2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview: Top Ten Sleepers (Part IV)

Different editors/writers have differing definitions of the term, “sleeper”. The concept has been watered down in the current fantasy baseball lexicon, probably because there are writers who can’t be bothered to do the analysis required to uncover real “sleepers”. In my opinion, rookies have no place on a sleeper list. They aren’t sleepers. They are prospects who are hoping to have a major league career. Thus, there aren’t any rookies on my list. [If you feel you HAVE to have a rookie on your sleeper list, start with Craig Kimbrel and/or Jordan Walden]

I also don’t consider guys like Drew Stubbs (CIN, OF) to be a sleeper. He had nearly 600 plate appearances, hit 22 HR and registered 30 SB last year. On what planet is a 20/20 guy a “sleeper”? Yet, I have read several lists on which he has been labeled a sleeper for 2011. IMHO, if you are playing fantasy baseball and you don’t know about what he has done, give up fantasy baseball… try fantasy legislators. Stubbs is not a sleeper! Ditto Brandon Morrow (TOR, RHP), who led all of the major leagues with a 13.01 K/9 in 2010, yet somehow still shows up on numerous sleeper lists heading into 2011.

I believe the guys on my list fit the classic definition of a “sleeper”. They are big leaguers who have not put up the kind of numbers that were expected of them. In most instances, their names are familiar to you, but you might look beyond them either because of poor performance, a lack of opportunity, or injury. For those reasons, they are guys who might otherwise fly under the radar at your 2011 auction / draft… thus, they are a “sleeper”. Don’t get caught napping on them in March.

Here are my Top Ten fantasy baseball sleepers for 2011, presented in five installments over five days (one batter and one pitcher in each installment).

Part I was presented Monday… Part II was presented Tuesday… Part III was presented yesterday… after today , the final installment will run tomorrow:

Ryan Raburn, DET:He is not especially well-known outside of Detroit… but he will be at some point.  In terms of his fantasy productivity in 2010, his performance was diminished by the fact the Tigers couldn’t decide where they should play him – at second base or in the outfield. For that reason, he had only 117 AB in the first half… as a result, his numbers lagged due to his sporadic opportunity. He was given consistent ABs after the all-star break and hit .315 with 13 HR.

His hit percentage for the year was high (34%), but his BABIP was only slightly above league-average, so it doesn’t necessarily seem that his .280 batting average was heavily influenced by luck… his xBA was .269.  He doesn’t walk a lot (6.6% for 2010) and strikes out a bit too much (22.4%), but his other peripherals are solid.

As the Tigers head to spring training, Raburn is their starting left fielder, which means you can expect 500 ABs, a decent BA, and 20+ HR for your investment.

James Shields, TB:Many of the comments made about Masterson the other day are also applicable to Shields, except that you’re not likely to get him in the 22nd round of your draft or as a $1 flier at the end of your auction – although you could.

He was 13-15, with a 5.18 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 2010… pretty ugly numbers for a guy who just two years earlier went 14-8/3.56/1.15 for the American League champions. While his BB/9 increased slightly (to 2.3) his K/9 jumped significantly (to 8.3), allowing him to maintain an impressive K/BB of 3.67 (good for the tenth-best mark in baseball).

Like Masterson, Shields was also the victim of some bad luck last year, as evidenced by his .344 BABIP… and like Masterson, the differential between ERA and FIP (4.24) was one of the highest in the game (0.94, 3rd in MLB).

The Rays lost lots of players through free agency this winter and the re-building process has begun. They will need Shields to re-discover some of his past glory if they are to have ANY chance of competing with Boston and New York in the AL East this season. His performance is likely to be much better, although it is a stretch to think he will approach his 2008 level of success.