2010 NL West Preview

Colorado Rockies
2009 Finish: 92-70  2nd place; Wild Card; Lost 3-1 to Philadelphia in NLDS
Notable Acquisitions:INF Melvin Mora, OF Jay Payton, C Paul Lo Duca, RP Joe Beimel
Notable Departures: RP Alan Embree, C Yorvit Torrealba, 3B Garrett Atkins, OF Matt Murton, SP Jason Marquis

Pitching and Defense:

The Colorado Rockies ranked 8 ^th in the NL in ERA, 9 ^th in batting average against, and 7 ^th in WHIP, yet they still made the playoffs.  The Rockies have high hopes that Jeff Francis can return to form, but he and closer Huston Street will start the season on the DL.  Ubaldo Jiminez, Aaron Cook, Jorge De la Rosa, and Jason Hammel fill out the rest of the rotation with Francis.  Jason Marquis was an All-Star last year, and had a 3.92 ERA in Coors Field.  The Rockies are counting on Hammel to fill in that role this year.

Colorado’s defense was solid, ranking in the  NL’s top five for fewest errors and best fielding percentage.  With no major changes to the team, it’s hard to imagine Colorado’s defense getting worse.

Offense:The Rockies ranked first or second in the NL in OBP, OPS, and SLG, but seventh in BA.  Troy Tulowitzki led the Rockies in most of their offensive categories, with longtime Rock Todd Helton leading in BA.  Again, with the minor changes made to this team, it’s hard to imagine a drop-off for the club.

Player to watch:Carlos Gonzalez, the starting LF, came over in the Matt Holliday trade.  Last year, he showed flashes of power, hitting 13 home runs in 278 at-bats.  One has to wonder what he will do over a full season, hitting in Coors Field.

2010 Outlook:2010 could be a year of another division title for Colorado.  With the Dodgers looking a bit weaker, and the Giants trying to mix in younger guys with the veterans, Colorado seems ready to take control of the division.  The entire team is basically returning; if Jeff Francis can hold up over the course of the season, the pitching rotation looks solid.  Todd Helton’s leadership is one of those intangible factors that one can never ignore.

Predicted Order of Finish:1st

San Francisco Giants
2009 Finish:  88-74  3rd place;
Notable Acquisitions:INF/OF Mark DeRosa, 1B Aubrey Huff, RP Horacio Ramirez, P Todd Wellemeyer
Notable Departures:SP Randy Johnson (retired), 1B Ryan Garko, OF Randy Winn, RP Bob Howry, SP Brad Penny

Pitching and Defense:

San Francisco led the league in striking out opposing batters in 2009.  Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain were first and third on the team, respectively.  The team ERA was second in the league, behind the division rival Dodgers.  The starting rotation remains mostly intact, with Todd Wellemeyer taking Randy Johnson’s slot.  Lincecum and Cain signed new deals in the off-season, along with closer Brian Wilson.  Jeremy Affeldt returns to the bullpen.

San Francisco’s defense was average last year, middle of the road in the NL.  Mark DeRosa should keep the fielding steady in left, but John Bowker is rather unknown in right.  Aubrey Huff is penciled in to be the starting 1B, replacing Travis Ishikawa, after spending his entire career in the AL.  Both Huff and Ishikawa have been solid defensively over their careers; Huff’s fielding percentage as a 1B is .993.  All things considered, San Fran’s defense doesn’t look to improve that much, but the good news is that it shouldn’t get worse.

Offense:San Fran’s weakness in 2009 was their offense, placing in the bottom half in all offensive categories, including last in OBP and OPS in the NL.  The Giants signed Aubrey Huff and will have a mostly-full season from Freddy Sanchez depending on when he returns from injury.  Mark DeRosa adds some much needed OBP.  SF’s offense looks on paper to be better this year, but there are still enough questions to wonder whether they’ll actually be better.

Player to watch:John Bowker is the everyday right-fielder now; how he plays the wall in right, and how he hits will be interesting to watch.  With the exception of Aubrey Huff, the Giants know what they will get from the other players.  How much influence Aaron Rowand and Mark DeRosa have on the young Bowker remains to be seen.

2010 Outlook:The starting rotation is very good, and the defense is solid, but the offense is lagging.  Huff is coming off a bad season, including a sub-Mendoza line performance with the Tigers.  Sanchez will provide some hits, but will he stay healthy?  Overall, the team seems to be coming together, but not enough to overcome the Rockies.

