Ripeness as a Baseball Concept

With the signing of Adam LaRoche, the Nationals ownership group is making a statement.  The Lerner family who own the Washington franchise are just beginning to introduce themselves, but for those who don’t know, they are real estate Mughuls. They have created an empire valued at somewhere between $3 billion and $4 billion by buying land cheap and holding it until it is “ripe” for development.  Then, when the moment is right, they either sell at a substantial profit, or develop it themselves.

The purchase of Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche signals that the Lerners are ready to invest more heavily–to “develop” the Nationals–at the start of 2011.  Does that mean that the Nationals are a market that is ready to blossom?

The 2011 ledger shows that the Nationals parted with liabilities such as Cristian Guzman, Adam Dunn, Scott Olsen, Matt Capps and Josh Willingham. GM Mike Rizzo replaced some of them with talent from the farm system like Ian Desmond and Danny Espinoza who will man the middle of the infield instead of Adam Kennedy and Guzman. But Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche–who fill the shoes of Dunn and Willingham–were among the first high profile free agent purchases by the Lerners and I doubt they will be the last.

Neither Werth nor LaRoche came cheap and some have opined that the Lerners are just throwing their money around idly, that it has not been spent wisely. When Werth was headed for Boston, no amount of money would have been considered unwise for a competitor like the Bosox to spend.  For the Nationals to spend the same money–ludicrous.

So maybe a look at the “comps”–comparables–is in order. LaRoche signed for $15 million on a two-year deal–$7 million the first year–with an option for the third year.  Willingham was due $6 m, so the difference financially is negligible and they are very similar players offensively. LaRoche, however, has a spot on the diamond where his glove makes sense.  Willingham, not so much. LaRoche also has been remarkably consistent since taking over as the starting first baseman for the Atlanta Braves in 2005.  Playing in Pittsburgh, Boston and Arizona in the past few years it has mattered little where he puts his bags. He shows up to play every day with almost no time off for injuries. Willingham lost significant time in two of his five seasons to injury and almost half of last year in DC.

LaRoche’s consistency and defense make his salary look like smart money indeed and no one will be happier to see that money spent than the Nationals pitching staff and shortstop Ian Desmond who will now have a steady glove at first base to replace Adam Dunn. Dunn cannot be faulted for lack of effort in 2010, but his defense is no where near that of LaRoche.

The only question is replacing Dunn’s bat.  Jayson Werth and LaRoche will bat in the middle of the Nationals lineup in place of Dunn and Willingham. Given Willingham’s inconsistency it is a bit of an upgrade. But the real difference can be seen by looking at the outfield the Nationals will field in 2011.

It is important to remember that on Opening Day in 2010 the Nationals outfield was Willie Harris in right, Nyjer Morgan in center and Josh Willingham in left.  Although President Obama was there, the rest of the day and most of April was a humiliation.  The starting outfield in April 2011 will be Werth-Morgan-Morse. It will be so much more athletic and talented than last year’s starting trio and backing them will be a very talented Roger Bernadina who can play all three spots well.

Bernadina and Werth both have the speed and arm strength to play all three outfield spots and Morse can certainly play ably in either corner, as well as occasionally at first base. Willie Harris and Willingham were versatile but limited when they shifted to other spots on the diamond. Now Jim Riggleman will have interchangeable pieces that play well wherever they go.

The remaining question the Lerners and Mike Rizzo must answer is the Opening Day pitching staff. If the season started today the rotation would be Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Livan Hernandez, and two from the following three: Yunesky Maya, Jordan Zimmermann and Chien-Ming Wang. Although it is not a dominant group by any stretch of the imagination, adding Carl Pavano does not render it appreciably better.  There are enough question marks already that adding another one seems gratuitous. A trade is still possible, but unlikely.

Barring a trade, the Nationals have to hope that Maya, Zimmermann and Wang step forward. Maya has pitched extremely well in Winter Ball in the Dominican–voted the Pitcher of the Year there for posting a 1.32 ERA, with 42 strikeouts and only nine walks in 41 innings.  Zimmermann and Maya have the potential to front the rotation until Stephen Strasburg returns. Zimmermann will only get stronger as he comes back from surgery and learns to pitch in the big leagues.  Wang’s sinker could be perfect for a lineup where defense is the watchword–if he is anything like the pitcher he was in 2007-2008.

To make sense of the pitching staff the best money the Lerners could spend would be to add another Matt Capps. Of the departing group, only Matt Capps’ place in the bullpen remains largely unfilled.  Drew Storen had an audition at the end of the 2010 season, but he needs more seasoning. The Nationals could pull their final surprise of this off-season and sign Raphael Soriano to a two-year deal to make the bullpen into one of the best in the National League. Putting an exclamation point at the end of a bullpen of Storen, Clippard, Burnett, Stammen and Kimball would help stretch the rotation, especially Zimmermann and Wang who need to take it slow in the early going. More that that, it would close out the best off-season that this city has seen since 1932.

Howard Bryant said the signing of Werth was “ridiculous” and Keith Law went full-bore Dick Cheney, saying it was something akin to treason. It is not intellectually challenging to discern that $200 million will buy Boston a chance at a pennant. But if I am shopping for melons in the real world–trying to decide which of the dark horses in the National League might pay “show” money–I might look to the Lerner’s for advice. Sometimes when the ESPN crew thump the melons, they thump back.

The Lerner’s got rid of Stan Kasten and are starting to spend their money on the Nationals 2011 roster.  My belief is something is going to happen there. We will just have to wait and see how “ripe” the Nationals turn out to be in 2011, but with Strasburg coming back in 2012, there is a distinct smell of money to this enterprise right now and for Nationals’ fans, it is a sweet smell indeed.