Toeing the Rubber/Riding the Pine: Week #3‏

MUST START PITCHERS

Cliff Lee/Jordan Zimmerman/Kris Medlen/Josh Johnson/Lance Lynn/Doug Fister/Homer Bailey/Tommy Millone/Derek Holland/Ryan Dempster

MUST SIT PITCHERS

Kyle Kendrick/Eric Stutts/Dylan Aexlrod/Alex Sanabia/Aaron Laffey/Jonathan Sanchez/Mike Pelfrey/Jeff Francis/Jake Arrieta/Joe Blanton/Ubaldo Jimenez/Mark Buerhle/Wily Peralta/Ivan Nova/Juan Ncasio/Dillon Gee

THE TOUGH CALLS

“3-2 Count”

We are in week #3 and as far as double starts go it is a full lineup. Some teams have as many as seven games this week so there is an abundance of two start pitchers but because it is week #3 and not week #4 the quality of the doubles are pretty mediocre. The aces and even #3 caliber SP for most staffs were on double in week #1 or #2 and will probably be on double in week #4 or #5 which leaves us in week #3 with a whole bunch of mediocre pitchers, #4 and #5 pitchers or even call ups. I have given you a pretty big list of options and my opinions on who to start and who to sit. Good luck and lets PLAY BALL

Eric Bedard Hou @ Oak vs Cle

Bedard is going to get injured, that is just a fact of life if your an Eric Bedard owner but while he is healthy take advantage because he still has some ability and right now he is pitching pretty well. 7.1 innings, 5k’s 2BB’s .00 Era .55 Whip. It is a small sample size but deserving of a start in a two start week. Oakland and Cleveland are both good offensive teams (Oakland is on fire which feels odd to say) so the match-ups aren’t great but Bedard has earned a two start week start.

Start Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 6 of 10

K’s : 6 of 10

Wins : 4 of 10

Wade Leblanc Mia vs Was @ Cin

He plays for Miami but the peripherals are good. 10k’s and only 3 BB’s in 11 innings w/ 3.27 Era 1.27 Whip. He faces two strong offensive teams in Wash and Cincy and in the equivalent of a little league ballpark in Cincinnati. It seems almost a sure thing that he does NOT win a game this week and he runs a serious risk of blowing up your Era and Whip in spite of his nice start. The one saving grace that gets him on this list is 10k’s in 11 innings. If he can go 5 2/3 to 6 innings with a K per inning then you would probably want to start him with a cautious mindset as you set your lineup but I don’t feel overly confident he can do that so I am sitting him. I do admit that Leblanc is an intriguing idea for week #3 though so if you take pride in being the contrarian with hopes of looking like the genius, go ahead and give Leblanc a whirl. If he tanks (which he probably will) just tell your buddies you got greedy or he is blood relative or something self serving like that.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 4.5 of 10

K’s : 4.5 of 10

Wins : 2 of 10

Roberto Hernandez TB @ Bal vs Oak

Previously known as Fausto Carmona (great name and I am saddened to see it go and curious as to why, when creating a false identity, his family or representatives chose FAUSTO but that’s for another column on another day) he has struggled so far with 9 earned and 4 BB’s through 13.1 innings. Fausto wasn’t known as a strikeout pitcher but more of a ground ball guy while Roberto Hernandez so far IS known as a strikeout guy but I am not believing that transformation has happened. He faces two good lineups this week and you need to pitch very well to win for TB and so far Fausto/Roberto hasn’t.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 4 of 10

K’s : 5 of 10

Wins : 5.5 of 10

Aaron Harang Sea vs Det @ Tex

Harang started 2013 with an unknown role on the LAD pitching staff, then he was traded to Seattle and fantasy owners get to decide on an aging SP on a new team in a new league vs two of the better offensive teams in the American League, one at Safeco (good) and one in Texas (bad). In 2013 the K’s were not high but they weren’t terrible but so were the walks. A 3.81 Era isn’t so bad but a 1.40 Whip is not so good. Too Risky for me.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5 of 10

K’s : 5 of 10

Wins : 4 of 10

Jeremy Hellickson TB @ Bos vs Oak

Jeremy Hellickson is not a strikeout pitcher and it doesn’t look like he ever will be and while he had a strong Era in 2012 (3.10) he had the worst Whip of his career (1.25) and that was because he allowed 23 more hits in 12 less innings and so far in 2013 Hellickson has allowed more hits than innings pitched. That is not a good sign. It looks like the league is catching up to “The Crafty Righthander” and if he doesn’t make the adjustments needed he may be a guy to avoid for a while. This week I suggest you sit him. Boston at Fenway & Oakland are not teams you want to take a risk on a guy that is getting knocked around the ballpark. If you are looking for another reason Hellickson has really struggled vs lefties and both the A’s and Red Sox have their fair share of those as well. Hellickson is crafty and Fenway park is a nice park to have lefties hit well against you with the spacious right field and the Rays are a winning team so there are worse two start options out there but in order to start him first look in the mirror and admit that you are being greedy rather than prudent and then hit Submit. As long as you can do that then you can live with any fantasy baseball decision. Grip it and rip it.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5 of 10

