There’s No Fooling the Radar Gun

A traffic judge in Prince George’s County once said that “you cannot fool radar because radar spelled backwards is still radar.” So when Stephen Strasburg wants to quibble about his fastball velocity and say the problem is with the gun, tell it to the judge Stephen.

Strasburg’s fastball velocity has been in steady decline since coming back from elbow surgery as this FanGraphs graphic illustrates.  After surgery Strasburg’s heater sat at 96-97 mph consistently.  That was down from the blistering pace he set in the first two months he was in the majors when fans cheered every time his velocity hit triple digits. But the fade has become even more noticeable in his last dozen or so starts. Beginning in late 2013, the Strasburg heater has seldom been over 94. Many opined that the former 100 mph hurler was learning to pitch. But he still works off the fastball and when it is flat and only 93 mph even the often anemic bats of the New York Mets can score four runs in six innings as they did on Opening Day last week in the Big Apple.

Determined to show that his critics and the machine were wrong, Strasburg came out Saturday night popping the mitt at 96 and 97 mph in the first inning against the Braves. He was dropping the curve off the edge of the table like the old Strasburg and it was hard to see anyone laying a glove on him. What was also apparent was the maximum effort going into the fastball in the first inning. Buying that extra three-four miles per hour requires extra exertion and in the first inning against the Braves it was readily apparent how Strasburg was getting that extra giddy-up.

The effort began to flag and the velocity began to diminish. In the fourth inning, with Strasburg pretty much cruising through the Braves lineup, Justin Upton stood on second base with two outs and Andrelton Simmons was batting. Simmons hit a routine grounder to Ryan Zimmerman for what should have been the final out. But the throw was air mailed several feet over first baseman Adam LaRoche’s head. Upton scored and Simmons went to second base. The score stood at 2-1 and while the situation was disheartening, pitcher Julio Teheran was at bat. He hit .224 last season, respectable for a pitcher, but for Strasburg as one of the premier pitchers in the league protecting a slim lead, there should have been little to fear.

By now however, the Strasburg fastball was down to 93 mph and occasionally less. The effort to prove the radar gun wrong was no longer on display and Teheran roped a liner into right field to score the tying run. In the next inning, without any additional help from Zimmerman, Strasburg gave up four hits and a walk and the Braves took a commanding 6-2 lead that they would not relinquish. An MRI will be performed on Zimmerman’s shoulder to see whether there is anything structural preventing him from making the long throw across the diamond, but focus his one errant toss obscures the more worrying performance by Stephen Strasburg.

Strasburg proved to the doubters that he can still throw hard when he wishes to max out the effort. The question has to be why, when Teheran was at bat, there was no 97 mph heater to burn through what proved to be the critical moment in the game. There was no additional velocity, no bearing down, just the same old hittable heater that countless Mets’ batters got around on.

The question Strasburg has to answer is not whether the radar gun is wrong, but what kind of player he wants to be, or maybe what kind of player he can be? Strasburg is several seasons away from his next big payday and he can be forgiven if he wants to get there without another elbow surgery. If still healthy and putting up numbers somewhere close to what he did last season, he can be assured of a multi-year deal worth close to $100 million. It is important to remember that Edwin Jackson was given a four-year deal during the off-season. Strasburg has far more ability than Jackson, but does he want to settle for being a very good pitcher or a great pitcher?

Strasburg can pitch at 94 mph and succeed. There is little reason to doubt that, but if he is going to be a great pitcher, he has to be able to throw the ball by hitters with more authority than he has shown thus far in 2014. And the Washington Nationals and their fans thought they had a great pitcher in Strasburg. But greatness is not commonplace and those sports figures that operate in a different time zone than anyone else do not settle for doing what it takes to get by. Great athletes are driven and when presented with a situation where they need something extra, they find it within themselves and they deliver time and again. Such players earn a well-deserved reputation for their clutch performances and ultimately they get paid handsomely for it.  Stephen Strasburg is not reaching for that kind of payday although he does want one somewhere north of Edwin Jackson’s.

It is easy to remember that the Nationals started the 2013 season in exactly the same fashion as the first week of 2014. Zimmerman could not make the throw to first base consistently and it cost the Nationals important games early. Manager Davey Johnson could not find the motivational elixir to get his crew playing at the top of their game until it was too late. Now the task falls to Matt Williams who promises to take a very different approach.

Williams benched Ryan Zimmerman mid-way through the game Saturday night and one could almost hear the pilot come on the intercom, “Buckle up sports fans, we are in for a little turbulence.” The official explanation was that Zimmerman left the game because of shoulder soreness. Anthony Rendon moved over to third base and Danny Espinosa came in to play second base for Rendon. Williams yanked Strasburg in the middle of the fourth inning and there was no mystery to that move.

Can Matt Williams or any modern manager coax greatness from players that have it within themselves, or does it have to be the player’s decision? For my part I believe that Zimmerman could have made that throw, that had he wanted to make the throw enough, he could have gotten the ball across the diamond. I do not play the game and it is fair that Zimmerman said this morning that he cannot explain his problem to someone who is not a player. But Zimmerman was fine throwing the ball to LaRoche during warm ups. The arm only cramped up on him when maximum effort was needed, kind of like when Strasburg needed a little extra gas to throw the ball past Teheran.

It took three months before Washington found its will to win last season. It is doubtful that Matt Williams has that kind of patience. He was not known as the “Big Marine” for nothing and he might wish he could have Strasburg and Zimmerman both out on the parade grounds for a little extra conditioning. But that is not the way the modern game is played. The unstoppable force of the modern player seeking to maximize their payday has met the immovable object of the determined manager whose own payday is determined by whether he can coax whatever effort is needed from his players to win big when the potential for doing so seems apparent.

It may be just a “little turbulence” or it may be something more disconcerting. But you cannot fool the radar gun. Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals have the ability to win, they just have to find the desire.