder about Bryce Harper.  How fast can the very young Bryce Harper grow into the prodigious talent that rivals Tebow’s coming out of high school.

When you compare Jameson Taillon with Harper there are so many more reasons to like Taillon. When  Taillon had all of the cameras on him last summer in the under-18 Pan Am Championships in Venezuela, he was dominant, pitching the USA to a win over Cuba.  He had 7 and 2/3 innings of four-hit ball, no runs and 16 k’s.  Harper was also outstanding hitting third in the lineup, but it took him some time to adjust to playing at the highest level.

Taillon is eighteen and while it is hard to say that a high school senior is older and more developed than any one in the amateur draft, Taillon is a year older than Harper and may be more mature.  He is committed to Rice University and his 3.8 GPA indicates that there is a mental maturity a bit deeper when you consider the GED Harper settled for.  Taillon, like Harper, has plenty of choices when it comes to whether he wants to sign a pro contract this summer.

The Nationals have held their cards pretty tight, although they have said that in the ideal world, they would prefer to draft a player who is further along than Harper OR Taillon.  But the college class in 2010 does not have the dominant player along the lines of Stephen Strasburg, at least not at this juncture.

So what’s a GM with a crying need for “close-to-ready” players to do.  When the upper levels of the Nationals farm system are as thin as they are, can the Nationals afford to wait and see if Bryce Harper is all they say he is?  Can they play russian roulet with a Scott Boras agent again, especially one with all the cards that Harper will have at 17?

I think the last question may have more to do with who the Nationals will draft than anything else.  Last season it all came down to Stephen Strasburg’s desire to play baseball.  He was already 21 years old and he did not have as much leverage as Harper at 17 will have.  The young man can always pack it in if he doesn’t like the Nationals offer.  He can play another season at the college level or play in the independent leagues.  What is another year to a 17-year old if it Boras convinces him it may mean an additional 25 million dollars?

The number one college player is Anthony Renaudo of LSU who has been out with injuries since making his first start in February.  Close behind is Deck McGuire of Georgia Tech who has been very impressive in his two starts, but the Nationals would probably love to avoid all of the drama with young pitching prospects and take a position player.  The problem is the drop off in position players after Harper.

It is still early and the college season is just getting started.  Two years ago Gordan Beckham came out of the weeds at the University of Georgia and convinced even the hard boiled skeptics like Keith Law that he was the goods.  He has become one of the quickest developing talents, slotted to play third base for the White Sox for a long time to come if he can play like he did in his rookie year last season.

The Nationals need is for a talent that will develop quickly like a Beckham. And I like the chances that Bryce Harper and Scott Boras will do all that Strasburg refused to do in driving the price of amateur players to new highs. Do I want the Nationals to be part of that drama?  No way.

On the other hand, do Nationals fans want to sit back and watch Bryce Harper tear up the league in a couple of years knowing he could have been ours?  I guess it depends what we get instead.  Mike Rizzo has his work cut out for him.  I am betting he finds a college player who can hit or decides between a Deck McGuire or Taillon based on signability.

Strasburg will be pitching in Washington by the time the draft is held. Hopefully Nationals fans will have enough on their plate such that a summer long drama about whether the next Lebron James gets his $50 million payday can be someone else’s headache.