Pitchers and Catchers and Other Warm Thoughts

Pitchers and catchers report in a month. There will be a few more trades such as Vernon Wells going to Los Angeles, but rosters are pretty well set and it is time to start looking at the results. This early look at the NL East by  Mark Zuckerman provides an early chance to disagree with someone, which is what keeps the hot stove boiling.

I don’t see the solid Nationals bullpen Zuckerman does.  In fact they did not appreciably improve their bullpen in the off-season and it is the one thing that could limit their chances to climb in the standings in 2011.

Zuckerman’s thesis is that the Nationals off-season moves will move them ahead of the Mets in the NL East. It is damning by faint praise. One look at the Mets lineup and its near total collapse in 2011 makes it hard to believe a team with Jason Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche batting in the middle of the lineup will have much trouble in overtaking the anemic Mets. The Nationals should be looking to push past the very young Marlins, but first the Mets.

The poster child for the 2011 Mets is Carlos Beltran.  He  is a case study in why seven-year contracts to outfielders can be a bad business. The coming season will be his last in New York and GM Sandy Alderson must be counting the days.  Beltran has failed to provide any serious punch in the middle of the Mets lineup for the past two seasons and there is no reason to think that will change. After David Wright there is only Ike Davis with middle-of-the-order power. While Jose Reyes is a fine lead-off hitter, the Nationals should be able to score more runs than New York in 2o11.

However, not all of the money that Omar Minaya was dishing out was wasted. Johan Santanta is still one of the best pitchers in either league though he has been forgotten laboring in vain for the Mets. The Mets starting rotation will likely be better than that of the Nationals based on Santana and Mike Pelfrey’s presence at the top, but Santana is coming off shoulder surgery and not slated to pitch until late June or early July. That leaves Pelfrey alone for half of the season hoping that medical ward regulars like Chris Young and Chris Capuano can–along with young left-hander John Niese and knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey–form a reliable pitching staff. There is a lot of uncertainty about the Mets rotation and it could well have its share of issues.

The important feature of the Nationals staff is its relative good health. Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez and John Lannan may not break glass, but they are healthy, as are Tom Gorzelanny, Yunesky Maya and Jordan Zimmermann.  There is depth to the Nationals starting rotation. There are six healthy starters and that ignores Chien-ming Wang and Ross Detwiler who are coming off injuries, but could well be pitching in the majors before Johan Santana.

The problem for the Nationals will be Drew Storen and their bullpen. Some see Storen as ready to step forward.But like much of the bullpen, he is very young and unproven. Zuckerman looks at the Mets bullpen and sees problems, but Francisco Rodriguez’s issues last season were off the field. I might prefer my daughter to bring Drew Storen home to meet the Fockers, but I would much prefer to see Francisco Rodriguez coming out of the bullpen in the ninth inning. And Manny Acosta set up Rodriguez extremely well so I am not certain what problems exist in the Mets bullpen.

The strength of the Nationals very strong pen in 2010 was Matt Capps. After he left the entire Nationals pitching staff went south in a hurry. The pen is significantly better than in the team’s two disaster seasons when Joel Hanrahan and Chad Cordero torched every lead they were given, but it is not the strength that Zuckerman asserts it to be.

The league seemed to figure out Drew Storen quickly after the departure of Capps and Storen’s numbers in the second half of the season were extremely shaky. He is penciled in as the Nationals closer with Tyler Clippard and Henry Rodriguez behind him. Neither Storen nor Rodriguez is 24 years of age yet. Rodruiguez can light up the radar gun with 100 mph fastballs, but lacks control.

Storen has a 95 mph fastball, a killer curve and a slider. He had pinpoint control of the curve in the first half, but as the season wore on his ability to locate it waxed and waned.  Without the curve hitters sat on the fastball and ripped him for a 4.54 ERA in the second half of the 2010 season. As his struggles deepened manager Jim Riggleman occasionally turned to Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett to close out games.  Clippard had more problems than Burnett who was effective in the ninth inning with a lead and may be best suited to step into the closer role of all of the choices.

With Doug Slaten signed Riggleman has a situational lefty to free up Burnett for the ninth innings if he needs him. The Nationals also added Todd Coffey, but he is coming off a down season and will need to regain his form. If that fails, Colin Balester has proven he can throw hard out of the bullpen, but has yet to attain any more consistency in that role than as a starter. Overall, the strength of the Nationals bullpen seems oversold. The starters have adequate depth and experience to pitch longer into games than they did in 2010 and Riggleman may want to reduce his dependence on a young set of “closers in waiting.”

Some of the best moves GM Mike Rizzo made this year were to add depth to the Nationals bench which was atrocious last season. When Washington had to deploy a DH against American League teams it was embarrassing. Willie Harris failed to reach the Mendoza line and weak-hitting middle infielders like Adam Kennedy and Cristian Guzman filled the role too often. This season there will be platoon players in the outfield such as Michael Morse and Roger Bernadina. Backup catcher will go to either Wilson Ramos or Jesus Flores and both have offensive chops. Jerry Hairston will be another improvement over the bench players Jim Riggleman had at his disposal last season.

The bottom line is that the race for the bottom in the NL East will be a heated one. The Nationals have weaknesses but the ability to correct them is there. The Mets will be without their best player for half the season and there is nothing they can do but wait. The Marlins should not be counted out either. Mike Stanton is impressive and the Fish will have Josh Johnson back, but there are a lot of questions for young players like Chris Coghlan, Logan Morrison and Gabby Sanchez to answer.

It could be a much better season for the Nationals in 2011, but much will be riding on the shoulders of Drew Storen and a young bullpen. If they can limit the damage early, the Nationals could surprise. They could escape the NL East cellar again and build momentum for the foreseeable future.