Predicted Order of Finish:2nd

Los Angeles Dodgers
2009 finish:  95-67  1st place; Lost 4-1 in NLCS to Philadelphia
Notable Acquisitions:OF Garret Anderson, OF Reed Johnson, RP Ramon Ortiz
Notable Departures:RP Will Ohman, 2B Orlando Hudson, OF Juan Pierre, SP Randy Wolf, 1B/DH Jim Thome

Pitching and Defense:

The Dodgers staff had the best ERA and lowest batting average against in the NL in 2009.  Randy Wolf was a large part of that, with 11 wins and a 3.23 ERA.  Wolf now pitches for the Brewers, and the Dodgers are counting on Vicente Padilla to show that his short stint with the club last year was an indication of years to come.  Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda return, and 26 year old Charlie Haeger (with 4 starts in his entire career), taking the number 5 slot.  Ramon Ortiz is waiting in the bullpen for possible spot-starts, or if Haeger can’t fill out the fifth spot.  Flame-thrower Jonathan Broxton returns as closer, and the bullpen remains mostly unchanged.  The Dodgers might find pitching to be a weakness, if Padilla can’t find the plate, and if Haeger’s inexperience comes back to haunt him.  Billingsley, Kershaw, and Kuroda return, but the real question is who will take Wolf’s 214 innings from last year?

LA’s defense was 4 ^th in the NL in 2009.  Orlando Hudson’s Gold Glove was a big part of that, but he was jettisoned out of town, with youngster Blake DeWitt taking his place.  The infield remains intact around him, though.  The outfield remains the same, with Reed Johnson taking over the backup role Juan Pierre once had.  Casey Blake is another year older at 3 ^rd , and may have a drop-off defensively.

Offense:LA’s offense was one of the best in the NL last season, if not THE best.  They led the league in batting average and OBP, and was fourth in runs scored.  Orlando Hudson was fifth on the team in hits, fifth in slugging, and was tied for third in total bases; Blake DeWitt takes his spot defensively, with the offensive replacement yet to be determined.  Manny Ramirez was suspended 50 games last season for violating baseball’s substance abuse policy.  If the Dodgers want their offense to stay potent, they’ll need Manny to play like he did in his 104 games last season, and for DeWitt to be some of what Hudson was.  Andre Ethier’s power cannot be denied, and Matt Kemp is solid in CF and at the plate.  The 2010 Dodger offense looks solid too.

Player to watch:Blake DeWitt is the one to watch.  Manny will be Manny, but DeWitt takes over second base, where Orlando Hudson provided steady play, and a decent bat.  The Dodgers need DeWitt to do the same to compete in the NL West.

2010 Outlook:The young core is supplemented by veterans like Blake, ManRam, and even Brad Ausmus; but with the ace of their staff gone, Ramirez and his “interesting” defensive positioning another year older, and Furcal’s error-prone fielding at shortstop returning, a repeat at a division title looks a bit bleak.

Predicted Order of Finish:3rd

Arizona Diamondbacks
2009 Finish:  70-92  5 ^th place
Notable Acquisitions:RP Bob Howry, 2B Kelly Johnson, 1B Adam LaRoche, RHP Aaron Heilman, INF Tony Abreu, SP Edwin Jackson, SP Ian Kennedy, SP Rodrigo Lopez
Notable Departures:OF Eric Byrnes, SP Max Scherzer, RP Daniel Schlereth, RP Scott Schoeneweis, SP Doug Davis

Pitching and Defense:

The Arizona Diamondbacks retooled during the off season, hoping to avoid finishing in the NL West cellar again.  Gone are Doug Davis and Max Scherzer from the starting rotation, replaced by Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three-team deal with the Tigers and Yankees.  Ejax looks to take over the #3 spot while Kennedy would be the #4, behind Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, assuming Webb comes back solid.  In the interim, Rodrigo Lopez will hold down the 4 ^th spot.  The D-Backs also added to a bullpen that ranked near the bottom of the NL in almost every category.  Chad Qualls avoided arbitration and agreed to a one-year deal to try and build on his 24-save 2009.  Qualls had surgery in August of ’09 on his knee, and the D-Backs are counting on that knee to hold up.  The D-Backs also have high hopes for ace Brandon Webb, who only pitched 4 innings last year, but is out until at least early May.  Ever-solid Dan Haren leads the rotation for his third season in the desert.