K’s : 3.5 of 10

Wins : 4 of 10

Brandon McCarthy Ari @ NYY @ Col

Coming out of 2012 when he was hit in the head with a line drive a lot of fantasy owners seemed concerned that that kind of injury was one not so easy to overcome mentally and so far he has not pitched well. 19 hits and 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings doesn’t show well. Only two BB’s but maybe with that much contact being made a few pitches out of the zone would not be such a bad idea. In New York and Colorado isn’t the recipe for improvement. Arizona is playing decent baseball so wins are a possibility if he can manage to last long enough so for those desperate owners out there who need something to grasp at when you don’t want to admit to other owners in your league that you are completely gambling, there is one excuse. I like McCarthy eventually but I don’t like him right now.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 4 of 10

K’s : 4 of 10

Wins : 5.5 of 10

Felix Doubront Bos @ cle @ KC

Rain benefited or maybe cursed fantasy owners last week and so Doubront has a double start week and you have a difficult decision on your hands. To make things more difficult it is a Tuesday start and you need to be cautious about Tuesday starters on double. The Red Sox have 7 games this week, 4 in Boston and 3 in Cleveland which makes things even more complicated. Boston and Cleveland both have shaky weather this time of year and at least one rain out seems very possible but because the Sox play seven games it seems likely that even with a rain out Doubront will have to pitch twice but that is not a sure thing either. For me Doubront getting two starts is the key and I do think he will get them but I also do believe it is something owners need to consider. He will get his share of K’s, he will have a better than 50/50 shot of getting one if not multiple wins and there is at least a 50/50 shot that he pitches pretty well at least once and it seems unlikely that he pitches horribly even once but certainly seems unlikely that he is terrible twice. If you feel confident that he starts twice then start him, if you don’t sit him. I would say Start Him

Start Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 6 of 10

K’s : 7 of 10

Wins : 6.5 of 10

Gavin Floyz CWS @ tor vs Minn

13 hits in 11 innings is not a good start when analyzing an SP for any start. Toronto and Minn are good match-ups and Floyd has a chance to get a win in both starts if he can last 5 full but his early numbers are not good. The K’s are good but not enough to start him

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5 of 10

K’s : 6.5 of 10

Wins : 5.5 of 10

Bronson Arroyo Cin vs Phi vs Mia

Not a great start so far but like all pitchers this early in the year you need to realize how small a sample size we have so far. His K’s are good and he plays for a winning team in Cincy. Miami is a great match-up and Philly isn’t so bad. If you have a deep staff with high end one start SP I would sit Arroyo but if your relying on double start SP’s as a strategy then Arroyo is startable and I would suggest you do. Chasing wins is bad but when considering double starts it is a necessary evil.

Start Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5.5 of 10

K’s : 6 of 10

Wins : 6.5 of 10

Travis Wood Cubs vs Tex @mil

Wood has started out great in 2013, 1.46 Era 1.05 Whip and 10K’s in 12.1 innings which makes this a tough one. He has walked five hitters in 12.1 innings so that is a sign that maybe this won’t continue and I am a bit surprised to put it nicely at this kind of start from Wood, especially the strikeouts. The quality of his pitching in 2013 warrants a must start but the match-ups YELL stay away. I think he will have a tough week so my gut leans sit him but the K’s and the performance is extremely compelling and leads me to say start him. For me the deciding factor probably should be that it is unlikely that Wood gets a win so you are starting him for the strikeouts and the hope he also stymies a strong pair of offenses in Texas and Milwaukee. For me the risk isn’t worth the reward and I would sit him but it is truly a 50/50 call. the definition of “3-2 count.”

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5.5 of 10

K’s : 6 of 10

Wins : 3 of 10

James McDonald Pit vs Stl vs Atl

Bad match-ups for a mediocre pitcher on a struggling team who has 6 BB’s through 12 innings but also only 6 hits and 9 K’s makes for an interesting choice. At times McDonald can dominate and at times he can be pretty bad. I always think of Edwin Jackson when I think of James McDonald. I am starting him in a points league but I would sit him in a category league because in a points league the negative scoring is minimal while in a category league even a relatively bad but not miserable start can really hurt and a disaster can cripple you. This article is targeted at category leagues so I am rating his as a Sit.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5.5 of 10

K’s : 6.5 of 10

Wins : 4.5 of 10

Chad Billingsley vs SD @ Balt

Good start vs SD in his first outing of 2013 so no reason not to send him out there to try and do it again. He isn’t a gem or must start but he is a solid option in the right circumstances and double starts are the right circumstances more often than not, especially facing SD. Balt could be a rough night but if he holds his own or even gets a win then Billingsley could be a difference maker as a double start this week.

