The Plot Thickens

Major League Baseball has often been charged with a lack of competitive balance serious enough to make pennant races predictable. It was as if the plot lines driving each season were as formulaic as a bad Hollywood script.  After reading the first few pages, you could tell the winners and losers without breaking a sweat. And yes the Yankees have the best record in the American League and the Phillies are the overall winners in the NL. Who could have seen that coming?

Swimming against that tide have been excellent plot lines like the  ”last to first” tag. When Jim Leyland led the 2006 Detroit Tigers to the World Series, he pioneered the concept. Those Tigers had risen from historic futility–a .265 winning percentage in 2003–to the top of the American League in a scant three seasons. This year we have the Arizona Diamondbacks who failed badly in 2010 but lead the NL West and have to be the most unlikely team to make the October playoffs looming on the horizon.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have done all of the right things quietly. Their August trade for Aaron Hill did not so much ignite the team as fan the flame. He was traded to Arizona on August 23rd. Since then, the team has won 17 and lost only 3.  It is a sizzling pace and the best in baseball for that span of games. Peaking at the right time?

The Diamondbacks went from being a good team giving the San Francisco Giants a run for their money in early August to a dead lock cinch to win the NL West with an 8.5 game lead as of this morning. Faced with the daunting challenge of Stephen Drew out for the season and Kelly Johnson having a miserable year at the plate, GM Josh Byrnes dealt for Hill and some how it has clicked.

Hill has thrived with his new team and his presence coincides with the remarkable turnaround. He has hit .318 since the trade, slugged .482, provided important punch at the top of the order, and played a very steady second base. Maybe it is the return to his roots in the southwest, or just that he is healthy again, but he has turned around his season as well as that of the Diamondbacks.

In recent years, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the perennial dragon slayers, competing successfully against the Yankees and Red Sox in the best division in baseball. Their recent winning streak was the only thing that even remotely smelled like pennant fever and they are still four full games back for the American League Wild Card slot. Could they beat the Red Sox coming down the wire and upstage Arizona? Yes, but it will take a lot of things going their way in the last weeks.

If the Rays falter, that  leaves Arizona standing alone wearing the mantle of dark horse. It is one they have earned the old fashioned way. They have been wandering in the desert for the past two seasons. They dropped to a .401 winning percentage in 2010–the third worst record in baseball. In June of that year, with the major league club playing dismally,  they compounded their problems by being unable to sign first round draft pick Barrett Loux because he failed his physical.

But the makeover has been complete. This year they used a compensation pick for Loux to take two of the best pitching talents, Trevor Bauer and Archie Bradley, in June, 2011. Bauer was chosen third overall and is thought to be an advanced prospect who could be pitching in the majors next June. Bradley is one of the best high school pitchers to come along in several years, but it is Bauer who could join Ian Kennedy at the top of the rotation in 2012 and provide Arizona with their best one-two combination since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.

There really is no need to project next year’s team. The 2011 Diamondbacks are perfectly good as they stand. Ian Kennedy is one of the best best young pitchers in the NL and with Dan Hudson they give the team plenty of top-of-the-rotation magic already. Hudson is 24 and Kennedy 26. Can they compete with Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay? I doubt the odds will favor them in a head-to-head matchup, but they will still play the games.

The Diamondbacks offense has been as good as anyone’s in the NL.  Justin Upton is having a huge year. Upton broke out in 2009, but slumped last year. This season he is one of the top offensive players not named Pujols or Matt Kemp. He has reached the 30 home run mark and has 21 steals. He will end up with close to 100 runs batted in.  Miguel Montero bats in the cleanup spot and while he does not instill fear as a Pujols, Ryan Howard, or Prince Fielder would, he has produced in the clutch with 81 RBI.

It may just be that the balls are dropping for the Diamondbacks. They may plummet to earth at the end of September and be gone from the playoffs as quickly as the summer heat. But they have a manager named Kirk Gibson and there is no one who exudes playoff drama like Gibson. So I am going to be watching them, waiting to see if this is the year.

Regardless how they do in October, this looks like a team that could be around for the long term. I like a rotation of Kennedy, Hudson and Bauer next September. And with a manager like Kirk Gibson, there is that sense of excitement lurking just around the corner. That’s the way the best plots unfold, with bold but unlikely heroes. Baseball has never tired of those guys. I am betting there are a few more waiting in the wings this October.