The Kid Returneth?

Referencing Bryce Harper as “The Kid” is more than a play on his youth, but one that also brings to mind the great hitter Ted Williams who likewise was a star from the first moment he stepped onto an emerald diamond at age 20. Williams, known as the “Kid” for many years in Boston, generated controversy and antipathy from the press over the years and there is resonance on that score as well for Harper,whose modern day fable will begin anew this coming week. The ink will flow like a mighty river.

The first score Harper will need to settle is where he will play on the field. He so wants to be “the Mick,” patrolling center field with his speedy legs churning beneath him and carrying him toward another line drive that he will snare with ease. He has shared this yearning with many. It seems to matter little whether he can play center like Mantle, which in fact he cannot. Of course there is nothing in his first three seasons to make a convincing case that he is in Ted Williams’ league either, but more will be written on that score with time.

What is certain at the moment is that Harper’s return forces Nationals manager Matt Williams to make a difficult decision. As good as Ryan Zimmerman has looked in left field, it is Harper’s best spot on the field defensively and it is likely where he will spend much of his career. Harper’s preference for center field has been much ballyhooed by the Washington Post, but Harper is not a great outfielder. He makes numerous errors because he does not judge fly balls well and has trouble making adequate accommodation with the outfield walls. Still, it is Ryan Zimmerman’s shoulder that will determine the alignment that Matt Williams deploys through the final three months of the 2014 season.

As manager, Matt Williams has to send out the best lineup card he can. That is his most obvious responsibility and it does not matter where Bryce  Harper or Ryan Zimmerman want to play, the weak link in the Nationals offensive alignment is Danny Espinosa who is a middle infielder. Matt Williams respects Espinosa’s glove and his potential as a player, but his numbers this season–.217/.286/.351–are not those of an everyday player. He continues to strike out at near record-setting pace and will continue to do so as long as he insists on swinging from the left side. Inserting Harper in the lineup and taking Espinosa out should provide Washington with a much needed upgrade on its long range artillery.

Matt Williams best hope is for Zimmerman to play third well enough to slide Anthony Rendon–the true youthful phenom in a Nationals uniform–over to second base. Rendon will not complain that he thinks he would be best suited at third, but will play excellent defense at second base and do so quietly. With Zimmerman at third, Rendon at second and Harper in left, the Nationals defense will be defined by Ziimmerman’s play at third. If the Z-man can patch together one more half season at his former position, the Nationals could have an offense to compete with any other National League lineup.

Bryce Harper’s remarks about his preference to play center could lead one to believe he is challenged to see not only the concrete barriers erected to delineated outfield dimensions, but has failed as well to see Denard Span who has been playing center field and hitting lead off for the Nationals since he was acquired via trade before 2013. In his two years in Washington Span has played flawless center field–as in not a single error–and contributed not only highlight reel plays behind Washington pitching, but has hit .275 with an OBP of .343. When he is hitting the Nationals offense purrs like a kitten.

Deciding where to put Bryce Harper may be vexing to the writers at the Post, but it can be illuminated by the numbers and not just those eight errors he has made in the outfield in the past year of play.

Statistically there are two Bryce Harpers. There is the one before he ran into the walls in Atlanta and Los Angeles and the one after he tried to prove that even concrete could not hold him back. Before concrete, Harper’s numbers were a gaudy premonition of wonders to come. In 626 pre-wall at bats, he hit 31 home runs, with a slash line of .281/.369/513. The figures are worthy of all the hype that has followed Harper’s early career and justified two All-Star Game appearances.

The post-wall figures are very different. In 414 at bats since returning from injury in 2013, Harper has managed only 12 home runs and a slash line of .260/.394/.420. There are numerous Major League corner outfielders who can do better, so in that sense, maybe center is the best option for Harper. Maybe his ability to get on base is his best asset. But the ball clanks off his glove as too often he struggles to get his feet under him in time to make the catch. So while he is known for his hustle in the field and on the base paths, the notion that he can play a better center field than Span lacks any credibility, especially if you have watched the two play over any extended period of time.

The Nationals continue to promote Harper as though there has been no drop off in his performance. Fans attending games are encouraged to vote him into the 2014 All-Star Game above all others. In point of fact, there are at least three players who take the field for Washington with more regularity than Harper who deserve All-Star status more. Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman have out performed him with the bat over the past year and with the exception of Zimmerman, with the glove as well. A case could be made that Adam LaRoche is equally valuable to the team and Anthony Rendon has been the best player in a Nationals uniform in 2014. Harper may sell tickets, but he is not yet the best baseball player in Washington.

Much of the fault lies in the many fits and starts to Harper’s early career. He has been a streaky player who has shown prodigious capabilities when he is hot. But he has not had a protracted hot streak since his injury. Washington fans are hoping that one is in the offing when he returns. In his last rehab game in Harrisburg he went a gaudy 3-for-4 with two home runs. Fans are salivating and if he brings that same bat to Washington, allusions to great hitters like Ted Williams and Mickey Mantle may again make sense.

One thing is certain. Bryce Harper returneth to a pennant race in the National League East in which he can make his mark regardless the position he plays. The Braves and Nationals are dead even going into play today. “Dead” is the operative word. Neither team has been able to muster a prolonged assault on excellence. Bryce Harper can change that for the Nationals.  The stage is set, the lights will dim except for those that shine the brightest at the very center of things: in the circle that surrounds home plate. That is where Bryce Harper will need to focus his attention and if he performs at the levels that have long been foretold, the kind of glove he wears into the field won’t matter a whit.