Start Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 6.5 of 10

K’s : 6 of 10

Wins : 7 of 10

Barry Zito SF @ Mil vs SD

An incredible start in two starts combined with SD on the ledger this week puts Zito as a MUST START but because MUST START and ZITO are two terms you don’t see in the same sentence very often I thought he warranted an explanation to bring him to readers attention. 14 innings 8K’s 4 BB’s .00 Era 1.00 Whip and two Wins. He should do well in all categories even with Milwaukee on the road on the schedule and with SD at home in Pac Bell park there is a good chance Zito ends the week with three or four wins and he could be a difference maker this week.

Start Him with a YIPPEE as you hit the submit button

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 6 of 10

K’s : 6 of 10

Wins : 8 of 10

Ryan Dempster Bos vs TB vs KC

Tampa Bay’s offense is terrible, Evan Longoria doesn’t even have an extra base hit yet and the Sox have already won two games in the series. KC has been hot but both starts being at Fenway Dempster could get two wins this week. Sweeping a team is always difficult and that is what Dempster will be facing him Monday morning so that is a concern on top of the natural fear of Dempster moving to the AL East this season. So far he has 15k’s in 10 innings so that should ease some of those fears and makes Dempster a Must Start. He could struggle some since he is a relative soft tosser or “crafty righty” as we like to say here at Seamheads.com but I feel confident in him as a double start this week.

Start Him with confidence

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 6 of 10

K’s : 7 of 10

Wins : 6.5 of 10

Jake Westbrook Stl @ Pit @ Phi

I only mention Westbrook here because in desperation fantasy owners will try to justify just about anything. Let me throw some numbers at you and ask you to ignore ERA because it only exists to torture us. 15.2 innings 10BB’s 4K’s 11 Hits. There must be a God because for an SP to have those kinds of peripherals there must be someone looking out for him. He has a 0.00 Era including a complete game against Cincy of all teams which is even more mind boggling so if you want your excuse to start him then I guess you got enough here to chew on but I would sit him. Pitt is a hitters park and so is Philly and both teams have their fair share of mashers. The fact that he faces Pitt also makes Westbrook somewhat intriguing. I see bad things happening this week here but there is also enough here to tempt the greedy side of our fantasy natures. Start him at your own risk, I am sitting him at mine.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5.5 of 10

K’s : 3.5 of 10

Wins : 6 of 10

Jeremy Guthrie KC @ atl @ Bos

I think Guthrie is one of the more underrated decent SP in baseball. He isn’t an ace and he was horrible in Colorado so his reputation wasn’t helped by his atrocious stretch in the thin air but he is a good strikeout pitcher throwing for a good Royals club and a veteran that threw pretty wlel on some bad staffs like Baltimore a few years back. This is a guy you can rely on to be solid with better than mediocre peripheral stats. Guthrie is the kind of pitcher that is made for double start weeks. I consider him almost a must start pitcher in most two start weeks and this one is no different. The match-ups aren’t good but I expect him to be ok with the potential to be better than just ok.

Start Him with Confidence

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 6 of 10

K’s : 6 of 10

Wins : 6 of 10

Kevin Correia Vs Laa @ CWS

Correia is a “Crafty Righty” and that often times means he is a smart pitcher who thinks he way solidly through a lineup but it also means he lacks “stuff” and when he is off then he can really be off. 2BB’s 3K’s in 14.1 innings tells the story pretty well. The Era and Whip are strong 3.14 and 1.19 and that was against Det and KC, two pretty good lineups. This week he faces two more pretty good lineups and even though I can see your justification in starting him the fact of the matter is even with two starts his strikeout totals will be sub par and probably less than a good one start SP and the same goes for wins, he is unlikely to get any and so I would sit him. The benefits of Correia pitching well don’t seem to be very special and if he does struggle then it could be very detrimental. On the plus side, he is pitching well and on two starts anything can happen, including a Twins win.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot rating :

Era/Whip : 5.5 of 10

K’s : 3 of 10

Wins : 3.5 of 10

Good luck in week #3 Fantasy Baseball Fans.

Look for my Daily Streaming articles appearing Thursday – Sunday discussing which pitchers to consider streaming for the final match-ups of week three and follow me on twitter @cjmitch73 for the weekly Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em chat all week long and live Sunday nights during the ESPN National Game of the Week beginning at 7pm Est.

Chris Mitchell
Contributing writer for Seamheads.com
Twitter : @cjmitch73
Facebook : Chris Mitch
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