Who Were the Most Productive Offensive Players in 2011?
December 29, 2011 by Bill Gilbert · 1 Comment
Numerous methods have been devised to measure offensive performance. The most common are batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average. Since none of these averages provides a complete picture by itself, a more comprehensive measure of offensive performance is useful. Such a measure would include the following elements:
- The ability to get on base.
- The ability to hit with power.
- The ability to add value through base running.
The first two elements are measured by on-base percentage and slugging average. A measure of offensive performance, which encompasses both as well as baserunning achievements, is Bases per Plate Appearance (BPA). This measure accounts for the net bases accumulated by a player per plate appearance. It is calculated as follows:
BPA = (TB + BB + HB + SB – CS – GIDP) / (AB + BB + HB + SF)
- Where: BPA = Bases per Plate Appearance
- TB = Total Bases
- BB = Bases on Balls
- HB = Hit by Pitc
- SB = Stolen Base
- CS = Caught Stealing
- GIDP = Grounded into Double Plays
- AB = At Bats
- SF = Sacrifice Flies
The numerator accounts for all of the bases accumulated by a player, reduced by the number of times he is caught stealing or erases another runner by grounding into a double play. The denominator accounts for the plate appearances when the player is trying to generate bases for himself. Sacrifice hits are not included as plate appearances, since they represent the successful execution of the batter’s attempts to advance another runner.
Major league BPA for the past fifteen years are shown below along with the number of players with BPA over .550 and .600:
Year | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
BPA | .463 | .463 | .479 | .481 | .468 | .457 | .461 | .468 | .456 | .470 | .463 | .458 | .461 | .446 | .442 |
.550 | 34 |
41 |
50 |
50 |
46 |
39 |
42 |
33 |
34 |
46 |
34 |
41 |
42 |
19 |
25 |
.600 | 15 |
22 |
29 |
30 |
26 |
17 |
15 |
18 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
11 |
16 |
7 |
7 |
Offensive production peaked in 2000 before declining in the early years of this century. BPA in 2011 was down slightly from 2010, an 8.1% reduction from the peak in 2000.
In the 1990s, there were 14 individual .700 BPA seasons. In the eight year period from 2000 to 2007, there were 18. The highest BPA in the 1990s was recorded by Mark McGwire in 1998 (.799) .Barry Bonds shattered that with .907 in 2001, the highest figure ever recorded, topping Babe Ruth’s best two years (1920 and 1921). Bonds followed that with .869 in 2002, .818 in 2003 and .882 in 2004. There have not been any hitters with a BPA of .700 since 2007. The last player to make it was Alex Rodriguez (.702) in 2007. Surprisingly, Albert Pujols has not had a .700 BPA in his eleven seasons.
The .700 BPA seasons in 2000-2011 are listed below:
Player | Team |
Year |
BPA |
---|---|---|---|
Barry Bonds
|
San Francisco | 2001 |
.907 |
Barry Bonds
|
San Francisco | 2004 |
.882 |
Barry Bonds
|
San Francisco | 2002 |
.869 |
Barry Bonds
|
San Francisco | 2003 |
.818 |
Sammy Sosa
|
ChicagoCubs | 2001 |
.758 |
Barry Bonds
|
San Francisco | 2000 |
.745 |
Jim Thome
|
Cleveland | 2002 |
.728 |
Manny Ramirez
|
Cleveland | 2000 |
.726 |
Todd Helton
|
Colorado | 2000 |
.720 |
Luis Gonzalez
|
Arizona | 2001 |
.713 |
Todd Helton
|
Colorado | 2001 |
.709 |
Carlos Delgado
|
Toronto | 2000 |
.709 |
Larry Walker
|
Colorado | 2001 |
.707 |
Jason Giambi
|
Oakland | 2000 |
.706 |
Travis Hafner
|
Cleveland | 2006 |
.703 |
Alex Rodriguez
|
NY Yankees | 2007 |
.702 |
Jason Giambi
|
Oakland | 2001 |
.700 |
Ryan Howard
|
Philadelphia | 2006 |
.700 |
The yearly leaders since 1992 are as follows:
1992 | Bonds | .734 | 1993 | Bonds | .740 | |
1994 | Bagwell | .768 | 1995 | Belle | .692 | |
1996 | McGwire | .765 | 1997 | Walker | .770 | |
1998 | McGwire | .799 | 1999 | McGwire | .735 | |
2000 | Bonds | .745 | 2001 | Bonds | .745 | |
2002 | Bonds | .907 | 2003 | Bonds | .869 | |
2004 | Bonds | ,882 | 2005 | Derek Lee | .699 | |
2006 | Hafner | .703 | 2007 | A. Rodriguez | .702 | |
2008 | Pujols | .685 | 2009 | Pujols | .696 | |
2010 | Bautista | .671 | 2011 | Bautista | .681 |
The benchmark for an outstanding individual season is .600. Following is a list of 7 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title and with a BPA of .600 in 2011.
