Christmas In June

To: St. Louis Cardinals
From:  Arizona Diamondbacks
Note: You can use it more than we can.  Enjoy this  gift-wrapped win !

There are really no words to describe what happened in the ninth last night.  Throwing the ball away on a runner going to third?  Throwing the ball past the catcher and letting the tying and winning runs score?  They say you can always see something you’ve never seen before when you watch a ballgame, and that would definitely qualify.It was nice that the Cards (with assistance) were able to pull out the win last night, because it would have been a very frustrating loss.  I don’t know exactly how much credence to put into this “ Tony La Russa outfoxed ’em ” storyline that’s going around, but if Dan Haren buys into it, 1) he should know, being a former Cardinal and 2) even if that wasn’t the intent, it worked.

Still, nobody’s talking about TLR if the Diamondbacks field their position.  Who do they think they are, Detroit Tiger pitchers?  Give some credit to  Yadier Molinaand Brendan Ryan as well.  When the game’s on the line and you need baserunners, seeing those guys come up doesn’t inspire you with confidence, but they got the job done.

It looked like the Cards were going to run away with that one, though, when the first three batters reach and two of them score.  However, that was the epitome of “get to a star pitcher early” because after Albert Pujols’s double, Haren shut them down.  Matt Holliday had a terrible at-bat and the momentum had shifted.

Even though the Cardinals won, it’s going to be a while before the fans forget  Randy Winn‘s adventures in the outfield.  Looked like he was going to be able to pull back Adam LaRoche’s game-tying homer, but without him Mark Reynolds only gets a single, maybe a double depending on how it is played.  (Dan Haren’s home run needed no assistance.  Thankfully that was the only hit of the night for him!)

As for Chris Carpenter, it didn’t appear to me, the little that I saw of the game, that he had as much control as you’d like to see.  He was missing inside early and walked two guys in the second with two outs.  Granted, he got laced by a line drive in the first, which might have had a little to do with it, but another game with four walks and three home runs is further proof that 2009 is over.  He’s still good and still a top pitcher, but you realize that these kind of games are going to happen more and more often.

So an ugly game all the way around, but these things have a way of being a lot prettier when you are the team that came back to win.

Before we get into yesterday’s Twitter discussion, a few other things happened.  Probably the biggest of which is that David Freese is  heading for the disabled list , with the recall of Tyler Greene. (Update:  BJ Rains says that TLR says they are bringing up a pitcher.  That’s what I get taking too long to write this post.  Modifications follow.)

I was trying to figure out when Freese had hurt himself in the last couple of days.  I know I don’t see as much of the games as I should, but I didn’t remember it being a topic of conversation.  Then I see in the article that it relates to the June 5 incident against the Brewers.

Which leads into the age-old discussion of “How much do you play with pain?”  Obviously, you have to play in some discomfort.  The bumps and bruises of the season mean that no one is at 100% after the first couple of days of April.  We’ve seen the example of JD Drew, who sat out so often that the fans and the manager turned on him, deriding him as soft.

But we’ve seen the other side as well.  Part of what soured the relationship between TLR and Scott Rolen was Rolen’s inability to admit that he was hurting, even when his numbers declined and it was pretty obvious there were some health issues.  Freese seems to have fallen into this category, with the added twist of being a rookie and therefore not wanting to create issues.

However, his production has tailed off noticeably, and as we noted yesterday, if Freese can’t give you average, he’s not giving you much else at the plate.  His defense is still solid, but you have to get some production out of third base.It’ll be interesting to see what Greene does, if he gets a chance to play.  We may see a lot of Felipe Lopez at third, but with the slumping of Ryan again (thought nice to see him get two hits last night) Greene really needs to get some regular playing time at one of the positions.  It’s not like Lopez has been tearing it up lately either.

(Update: If they actually do bring up a pitcher, that further weakens the offense, because you are going to run Lopez and Ryan out there every day and the top backup is Aaron Miles.  Your bench is Miles, Jason LaRue, and Nick Stavinoha, since Winn will be out there until Ryan Ludwick returns this weekend from his calf injury.  I’m sure they like Fernando Salas, who can return early with an big-club injury, but is that really a smart idea?)

In other news, Pujols has decided  not to participate in the home run derby .  That’s probably for the best and you’ll hear a lot about him slowing down last year.  I seem to remember one year, though, he came out strong after being in the derby, because I remember commenting that maybe he’d be the opposite of Bobby Abreu.  I’ll search the archives sometime and see if I can pull up that post.

