Toeing The Rubber/Riding The Pine: 4/22/2013‏

Toeing The Rubber/Riding The Pine

Week four is a wrap around week in fantasy baseball. Most aces from week #1 have their second two start weeks of the season this week so pitchers like David Price and Felix Hernandez have two starts with one very notable exception, Justin Verlander.  Adding to the aces in this weeks two start crop is a very strong group of second tier of pitchers that are on double starts like Patrick Corbin and Jose Quintana and Wade Miley  and Wade Davis. This is an extremely strong week and constitutes a bit of an unfortunate problem, many owners will be forced to sit pitchers with two starts that are almost must start SP in one start weeks.  Week #5 and #6 could be barron days for owners while many owners will have an over abundance of riches this week. If your a league that starts 7-9 pitchers a week then this is the week you want to make hay.  Here are your two start debatables for Week #4 of “Toeing The Rubber/Riding The Pine”.

MUST START WEEK #4

Felix Hernandez/David Price/CC Sabathia/Matt Moore/Max Scherzer/Clayton Kershaw/Cole Hammels/AJ Burnett/Justin Masterson/Mike Minor/Yovani Gallardo/Derek Holland/ashji Iwakama/Ross Detwiler/Alexi Ogando

MUST SIT WEEK #4

Phil Hughes/Jason Vargas/Jon  Garland/Kevin Correia/Clayotn Richard/Joe Blanton/Dylan Axelrod/Brad Peacock/Jeff Francis/Jeff Locke/Jonathan Pettibone/Ryan Vogelsong/Jon Niese/Carlos Villanueva/Felix Doubront/Bud Norris/JA Happ/Mike Leake/Chris Tillman

R.A Dickey Tor  2-2 4.30/1.35 23 innings  20K’s   @Bal @Nyy

Dickey got a rough introduction to the AL East and he is listed in this article because I think there is a misconception in fantasy circles that Dickey is a risky start. He allowed three earned against Cleveland and SEVEN against Boston and then one vs KC and zero vs the White Sox. Subtract a very rough Boston outing and Dickey has allowed 4 earned in 16.2 innings. On top of that he has allowed 7 BB’s and 12 hits in those 16.2 innings and has K’ed 16.  Remove that Boston outing and Dickey is a clear MUST START.  He is @Balt and @NYY so he has tough match-ups this week but you don’t sit a must start pitcher on a double start week because of tough match-ups.

START HIM

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6 of 10

K’s : 6 of 10

Wins : 6.5 of 10

Shelby Miller STL  2-1 1.96 Era .87 Whip 18 innings 18K’s  @Wash vs Pit 

With his kind of early season numbers he should be listed as a MUST START but as a rookie it takes a bit longer to earn that designation… but he is a must start. He hits all the criteria. Nasty stuff that translates into good K totals and  dominant production and he pitches for a winning team. The match-ups aren’t great but they aren’t terrible to boot.

START the up and coming stud

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6.5 of 10

K’s : 7 of 10

Wins : 6.5 of 10

Dan Haren Wash  1-2 13.1 IP 12K’s 26 Hits  8.10 Era /2.03 Whip  vs Stl vs Cin

It baffled me to hear the national media narrative when the Washington Nationals let Edwin Jackson and his  189 innings/168K’s/4.03 Era/1.22 Whip hit the free agent market, they then added Dan Haren who multiple teams had already given up on and then the media narrative was that the Nationals got better.  Haren may have a comeback season in Washington in 2013 but to think Haren would have a better season in 2013 than Jackson had in 2012 is a bet that I will take every single time. NO WAY Haren has a better 2013 than Jackson had in 2012 and so far Haren looks terrible.  If his name wasn’t Dan Haren and he didn’t pitch for Washington then he would be on the MUST SIT list but because of the public misconception attached to Haren I thought his inclusion was needed here. He has an Era of over 8 and a Whip over 2. Do I need to say more?

