Fun With Retrosheet: Do Only Slow Runners Ground into a Lot of DPs?
December 16, 2011 by Tom Ruane · 6 Comments
There was a discussion recently on SABR-L about whether we can reliably determine that a player was slow from his offensive statistics. Several markers were proposed: low stolen base totals, a poor SB success rate, and few triples were some of those that were mentioned. So was a high number of grounded into double-plays (GIDP). During the discussion that followed, one of the contributors mentioned that Jackie Jensen had set the major league record (since broken) when he grounded into 32 DPs in 1954 , but also hit seven triples and had a league-leading 22 stolen bases with an above average (75.9) success rate. Someone else then suggested that perhaps Jensen simply had an extraordinarily high number of GIDP opportunities that year, what with Ted Williams (an OBP machine) hitting in front of him much of the year . Mike Lynch (of Seamheads fame) then contacted me and suggested that it might be nice if we had some, you know, actual data on the subject.
So here’s what I did: for each player’s season from 1952 to 2011, I computed his total plate-appearances (PA), the number of those where a GIDP was possible (GPA), the number of ground-outs in those situations (GO), and the number of times he grounded into a double-play (GIDP). I also computed the percentage of plate-appearances in situations where a GIDP was possible, the percentage of those plate-appearances that resulted in a ground-out, and the percentage of those ground-outs that resulted in a GIDP.
So let’s start with Jackie Jensen’s 1954 season:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Jackie Jensen 1954 BOS A 674 179 .266 53 .296 32 .604 League Rank 7 3 4 1 5 1 2
In the percentage categories, a minimum of 500 plate appearances was used.
So it seems that the record was a combination of Jensen being among the league leaders in all three risk factors:
1) He was fourth in the league in the percentage of plate appearances with a man on first and less than two outs. The players ahead of him:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Ted Williams 1954 BOS A 526 145 .276 27 .186 11 .407 Minnie Minoso 1954 CHI A 676 183 .271 45 .246 20 .444 Mickey Vernon 1954 WAS A 674 180 .267 37 .206 9 .243
2) He was fifth in the league in the percentage of ground-outs in these situations. Again, those ahead of him:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Al Kaline 1954 DET A 535 137 .256 50 .365 21 .420 Dave Philley 1954 CLE A 522 125 .239 40 .320 16 .400 Spook Jacobs 1954 PHI A 565 72 .127 23 .319 7 .304 Jim Finigan 1954 PHI A 547 108 .197 34 .315 17 .500
And perhaps most importantly:
He trailed only one other player in the league in the percentage of those ground-outs that resulted in double-plays:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Harvey Kuenn 1954 DET A 696 111 .159 30 .270 19 .633
So I’m not sure how to reconcile his obvious speed with his lack of success in beating out potential double-play grounders. I mean, 36-year-old first-baseman Mickey Vernon, with one stolen base in five attempts that season (although he did have fourteen triples), was doubled-up only 9 out of 37 times, a huge improvement over Jensen’s rate.
Here are some historic extremes in this data. Let’s start with the players from 1952 to 2011 with the highest percentage of ground-outs in these situations that resulted in double-plays:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Mark McGwire 1996 OAK A 548 106 .193 15 .142 14 .933 Mike Piazza 2004 NY N 528 97 .184 16 .165 14 .875 Rocky Colavito 1966 CLE A 614 97 .158 28 .289 24 .857 Dale Murphy 1990 2 tms 629 103 .164 26 .252 22 .846 Jim Edmonds 2003 STL N 531 105 .198 13 .124 11 .846 Carlos Lee 2010 HOU N 649 121 .186 24 .198 20 .833 Bobby Darwin 1972 MIN A 562 121 .215 29 .240 24 .828 Dave Kingman 1975 NY N 543 100 .184 16 .160 13 .812 Manny Ramirez 2002 BOS A 518 91 .176 16 .176 13 .812 Mike Piazza 2002 NY N 541 121 .224 32 .264 26 .812
And the other end of the spectrum:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Dick McAuliffe 1968 DET A 658 78 .119 14 .179 0 .000 Rob Deer 1990 MIL A 511 87 .170 8 .092 0 .000 Craig Biggio 1997 HOU N 744 78 .105 13 .167 0 .000 Richie Ashburn 1953 PHI N 604 117 .194 34 .291 1 .029 Ichiro Suzuki 2009 SEA A 678 93 .137 25 .269 1 .040 David Justice 1992 ATL N 571 106 .186 24 .226 1 .042 Curtis Granderson 2009 DET A 710 106 .149 24 .226 1 .042 Michael Bourn 2009 HOU N 678 80 .118 23 .287 1 .043 Carl Crawford 2010 TB A 663 132 .199 37 .280 2 .054 Kenny Lofton 2002 2 tms 611 86 .141 18 .209 1 .056
With the exception of Rob Deer, who hit only eight ground-outs all year with a man on first and less than two outs, all of the people on the second list are a lot faster than those on the first.