The defense couldn’t have been much worse for the D-Backs last season.  They were 2 ^nd in the NL in most errors committed, with the second worst fielding percentage.  The only team worse?  The Nationals.  Chris Young’s solid defense in CF returns for the team, while Justin Upton hopes to cut down on his 12 errors he had playing RF in 2009.  Over his career, Conor Jackson has been steady in left, committing only 4 errors there throughout.  The left side of the infield stays the same with Mark Reynolds and Stephen Drew returning.  The two combined for 30 errors last season, and a combined  .967 fielding percentage.  Steady Adam LaRoche takes over first base, while Kelly Johnson will man 2B, which was fairly solid defensively last season.

Offense:2009 was a strange offensive season for the D-Backs.  They were 4 ^th in the NL in slugging but 13 ^th in batting average and 11 ^th in on-base percentage.  Last year’s offense was led by Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton.  Arizona hopes that those two can continue their hitting, and that Conor Jackson  can regain his 2008 form, when he hit .300 with 12 HR, and 75 RBI, while slugging .446 and an OPS of .823 while playing LF.  Stephen Drew is a solid-hitting SS, but two questions remain for the infield: one, will Adam LaRoche get off to his notoriously slow start, and two, which Kelly Johnson will arrive on Opening Day?

Player to watch:The entire pitching staff.  If Brandon Webb can come back from his injuries, and Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy provide solid pitching every time out, this team could surprise.  If Edwin Jackson pitches like the Edwin Jackson of the second half of 2009 instead of the first half of 2009 (when his batting average against rose from .212 to .290, his strikeout-to-walk ratio fell from 2.77 to 1.83, and his ERA was 5.05 for the half), Arizona could be in trouble.  Brandon Webb needs to pitch more than the 4 innings he pitched in 2009 in order to help out this team.

2010 Outlook:2010 is about another year for Arizona’s young core to work together, with an eye on competing for the division title in 2011.

Predicted Order of Finish:4th

San Diego Padres
2009 Finish:  75-87;  4 ^th place
Notable Acquisitions:SP Jon Garland, OF Matt Stairs, C Yorvit Torrealba, OF Scott Hairston
Notable Departures:SP Jake Peavy, SP Chad Gaudin,

Pitching and Defense:The young Padres got younger, with a new GM in Jed Hoyer, and a retooled pitching rotation.  Veteran Jon Garland was brought in to anchor the staff of Kevin Correia, Chris Young, mid-season pickup Clayton Richard, and prospect Mat Latos.  The Padres are hoping the staff can put together a good year, and improve on last year’s 10 ^th best ERA.  All-Star closer Heath Bell returns, but one has to wonder if the Padres will ship him off at the deadline too.

San Diego’s defense was average last year.  Sure, there were spectacular plays, but outside of that, the defense was adequate.  Chase Headley takes over third base full-time this year, while Kyle Blanks and Will Venable take over in the outfield.  Blanks and Venable have played sparingly in the outfield over the past few years, but one would have to imagine they would be better than an aging Brian Giles.  Tony Gywnn’s defense needs to improve a bit if this team wants to be known for its defense; or Scott Hairston needs to play.  David Eckstein and Everth Cabrera return as the double-play combination from last season, and Adrian Gonzalez mans first-base.  Gonzalez is a Gold-Glover, while Eckstein is solid; the Padres would like Cabrera to cut down on his 23 errors from last year, though

Offense:The offense was in the bottom-half of every offensive category in 2009, including last in batting average.  But this team is young.  Very young. This could be the year that the young talent starts to hit.  Jed Hoyer is going to let his young guys take their lumps.  Kyle Blanks and Will Venable showed some power in very limited action last season.  Adrian Gonzalez is a proven slugger.  This team may not slug its way to a division title this season, but it will get some much-needed experience for 2011.

Player to watch:Chase Headley is one to watch.  He has started 36 games at 3 ^rd over his major-league career.  This will be his second full season with the Padres, and they are counting on him to provide some power from the hot corner.  He’s still young, and it will be interesting to watch how he fares.

2010 Outlook:Jed Hoyer has learned under Theo Epstein during his time with Boston.  Since this is his first year, he’ll take the time to put his stamp on the team.  While the Padres haven’t gotten worse, last year’s last-place Diamondbacks have gotten better.  This is probably a last-place team this year, but Padres fans can look at this like a seasoning year for their youngsters.

Predicted Order of Finish:5th

Nick is currently a 3rd year law student in Chicago, and a student member of the Sports Lawyers Association. He’s been a baseball fan since age three, and avidly follows his Detroit Tigers no matter where he is. Nick’s hoping to work his way into baseball after law school. He wrote a biography on Al Kaline for the SABR book Sock It To ‘Em Tigers and has been a member of SABR since 2006.