Maximum Feasible Dunn

And all through the house not a creature was stirring, no baseball news from even a mouse.  Black Friday shoppers are out in force, but baseball has only the near silent whisperings of General Managers waiting to see which players accept arbitration before the Tuesday night deadline.

One quiet household could be turned on its head if–contrary to all bets–Adam Dunn accepts the Washington Nationals arbitration offer. That news would send GM Mike Rizzo back to the drawing board for quite a while. He has been counting on this option now for months and it is a complicated equation, one that will take years to evaluate. But in the late November quiet it is worth examining.

Rizzo turned down trade offers for Dunn from the White Sox and others in the run up to the July deadline. From Chicago he could have gotten Dan Hudson who ultimately went to Arizona, plus a similar prospect. It would have been a two for one haul, but he deferred. The chances now are that he could stand to get three or even four players ultimately for Dunn if the cards break right. It is a long shot deal, but Washington has lost almost 300 games in the past three seasons and getting maximum return for a salable commodity like Dunn is essential to see any market corrections here.

Dunn is one of the safest bets to opt for what the open market will provide him. He is a player in his prime coming off several of his best years. He wants a four-year contract that will provide him more than $12 million a year over its run. His best suitors are likely to come from the American League where his long term potential is greater where he can DH.

When he walks Rizzo will stand to gain two top draft choices for Dunn as a Type-A free agent. If a competitive AL franchise like the White Sox sign Dunn, the Nationals will receive Chicago’s 23rd pick in next June’s draft as well as a sandwich round pick. It will give them three picks from among the best 50 young talents in a draft class that is likely to among the richest in years. Rizzo has to wait until Dunn signs to see whether he gets two picks or one. If Dunn signs with one of the worst eighteen teams in MLB, then Rizzo only gets a supplemental round pick, but that is unlikely.

White Sox GM Ken Williams could see in Dunn a younger and likely cheaper version of Paul Konerko. The Detroit Tigers–who would have yielded Rizzo a second pick in next year’s draft at number nineteen–were rumored extremely interested in Dunn, but have moved on after signing Victor Martinez. The market for Dunn is thinning and that has to make Rizzo a little nervous.

But the down-side bet is not that grim. As long as Dunn signs with someone other than the Nationals, Washington and Mike Rizzo get a sandwich pick as a bonus. Then Rizzo has to sign a first baseman to replace Dunn and as one of the lower tier teams in MLB, Washington will pay no first round draft penalty for signing even a Type-A free agent.

The market for first baseman is one for buyers.  Rizzo has plenty to choose from for a Dunn replacement. He has said he wants a better fielding team in 2011. Among the free agent first baseman with better defensive reps is Adam LaRoche. LaRoche was payed $6 million on a one-year deal in 2010 by the Diamonbacks–half as much as Dunn. Assuming Rizzo can get LaRoche for slightly more money on a longer term deal, he gets a remarkably consistent offensive player who can protect Ryan Zimmerman in the batting order and will play a much better first base. More importantly he frees up enough money for Washington to pursue a starting pitcher.

The Nationals are in the hunt for Cliff Lee, but it is unlikely he will sign. The options thin out quickly thereafter, but with the additional money provided by Dunn, Rizzo can be more aggressive in going after pitchers like Carl Pavano or Jorge De La Rosa.  For the sake of argument, let’s say that Pavano and LaRoche can be signed for the money that Dunn will command in the market place. Dunn’s money will not completely underwrite their signings, but it will be in the same ballpark.

So at the end of the day, Dunn represents something much different to the Nationals in 2011. They will not have the affable power hitter that fans came to appreciate, but they will have something far more valuable.  They could have a fine first baseman and power hitter as well as an anchor for their rotation for almost the same money. They also could have two additional first round draft choices to add to their steadily improving minor league organization fronted by Bryce Harper.

If Rizzo gets the maximum feasible return on Dunn he has put a better club on the field in 2011 and substantially helped a rebuilding club for years to come. However it plays out, Adam Dunn will be multiple personalities for the Nationals in 2011.  Mike Rizzo bucked fan and press anxiety for the better part of a year to do it, but sometimes the best things happen quietly over time. Maximum feasible Dunn looks like he will be one of those regardless the finally tally.