Player | 2011 BPA | 2010 BPA | League | Seasons | Comments |
Bautista, J. | .681 |
.671 |
AL |
2 |
Second straight year at top |
Braun, R. | .663 |
.535 |
NL |
3 |
Filled the stat sheet |
Kemp, M. | .647 |
.476 |
NL |
1 |
Big-time breakout season |
Cabrera, Mi. | .615 |
.642 |
AL |
3 |
Consistently near the top |
Granderson, C. | .614 |
.534 |
AL |
2 |
Found power against lefties |
Fielder, P. | .610 |
.555 |
NL |
3 |
Had better year than Pujols |
Ellsbury, J | .607 |
.361 |
AL |
1 |
Found a power stroke |
The only repeaters from last year’s list are Bautista and Cabrera. Bautista topped the list in both years. Pujols had a BPA of .548, by far the lowest of his career, ranking 27 tth among qualifiers. Five other players had a BPA over .600 in 2010 but fell short in 2011.
Player | 2010 BPA | 2011 BPA | League | +.600 Seasons | Comments |
Votto, J. | .657 | .576 | NL | 2 | Not quite up to 2010 MVP season |
Hamilton, J. | .653 | .559 | AL | 1 | Held back by injuries again |
Pujols. A. | .634 | .548 | NL | 8 | Down year would be career for most. |
Gonzalez, C. | .632 | .576 | NL | 1 | Not quite up to 2010 season |
Konerko, P. | . 613 | .551 | AL | 1 | Another strong late-career season |
Six players have a BPA over .600 for their careers:
Player | Age | 2011 BPA | Career BPA | Comments |
Albert Pujols | 31 |
.548 |
.641 |
Easily the best in 2000-2009 decade |
Alex Rodriguez | 35 |
.500 | .617 |
Signs of a decline |
Manny Ramirez | 39 |
.059 | .617 |
Great career down in flames |
Jim Thome | 40 |
.531 | .615 |
600 HR cinchesHOFspot |
Lance Berkman | 35 |
.598 | .602 | Still a tough out |
Ryan Braun | 27 |
.663 | .602 |
2012 season in question |
Another list of interest is of players with a BPA of over .600 in 2011 who did not have enough plate appearances (PA) to qualify for the batting title.
Player | Age | BPA | PA | Comments |
Brett Lawrie | 21 | .663 | 171 | Looks like an impact player |
Mike Napoli | 29 | .662 | 432 | Can he do it again |
Jason Giambi | 40 | .645 | 152 | Still hits with power |
Alejandro De Aza | 27 | .600 | 171 | Pleasant surprise for the White Sox |
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, sixteen players who earned enough playing time to qualify for the batting title had a BPA less than .400 in 2011. Ichiro Suzuki narrowly missed this list with a BPA of .400. Adam Dunn, with a BPA of .369 in 2011 and a career BPA of .580 would be on this list if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Player | BPA |
Comments |
Vladimir Guerrero | .398 |
Had 7 seasons with BPA over .600. |
Omar Infante | .396 |
Third straight year of decline. |
Miguel Olivo | .395 |
Only catcher on the list. |
Robert Andino | .392 |
First year as a regular. |
Danny Valencia | .390 |
Failed to repeat promising 2010 season. |
Alcides Escobar | .386 |
A repeater on this list. |
Gordan Beckham | .385 |
A major disappointment. |
Marin Prado | .385 |
Down from .474 in 2010. |
Mark Ellis | .382 |
First time below .400. |
Juan Pierre | .379 |
Career BPA of .445. |
DarwinBarney | .373 |
Tailed off in second half. |
Placido Polanco | .368 |
Career BPA of .425. |
Alex Gonzalez | .367 |
A candidate for this list every year. |
Yuniesky Betancourt | .366 |
Career BPA of .384 |
Jason Bartlett | .364 |
Had .572 BPA in 2009. |
Casey McGehee | .355 |
Season long slump from .473 in 2010. |
Alex Rios | .353 |
Even worse than Adam Dunn. |
Two players compiled a batting average over .300, an on-base average over .400, a slugging percentage over .500 and bases per plate appearance over .600 in 2011:
Player (2010) | BAVG | OBA | SLG | BPA | OPS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Bautista
|
.302 | .447 | .608 | .681 | 1.055 |
Miguel Cabrera
|
.344 | .448 | .556 | .615 | 1.033 |
Two active players have these numbers for their careers, although Manny Ramirez was active for only 17 plate appearances in 2011.
Player (Career) | BAVG | OBA | SLG | BPA | OPS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Albert Pujols
|
.328 | .420 | .617 | .641 | 1.037 |
Manny Ramirez
|
.312 | .411 | .585 | .617 | .996 |
The bases fallacy, alive and kicking, as always!
There are a lot of stats, like wOBA that do a better job of measuring and weighting these exact same things.