AL East Positional Analysis And Ranking: Catcher

Over the next two weeks, I’ll examine the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the AL East, on a position-by-position basis. The players at each position will be ranked in relation to their peers withing the division, with each team being assigned points based on where their player ranks in comparison to the other players. Today, I begin the series with a look at the catchers .

The best player will earn 10 points for his team, with the remaining players being assigned points as follows: 7-5-3-1.

At the end of the process, I will accumulate all of the points for each team and create a divisional power ranking.

Analysis / Ranking:

 

These are the basic fantasy stats for the AL East catchers in 2010, along with OPS+ and RAR (Runs Above Replacement)

#1: John Jaso, TB

Jaso’s presence atop this list may say more about the status of the position in the division than it does about Jaso’s ability. The position leaves a little to be desired, at least until Jesus Montero takes over in New York, and until he and JP Arencibia (TOR) manage to establish themselves as regulars.

Jaso’s xBA suggests he’ll hit league-average. His ridiculously high walk rate (15%) in ’10 enabled him to garner the fourth-highest OBP among catchers with at least 400 ABs, ahead of such notables as Posey and Victor Martinez. He won’t hit for much power, but he may find himself hitting near the top of the batting order once again in 2011 (half of his ABs came batting leadoff last season).

For fantasy owners: Watch the Rays in spring training. If he remains entrenched near the top of the batting order, he’ll get plenty of chances to drive home runs and score. He will also steal 6-8 bases. These factors give him decent value in AL-only leagues.

2. Matt Wieters, BAL

Wieters’ arrival in The Show in 2009 was highly anticipated, and while he didn’t live up to expectations he was good enough (.288, 9 HR, 43 RBI in 354 AB). Pundits expected that his performance would improve last year en route to becoming one of the league’s top backstops, but he did not make the progress that was anticipated. Many fantasy owners view last year as an abysmal failure, but it says here that view is inaccurate and that better days are ahead. After hitting .236 in the first half, Wieters hit .266 during the 2nd half and showed increased power (his PX was 111 after the all-star break). His contact and walk rates increased while his strikeout rate decreased. He was one of only eight catchers to accrue 11 HR and 55 RBI last year, and while he has yet to reach status as an elite catcher, his skill set could come together quickly — making him a threat to be the top catcher in the division.

For fantasy owners: you should expect him to last longer in your drafts and / or cost less in your auctions than he did last year, due to last season’s struggles. He is only 24 years old… there is value here.

3. JP Arencibia, TOR

Arencibia’s calling card is his power, which grades a 70 on the 20-80 scale and is (at least) above-average to all fields. He is not disciplined at the plate. He rarely draws a walk, so he’ll struggle to hit league-average. He gets excellent lift on the ball (58% FB rate) but his line-drive rate (13%) and strikeout rate (20%) suggest he struggles with pitch selection, and in the American League East that could spell doom for a free-swinger. He can be pitched to.

His defense is average, at best. While he has a strong arm, his ball-handling and blocking skills are not very good… but they are improving.

For fantasy owners: If you need power, feel free to grab Arencibia – especially in consideration of the way balls flew out of Rogers Centre last year. Just make sure you have Joe Mauer and Ichiro Suzuki to offset his BA. Expect a .240 BA and 25 HR in 2011.

4. Russell Martin, NYY

The former all-star has seen his productivity decline in each year since 2007 and found himself without many suitors when he hit free agency this winter. He landed in New York City, where the ballpark could serve to help boost his faltering statistics. His batting average will almost-certainly be below league-average (his xBA was .256 last year with Los Angeles), but his walk rate remains strong (13% in 2010), so he should get a fair number of stolen base opportunities.

For fantasy owners: Martin is not going to be a 15-15 guy again, but 10 HR and 10 SB is not out of the question. He is a #2 catcher in mixed leagues and is a mid-range #1 option in AL-only leagues.

(NOTE: Some readers will object to the presence of Martin on this list as opposed to Jesus Montero. At this point, I’m not convinced Montero will start the year with the parent club. The Yankees website doesn’t have Montero listed on its depth chart, so Martin gets the nod.)

5. Saltalamacchia, BOS

“Salty” is damaged goods in the eyes of many fantasy baseball observers, but it is important to remember that he’s just 25 years old and was once viewed with such high regard that he was one of the key pieces in the trade that sent Mark Teixeira from Texas to Atlanta back in 2007 (along with SS Elvis Andrus and RHP Neftali Feliz). Last year was a lost season for the new Red Sox catcher, as he suffered from physical ailments and a mental block that made it difficult for him to throw the ball back to the pitcher.

For fantasy owners: He will almost certainly go cheap in your fantasy drafts and could turn out to be a great value. The Red Sox are banking that he still owns the skill set he demonstrated in the minor leagues back in ’06-’07, but until he shows more than he did last year I can’t recommend him. Spring training will be key to his fantasy fate. Regardless, he is nothing more than a #2 fantasy catcher in AL formats and should be ignored in Mixed-League formats… for now.