Building a Better Mousetrap in DC

Traditional analysts give great credence to building the proper batting order, while statistical analysts regard it as a secondary consideration at best.  Examining the performance of individual ball players over a lifetime yields little evidence that batting order is significant.  Was Ted Williams a better hitter when he hit third or fourth in the lineup?  Who cares really.  But when examining a specific team and how it performs offensively, the construction of a proper batting order becomes more important.

The Washington Nationals struggled offensively last season after very high expectations steam rolled them following their 2012 season in which they won 98 games and the NL East in 2012.  The failure can be traced to three sources: Adam LaRoche, Danny Espinosa and Michael Morse.  All three players had seriously subpar seasons in 2013 and the Nationals were rewarded by having traded Morse so that they did not have to suffer the trifecta.  New manager Matt Williams has to figure out the problems and looking for a proper batting order might be part of solving the condundrum.

The Nationals solved one issue by adding Denard Span for Michael Morse for 2013.  Span adjusted to his new surroundings in the second half and like many on the team saw his numbers rise exponentially during the last three months of the season.  Other than that top spot, however, the Nationals lineup was fluid for much of the year.  Washington started the year with a listing that should have been solid: Span, Werth, Harper, Zimmerman, LaRoche, Desmond, Espinosa and Ramos.  By year’s end it looked somewhat similar except for another weakness, Davey Johnson had no one who liked to hit behind Span and second in the order.

Almost every regular for the Nationals hits at his worst when spotted second in the lineup.  Of the ones who were auditioned there, they all hit lower in the two-hole except for Ian Desmond.  Case closed.  The first two positions go to Span and Desmond.  Unfortunately it doesn’t make sense.  The best two-hole hitter should be Jayson Werth.  He takes a huge number of pitches, sitting near the top of the league in number of pitches per at bat.  Given that new manager Matt Williams wants to encourage Denard Span to run more this year, Werth would be ideal.   But Werth’s numbers hitting second are his weakest.

Desmond on the other hand swings and misses a lot and strikes out more often than he should—145 times in 2013 which is about his average.  The good thing about Desmond is that he doesn’t vary his approach regardless where he hits, so I am in favor of leaving him hitting second.

Jayson Werth likes to hit in the middle of the order and because of his team-leading OBP, he should hit third.  He still has power and was one of the most dependable hitters for Washington in the second half of the season.  Will he perform at that level at age 35 (turns 35 in May)?  No doubt the Lerners hope they can continue to get top dollar for him and he should still have a few more seasons where he plays near his peak form.  So hit him third.

Both Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper can hit cleanup, but Zimmerman is the team elder and much flows from his bat so hit him fourth.  Bryce Harper can benefit from stepping back a notch.  He is 21 and the need for him to bat where expectations dictate has been overplayed by Davey Johnson who was always Harper’s loudest cheerleader.  Hit him fifth.

Adam LaRoche was a potent force in 2012 but fell off to such a degree in 2013 that is seems foolhardy to assume a full recovery.  Hit him sixth and hope that he warrants an adjustment as the season moves forward.  It would be ideal to return to the starting lineup of 2013 when Zimmerman broke up the two left-handed bats of Harper and LaRoche, but for now that is not going to work.

Anthony Rendon hit best when he did not have the pressure of hitting second.  He may ultimately make the most sense there, but so far he fares best when the team is performing well offensively and he joins in the fun.  It makes sense for a 23-year old and so he can hit eighth, behind Wilson Ramos whose power numbers when he is healthy are scary.  He had fourteen homeruns in the second half of the season, seven in the last month.

The notable statistic for Ramos is that he fares poorly against the best pitchers who have good zip on the fastball.  He will chase and he will strikeout.  So against Aroldis Chapman or Clayton Kershaw, Rendon should hit seventh and Ramos eighth.  Against other pitching, Ramos should hit seventh and maybe even sixth if Adam LaRoche struggles in 2014.  LaRoche played in Arizona during the 2010 season and may perform well for new manager Matt Williams, but if LaRoche comes out of the gate looking like he did in 2013, a platoon should be in order given his .198 average against lefties in 2013 and his .217 average in the second half of last season.

It will be interesting to see how Matt Williams reads the numbers.  The assumptions are that he will improve infield defense and team intensity.  But fine-tuning an offense that sputtered throughout much of 2013 may be his biggest challenge.