What Could Bring the Scherzer Rumors to Life

The GM meetings this coming week will likely just be a first chance for some of the first off-season rumors to get wings or disappear. One that has a chance to grow is the notion that the Tigers would trade Max Scherzer. Rumors about Scherzer’s departure have been met generally with skepticism. Why mess with the success of having Justin Verlander and Scherzer pitching at the front end of the rotation in Detroit?

The first reason is the most obvious. Scherzer is a free agent after the 2014 season. And the Tigers have salary issues that will make it difficult for them to accommodate Scott Boras when he comes calling on Scherzer’s behalf. He probably already has talked to GM Dombrowski about signing the likely AL Cy Young Award Winner and that may be exactly where the rumor started.

Prince Fielder is just the tip of the salary ice berg heading for Detroit. The Tigers are obligated to pay Verlander, Cabrera and Fielder $66 million in 2014. When Anibal Sanchez’s salary jumps to $15 million for 2014, the Tigers total payroll will likely exceed $160 million for the season. Throw in the need for a closer along with how much more Scherzer will get in arbitration and anyone can see that Detroit may have money woes that may exceed their ability to meet them.  Sure, Tori Hunter and Victor Martinez come off the books at the end of 2014 and they may provide money to pay Scherzer. But things are getting tight in Detroit and something needs to give.

The other concern is that after Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez, the Tigers have only Drew Smyly and Rick Porcello to fill out the rotation. Porcello has had four seasons to audition and has not lived up to the hype. The Detroit farm system has very few pitching prospects with top of the rotation stuff, so there may well be reason to consider trading Max Scherzer or someone who can help replenish the threadbare cupboard in Detroit.

The team that is thought to have the most interest in acquiring Scherzer is the Washington Nationals. There is at least a superficial fit in that Washington has subtanial pitching depth from which to deal. They have both top notch minor league pitching prospects like A.J. Cole and three major league talents competing for two rotation spots. Ross Detwiler is coming off an injury marred season. Taylor Jordan pitched to 3.66 ERA over his first nine major league starts, and Tanner Roark pitched even better when he was inserted into the rotation after the Nationals shut Taylor Jordan down in September. Those three will fight for a chance to join a rotation likely to consist of StephenStrasburg, Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez.

To land Scherzer, Washington GM Mike Rizzo has to be willing to construct another trade like the one that brought over Gio Gonzalez. Oakland got four of the best prospects in the Nationals organization for Gonzalez. It will take even more to land Scherzer. From the Nationals perspective there is another huge issue. If Detroit cannot work a contract extension deal with Boras, what makes Rizzo think the Nationals can?

There are too many moving parts for a Scherzer trade to happen quickly. The Nationals would need to know a long term deal was possible. Boras would have to spell out something tentatively that was palatable to Washington ownership. A contract for Scherzer would be a whopper, so Washington would need to go all in.

If the money problems in Detroit made a trade likely, what would Washington have to pony up besides the money? It is likely that the Tigers would want pitching help and lots of it. The Nationals would have to part with something like either Detwiler or Taylor Jordan to fill Scherzer’s spot, and pitching prospects like Robbie Ray and/or Sammy Solis. There are other pieces that might join a trade like catching prospect Adrian Nieto and former major league second baseman Danny Espinosa. If the Nationals were willing to part with both Jordan and Detwiler, the Tigers would have two very credible chances to fill Scherzer’s spot and the chance for extra pitching depth as well. Throwing Espinosa and a lower level pitching prospect would likely be enough as it would be three major league players for one very good one. There is also former closer Drew Storen who might spark interest from the Tigers, but his stock has not recovered completely from a first half when he could neither close nor set up.

There is one wild card variable in this mix. Washington Nationals owner, Ted Lerner, is 88 years old.  He would like to see some kind of pennant flying over Nationals Park during his tenure and while one hopes that he has many years left for that to unfold, he is likely to push for sooner rather than later. The Nationals have the payroll room to fit Scherzer’s long term contract into their mix. They will have to give both Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond significantly more money in 2014 regardless whether they sign long term contracts or gain it in arbitration. But a salary level of approximately $125-130 million should allow room for a long term commitment to Scherzer of more than $20 million annually–which is what it will take.

In Matt Williams the Nationals have brought in a manager who the front office believes can craft a pennant winner. Adding a pitcher like Scherzer still seems improbable, but this is Washington, home of the most conventional of wisdom and the very improbable that makes us appreciate the conventional for what it is.