MUST SIT

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  3.5 of 10

K’s : 6.5 of 10

Wins : 4 of 10

Travis Wood Cubs  1-1 19.2 inns  13K’s 1.83 Era 1.07 Whip   @Cin @Mia

Wood has been very good and you need to be starting Wood unless your staff is so deep that Travis Wood isn’t as good as all of your other two start SP.  The way he has pitched combined with a lot of Aces also on double start week #4 is a week where very few one start SP should get the nod over Wood on double. His Era and Whip are both pluses and his strikeouts are good enough not to be a minus when considering him for a start.  Add to that that he also faces Miami and he is a Must Start.  I realize Cubs pitchers don’t normally earn MUST START ratings but he has earned it so far.

 START with confidence

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6.5 of 10

K’s : 5.5 of 10

Wins : 6.5 of 10

Kyle Lohse Mil  0-1 20 IP 13K    2.70 Era .90 Whip   @SD @LAD

Lohse is similar to Travis Wood. If he falls far enough down your depth chart that you can’t find a spot for him then sit him but if your basing it on what you expect from Lohse then he has earned a start in double start weeks.  The strikeouts are a bit low, like Travis Wood, but the Era and Whip are pluses, he plays for a pretty good team in the Brewers, he pitches in two great pitchers parks this week and they face the Padres which should be a good chance at a W.

START with confidence

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6.5 of 10

K’s : 5.5 of 10

Wins : 7 of 10

Wade Miley Ari  2-0  19.1 IP 16K’s  2.79 Era 1.09 Whip  @SF vs Col

Patrick Corbin Ari  2-0 19IP 13K’s 1.42 Era 1.05 Whip  @SF vs Col

Miley and Crobin  are both  pitchers on a two start week pitching well., Corbin slightly better than Miley with slightly fewer K’s  Week #4 is loaded with good two start pitchers so guys like Miley and Corbin may need to get benched even though they don’t deserve to be.  Going in Miley’s favor over a couple of the other lower end guys on this list (Travis Wood and Kyle Lohse and teammate Patrick Corbin) is that Miley has better strikeout potential.  Going against both these guys is they face two very good teams in the Giants and the hot hitting Rockies.  I would sit Miley and Corbin if your debating between Wood and Lohse and Miley and Corbin because of the match-ups but if I had room for a double start SP then both these guys are deserving a start this week. The match-ups by themselves don’t warrant sitting them the way they have performed so far.

START him with confidence

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6 of 10

K’s : 7 of 10

Wins : 5 of 10

AJ Griffin Oak  2-0  20IP 13K 2.25 Era 1.15 Whip   @Bos vs Balt

Another pitcher performing well early in 2013. Very similar to Wood Lohse and Miley on this list but I would rank him slightly behind them because of the match-ups.  Fenway park, the strong Orioles lineup and lesser K potential than Miley makes him slightly behind these three other two start options but if your depth chart allows for Griffin then start him with confidence.

Start with Confidence

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6 of 10

K’s : 5.5 of 10

Wins : 6 of 10

Tony Cingrani Cincy  1-0  5IP 8K’s 1.80 Era 1.60 Whip 5Hits 3 BB’s   vs Cubs @Wash

In a week loaded with so many good two start options and the fact that Cingrani has had only one MLB start and that he is a Tuesday two start SP I am leaning confidently towards sitting him but the K’s OH THE K’s are tempting. 1.60 Whip is scary but pitching for the Reds with 8k’s in five innings sure makes you want to roll the dice. The concern for me is over his walks and hits, that he is a rookie, and that it would not be surprising if because of bad weather or to try and limit his innings that the Reds decide to push him back a few days so I can see Cingrani being listed as a double start today but only pitching once this week.

