A Vote for the Expanded Playoff Format
February 7, 2012 by Mike Lynch · Leave a Comment
Commissioner Selig is still determined to create a second Wild Card slot for the 2012 season. No team may be impacted by a possible second Wild Card chance more than the Washington Nationals. The window for this innovation in 2012 may be closing, but as the spring reporting date looms just days away, how many wins do the Nationals need to add to last year’s 80-81 finish to make the cut?.
Dave Cameron on FanGraphs Audio recently estimated the value of Edwin Jackson to Washington as an additional 2-3 wins in 2012. Perhaps as early as this coming fall, that seemingly insignificant sum is likely to be the difference in being a playoff team or sitting home. Cameron averaged out which teams would have qualified for a second wild card slot for the last ten years and arrived at a figure of an 88 wins in each league.
Looking over the 2011 NL standings shows that the Atlanta Braves would have qualified for the second wild card slot with 89 wins.
The question facing the Nationals this April can be framed thusly: ‘Can the return of Stephen Strasburg and Adam LaRoche, and the addition of Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Jackson translate into the 88-to-91 wins that will be necessary to propel the Nationals into the playoffs for the first time in their history?’
The Nationals are not the only team doing these calculations. The off-season moves by perennial Washington nemesis, the Miami Marlins, make the NL East one of the strongest divisions in baseball. But this season it is possible that three teams in the NL East could advance to the playoffs. Three teams might make the grade from among Washington, Atlanta, Miami and Philly for the 2012 post-season.
In 2011 both St. Louis and Milwaukee made the playoffs from the NL Central. St. Louis must fill in for Albert Pujols in 2012 and Milwaukee for Prince Fielder. That division will be made weaker by their departure as well as the uncertain status of Ryan Braun. In the NL West last yearArizona won with only 86 wins and no one there looks appreciably improved. The strengthened NL East compares extremely well.
Do the Nationals need Peter Bourjos in center to reach the baseball nirvana of post-season play in 2012? Perhaps not. With the improved offensive production that could flow from a healthy LaRoche and Zimmerman, and what could be the best pitching staff in the NL, the Nationals can reasonably expect to win 88 or more games. Will it be enough?
I don’t believe in crystal balls, but my drive to Viera in a few short weeks will be the most hopeful one yet and Bud Selig could make it sweeter still.
