Does the Long Winding Road to October End in California?

Over at Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, they analyze anything that moves, but they keep a nice presence in the world of sports and their  piece on the recent Jon Lester trade  looks at the notion that this season is shaping up as a significant outlier. The Lester trade is unusual because it is rare for a small market team like Oakland to be the front runner at the trade deadline taking on salary in hopes of running the table in October. It is normative for the Yankees or the Dodgers to add the pieces they need without regard to cost, but Oakland?

Oakland’s .615 winning percentage gives them a good chance to be the first team since 2011 to win 100 games when the Philadelphia Phillies did it with a record of 102 wins and 60 losses. The Athletics are on pace to win exactly 100 games but they will do well to win the AL West where the big market Angels have caught fire and are a single game back at the start of today’s play. Oakland ranked 25th in team salaries to begin the season and their ability to stay atop the 2014 season standings underscores what hopes there are for a new parity in Major League Baseball.

As we head into August no National League has much of a chance to win 100 games. The newly resurgent Los Angeles Dodgers might do it. The $250 million Dodgers are on the other end of the spectrum, a team swimming in television revenues like Scrooge McDuck in his vat of silver coins. Los Angeles has eked ahead of the San Francisco Giants with a timid .558 winning percentage, but they have won seven of their last eight games including a three-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco. The National League is the poster child for competitive balance with the Pirates and the Marlins still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

The Milwaukee Brewers looked strong in the first months of the season, but have proven less formidable in June and July. The Cardinals added John Lackey to their starting alignment at the end of July. He beat the Brew-crew in his first outing for St. Louis and it is a good bet that the Cardinals can overtake the Brewers, but they do not seem as formidable as in prior years. Much the same can be said for the Atlanta Braves who are struggling to keep pace with the Washington Nationals. Washington lost Ryan Zimmerman for an extended period, however, and the team plays much better with his bat at the heart of the lineup. Bryce Harper could help the Nationals if he finds himself and he has been hitting at a .278 clip since the All-Star Game, but his OPS of .761 over that stretch is hardly inspirational.

Other than the Angels and Athletics, there is no one in either league able to gain traction as the season heads into crunch time. The Orioles have a ferocious ensemble of swatters and a surprising four-game lead in the AL East. But their pitching is weak at best. Yankee hurlers Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka are on their way back and could spell trouble for Maryland’s Crab Cake Crew. Baltimore’s three-game series in Toronto this week will be a key test, but it may be the ten games remaining against the Yankees that could be the measure of the Baltimore season and they end with seven games on the road against the Yankees and Blue Jays; a very big hill to climb indeed.

Detroit clearly believes themselves to be the favorites to challenge Oakland or the Angels. They have a comfortable 4.5 game lead in the AL Central where no other team took on salary or seems poised for a run. Trading for David Price gives the Tigers a rotation that can stack up to anyone, including Kate Upton, who was recently seen on the other end of a Justin Verlander toss. Their rotation of Schwerzer, Sanchez, Price, Verlander and Porcello includes the three most recent Cy Young winners in the American League, to say nothing of Miguel Cabrera, even in a down year.

Where does it all lead? Can Oakland carry the banner for the other small market teams all the way into the World Series. The odds are stacked against them frankly and while it is both wise and admirable for Billy Beane to take his shot now, Oakland has their hands full with the Angels and the Tigers. Money talks and the Dodgers are charging pretty hard right now. Stephen Strasburg had one of his best games in months a few nights ago, so the Nationals could make a move, but the Dodgers have always had their number so I look for Los Angeles to win the NL and one of the two other California teams to win the AL. The vision I am getting is a weak one–shakey even if it includes Oakland and San Francisco–but I will know a lot more in a couple of months. The smart bet right now has to be on some kind of  California World Series where Ry Cooder’s “Money Honey” is the song to sing. It’s a favorite of mine either way.