Sit him

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  5 of 10

K’s : 7.5 of 10

Wins : 7 of 10

Jose Quintana CWS   1-0  17.2 Inn 17K’s 2.55 Era 1.02 Whip    vs Cle vs TB 

Good match-ups after 17.2 strong innings with a K per inning makes Quintana extremely interesting.  Cleveland and TB are both under 500 and neither offense is tearing the cover off the ball and here comes a nasty lefty with high end K stuff in a week filled with good two start SP.  He is a MUST START in most weeks but with this week being such a strong week Quintana is oddly a risky play.  The sample size is small enough to have your doubts but the numbers are so impressive you can’t ignore them.  I would rank Quintana high on your depth charts to the point where I don’t think I can see how he wouldn’t start for you.  If he can’t get into your rotation this week then you need to look into making some trades to fill holes from your pitching depth.

Start him and look for him to be a difference maker

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  7.5 of 10

K’s : 7.5 of 10

Wins : 6.5 of 10

Bartolo Colon Oak  2-0 19IP 10K’s 0BB’s  3.32 Era 1.05 Whip  @Bos vs Balt

With the weight Bartolo is carrying around this week should be considered a quadruple start week and who doesn’t start on a FOUR start week?? All jokes aside, Colon has started well and I would be selling high if you can find someone to buy.  You can’t carry a second human out to the mound for 200+ innings.  On his side is Oakland is one of the best teams in baseball and one of the starts this week are home in Oakland where even mediocre pitchers make livings.  The strikeouts are not impressive but zero walks is very impressive with one concern, if he is around the zone THIS often isn’t he eventually going to get knocked around?  The stuff isn’t filthy and he lives on command of the fastball.  In most weeks I would start him but this week is so loaded with good double start options and my concerns combined with two tough match-ups I would sit him.  His performance deserves a start but this week I think you sit him.

Sit him

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6 of 10

K’s : 5.5 of 10

Wins : 6 of 10

Wade Davis KC 2-0 16 Inn 15K’s 2.25 Era 1.31 Whip   @Det vs Cle

The K’s are good, the Era is strong but the Whip leads me to believe its a house of cards. A 2.25 Era does not jive with a 1.31 Whip. Davis is averaging over a hit per inning but through sixteen innings he has only walked three. To me that means he has been hittable but around the plate and yet the runs have not come around to score.  To me that adds up to one conclusion: luck.  Like Bartolo Colon it concerns me. To play Devil’s advocate for Davis believers for a moment, 15k’s in 16 innings could mean that his stuff has been very good but he has had bad command within the zone which has led to hits but not a lot of good hard contact.  I am not one to go that in depth in order to try to find an excuse but if you are so inclined then there ya go.  Davis also faces Detroit which is a lineup that I don’t want to be making mistakes in the zone.  I am sitting Davis this week.

Sit Him because it is a strong week for SP and I see trouble brewing

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  6 of 10

K’s : 6.5 of 10

Wins : 6 of 10

Ricky Nolasco Mia  0-2  23.1 Inn 15K’s 23 Hits 3.86 Era 1.24 Whip    vs Tor vs Cubs

It is tough in such a strong week to start a Marlin, especially one allowing a hit per inning but I put him on here because he is on the fringes of startable.  If this was week #3 I would be telling you to start him but in week #4 I am sitting him and ranking Nolasco as one of the weaker two start debatable pitchers of the week. He isn’t MUST SIT but he is one of the weaker plays in a very strong week.

Sit Him

#WhoYaGot Rating : 

Era/Whip :  5.5 of 10

K’s : 5.5 of 10

Wins : 4 of 10

Good luck in week #4 Fantasy Baseball Fans.

Look for my Daily Streaming articles appearing Thursday – Sunday discussing which pitchers to consider streaming for the final match-ups of week four and follow me on twitter @cjmitch73 for the weekly Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em chat all week long and live Sunday nights during the ESPN National Game of the Week beginning at 7pm Est.

Chris Mitchell
Contributing writer for Seamheads.com
Twitter : @cjmitch73
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