Here are the players who were at risk of grounding into a double-play in the highest percentage of their plate-appearances:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Paul O'Neill 1995 NY A 543 169 .311 41 .243 25 .610 Ted Williams 1958 BOS A 517 160 .309 40 .250 21 .525 Minnie Minoso 1953 CHI A 657 198 .301 46 .232 24 .522 Earl Torgeson 1954 PHI N 544 162 .298 29 .179 11 .379 Jim Rice 1983 BOS A 689 201 .292 51 .254 31 .608 Ted Williams 1956 BOS A 503 144 .286 31 .215 13 .419 Jim Rice 1984 BOS A 708 202 .285 58 .287 36 .621 Frank Thomas 1996 CHI A 649 183 .282 33 .180 25 .758 Stan Musial 1953 STL N 512 144 .281 35 .243 10 .286 Jim Rice 1985 BOS A 608 171 .281 45 .263 35 .778
Since major league baseball started keeping track of GIDPs, there have been eleven seasons of more than thirty. Jim Rice is responsible for three of them (including the top two) and all three show up on this list.
The players with the fewest GIDP opportunities:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Tim Foli 1980 PIT N 540 33 .061 10 .303 5 .500 Luis Castillo 2001 FLA N 612 52 .085 16 .308 6 .375 Juan Pierre 2006 CHI N 750 65 .087 17 .262 6 .353 Don Kessinger 1967 CHI N 628 55 .088 10 .182 3 .300 Fernando Vina 2001 STL N 690 63 .091 17 .270 7 .412 Bill North 1980 SF N 500 46 .092 12 .261 4 .333 Matty Alou 1969 PIT N 746 70 .094 22 .314 5 .227 Willie Wilson 1979 KC A 640 61 .095 10 .164 1 .100 Pete Rose 1971 CIN N 709 68 .096 20 .294 9 .450 Pete Rose 1978 CIN N 731 70 .096 19 .271 8 .421
All of these players hit leadoff except for Tim Foli. But he hit second behind Omar Moreno, a player whose low on-base percentage and 129 steal attempts kept first base unoccupied for Foli most of the season.
Here are the players who grounded out the most in these situations:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Roberto Clemente 1968 PIT N 557 81 .145 39 .481 13 .333 Rey Ordonez 1996 NY N 530 96 .181 46 .479 12 .261 Billy Ripken 1988 BAL A 559 88 .157 41 .466 14 .341 Willie McGee 1993 SF N 519 86 .166 40 .465 12 .300 Enos Cabell 1979 HOU N 630 94 .149 42 .447 18 .429 John Wathan 1982 KC A 502 101 .201 45 .446 26 .578 Maury Wills 1960 LA N 559 70 .125 31 .443 11 .355 Roberto Clemente 1963 PIT N 642 143 .223 63 .441 23 .365 Julio Franco 1987 CLE A 560 116 .207 51 .440 23 .451 Davey Lopes 1974 LA N 613 66 .108 29 .439 10 .345
And the least:
Player Year Team PA GPA Pct GO Pct GDP Pct Rob Deer 1986 MIL A 546 117 .214 8 .068 4 .500 Howard Johnson 1989 NY N 655 127 .194 10 .079 4 .400 Jose Valentin 1996 MIL A 628 139 .221 11 .079 4 .364 Mark McGwire 1998 STL N 681 137 .201 11 .080 8 .727 Ellis Burks 1987 BOS A 606 72 .119 6 .083 1 .167 Jonny Gomes 2010 CIN N 571 132 .231 11 .083 4 .364 Chris Young 2011 ARI N 659 114 .173 10 .088 3 .300 Reggie Smith 1978 LA N 531 100 .188 9 .090 4 .444 Rob Deer 1988 MIL A 556 98 .176 9 .092 4 .444 Rob Deer 1990 MIL A 511 87 .170 8 .092 0 .000
Of course, neither of these last two lists tell us much about the speed of the players, only about their tendencies to strike, ground or fly out. Fast players are often encouraged to make contact and hit the ball on the ground, so the first list contains a somewhat faster group of players than the second.
The seasonal data (in csv format) for all players from 1952 to 2011 with at least 200 plate appearances can be found here .
What if you limited the study to balls in play? Wouldn’t that give us a better indication of the speed of the runners? If you just use PAs as the denominator, extreme TTO guys like Deer are going to show up. But if you use (PA-BB-HBP-HR-SO) you’ll get a much, much better denominator, if what you’re trying to find is a player’s speed. I would strongly recommend running the study again with this adjustment, as I think the results would be much more instructive.
@David – This is already taken care. There are three risk factors at play here: 1) how often do players get up in DP situations (using plate appearances), 2) how often do players hit ground-outs in these situations (which takes care of the TTO guys), and 3) how often do those ground-outs result in DPs (which is the only indicator that really focuses on speed).
Dick McAuliffe did not hit into a DP in 1968. In 1967 he hit into just one, with two men on base and one out in the ninth innning of the last game of the year. He had a chance to win the game for the Tigers which would have forced a playoff game for the AL pennant. This is according to my memory, so don’t bet on it please.r
@rob – Actually, he hit into two, both in the last five games of the season. His game-by-game batting log for 1967 is at:
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1967/Imcaud1010081967.htm
And his second GDP was exactly as you described.
@Tom Ruane – Tom, where are you finding the GO by these batters with a runner on 1st and less than 2 outs? When I look at the splits in baseball-reference.com, I can see the TPA with a runner on 1st and less than 2 outs, but not the groundouts in that circumstance.
@Joe Taxiera – Joe, I parsed the event files available from retrosheet. baseball-reference uses the same source files, but perhaps they don’t make the ground-out/fly-out data available.