Anyway, it’s always fun to have someone to cheer for in the derby, but I can’t blame him for getting a little rest and having a more laid-back experience after being the face of the game last year.  Let someone else have all the fun!

All right, the rumor mill.  Yesterday on Twitter it came out that the Cardinals were  interested in Cliff Lee .  When I looked at the pitching trade options a few weeks ago, Lee was at the  top of my list .  However, it doesn’t appear that the Cardinals could get him without parting with top prospect Shelby Miller.

The first reaction, of course, is to say “no deal”.  Miller is expected to be a future ace and is under team control for six years.  Lee is a rental, a dominant pitcher to be sure, but a guy that isn’t going to be around long-term because of the financial ramifications of the upcoming Pujols contract.  Besides, trading our top pick two years in a row is not exactly the way to build up a minor league system.

Thinking about it a bit more, I’m not going to say I’m for it, but I can see some reasons that the deal wouldn’t be as bad as expected.  First, if and when Lee walks, the team would get two picks in next year’s draft, coupled with the pick that is rightfully theirs (assuming they didn’t sign a free agent that required them to give it up).  From all reports, next year is a deep draft pool, so perhaps they could use those picks to select pitchers that are closer to the majors than Miller is.

Secondly, TINSTAAPP.  The famous acronym from Bill James–There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect–is famous because, most of the time, it’s true.  Pitchers burn out, blow out arms, never develop to what they are expected to be.  One of the more impressive things about Stephen Strasburg is that he’s as good as the hype around him.  So just because Miller may be an ace, he may not be as well.  Would you trade a future #3 guy for Lee?  Maybe.  If you didn’t have to worry about a budget with Pujols, definitely.

Third, as we discussed yesterday, there’s not much way to improve this offense.  You are pretty much stuck with what you have.  So, if you can’t improve the runs scored, improve the runs prevented.  There’s no doubt that a Carpenter/Wainwright/Lee/Garcia/Penny rotation would give you a strong chance to win every time out.

It seems the Cardinals are looking at Lee, but as the above story about Pujols and the derby highlights, they believe last night’s starter, Mr. Haren, is a more attainable target.  Which is true–Haren has an ERA over 4 this year, Lee has been dominant in the tougher league.  If you can get Haren and keep Miller, that might be a bigger win for the club.  Haren is  under contract for a couple more years , which the Cardinals have been trying to avoid in their dealings, but it’s for just a shade under $13 million per the next couple of years, and unless you have home grown talent (which they don’t, unless they want to use PJ Walters and Adam Ottavino), it’s going to be tough to find a pitcher for less than that.

Haren admitted that he’s  wanted to return to St. Louis , so even if he had a no-trade clause (which he doesn’t), that wouldn’t be an issue.  Fans would love to have him back and to finally erase the thoughts of the Mark Mulder deal, or at least soften them somewhat.  If I were going to bet, I’d think that the Haren move might just happen in the next month.

News on  Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny was positive yesterday , as both did a little throwing.  Penny had a bullpen session.  With Penny still a couple of weeks away, it’ll be unlikely that he’ll return until after the All-Star Break.  I’m surprised that La Russa doesn’t believe he’d need at least one rehab assignment, but it seems like Carpenter was out for six weeks or so and didn’t make one last year, so I guess that’s par for the course.Lohse is farther away, of course, and you have to figure it’ll be at least August before he returns.  If they make a move for Haren or another pitcher, would Lohse then become a bullpen guy?  I don’t know if he could be that kind of pitcher or not.

Finally, to wrap this up, I wanted to highlight Fox Sports Midwest’s “This One’s For You” game coming up on Friday, when they honor our military with a game on American Forces Network.  They’ll be talking to Missouri National Guard troops that are stationed over in Afghanistan as they watch the game.  It’s a great thing that they do to honor those that serve.  We talked to Geoff Goldman about it when he was on the UCB Radio Hour before the season and I’m glad that they are able to do it again this year.

Wainwright (who hopefully did wear himself out in the craziness of the ninth) goes against Dontrelle Willis.  While it’s always possible that Dontrelle will find himself and have a solid game, the biggest thing for the Cardinals tonight is to have patience.  Willis has walked 21 guys in 17.1 innings this season and can get to 100 pitches by the fifth.  The Arizona bullpen is a weakness as well, so the sooner you get into that, the better.  On the whole, the Cardinals should be able to win this one tonight.  But like last night proved, in baseball, you never know.