Will DC Ever Learn What It Takes to Win?

The Kansas City bullpen has been flawless and their performance could spell the difference for the Royals in the 2014 World Series. Everyone who loves the underdog is pulling for them, but for Washington fans there is an object lesson in watching Kansas City that is almost certainly being lost. The Washington Nationals are on the outside looking in once again and theirir savvy fans should note how a great bullpen works. They should be asking themselves the following question: “If Matt Williams could have summoned Greg Holland in the Second Game of the NLDS to get the final out, would their beloved team be playing the Royals instead of the Giants?”

The Washington cognoscenti may be too busy whining about Matt Williams’ decision-making to  realize that a better bullpen would have obviated the second guessing that has been all too ‘common’ in Washington for the past weeks. The Nationals have one of the best young managers in the game and he desperately needs a better bullpen to go with his very fine rotation that returns for what could be their final season in 2015.

Washington is a town where the Great Man theory has been all the rage for over 200 years. In that construct there is no team, only the great leader. So it should come as no surprise that you cannot find a single denizen of the nation’s capital who wants anything more than Drew Storen closing out games again in 2015. He works cheap and the concern that he blows up under pressure is no fault of his own, but rather that of the great sahib who does not know when to use him.

Call this the Minority Report, but if Washington is ever to craft a winning sports tradition, they will have apply the team approach for sports analysis and leave others to inflate the egos of the great men of history .

Washington may not have a better off-season for finding a new closer to bolster its bullpen than this one. David Robertson of the Yankees is likely available and as a newly minted ninth inning stud, he could come cheaper than Raphael Soriano’s $15 million that will be available for off-season moves. Andrew Miller looked very good coming in out of the Baltimore bullpen and he would be a nice addition who might be able to close as well. Koji Uehara might have another season left in his arm. Minor league prospect A.J. Cole’s 98 mph fastball might play well out of the bullpen. Some combination of new bullpen talent is woefully needed to make the Washington bullpen a source not only of fresh possibility, but of greater effectiveness. Those who want to give the same dudes who have blown two post-season opportunities another chance to do so should consider another line of work.

Washington has Ian Desmond, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Tyler Clippard playing in their last year of team control in 2015. Their departure hovers above the Nationals like the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Each is an unique and integral cog in the winning machine that Rizzo has configured. Washington’s request for additional television rights fees from the Baltimore Orioles could provide important new money for Mike Rizzo’s off-season moves, but the check will likely be in the mail for some time to come. Even in the best case scenario, it is uncertain whether the Nationals will have the money to retain them all. Nor is there any fore knowledge which if any of these players want to stay.

Desmond and Zimmermann have both indicated that they have interest in testing free agency. Desmond turned down a contract offer last winter that was rumored to be for $85+ million over six years. There is less certainty about whether any concrete terms have been discussed with Zimmermann, but he remains unsigned and will only be emboldened by his success in 2014. He could well command $20 million annually on the free market and more if he repeats his performance of the past few seasons. Whether Washington can afford to pay that price may depend upon the courts.

So what kind of silver lining can Rizzo craft from this brewing storm cloud?

He begins with the three marquis players Washington has going forward: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Stephen Strasburg (Strasburg is under team control until 2017, Harper 2019 and Rendon 2020). Both Fister and Zimmermann outpitched Strasburg in 2014, but Rizzo would covet having all three under contract for more than 2015. There is help on the way in the form of A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito, but there are no sure bets among prospects, even of considerable talent, and they cannot guarantee playoff berths to come.

Regardless the salary ceiling Rizzo is working under, his first off-season priority will be retaining Fister and/or Zimmermann. The Washington Post reported the figure of $300 million that the Nationals would gain moving forward if the courts rule in their favor. Zimmermann and Fister could command a sizable portion of that figure. Zimmermann could garner as much as $150 million and Fister would not be far behind. Even if the courts do not favor the Nationals, GM Rizzo needs to find the money to sign them.

Adam LaRoche will be leaving and taking with him the $12 million he was paid in 2014. Ryan Zimmerman will play first base, Rendon third, but the remaining infield positions become tricky and are likely to eat much of LaRoche’s salary. Asdrubal Cabrera performed well with the bat and in the field after coming over in trade from Cleveland. He would be an excellent sign for the Nationals regardless what happens with Ian Desmond. But Desmond is the key.

Desmond will make $11 million in 2015 and he is one of the better shortstops in either league despite some rather gaping holes in his game. He is a relative bargain even though he struck out 183 times in 2014. On the asset side of the ledger he was second only to Adam LaRoche in home runs–24–and RBI–91. Flip the coin again and you see the 24 errors and a UZR rating that fell precipitously. Desmond recently was quoted as saying the “window is closing” for the Nationals to win big in the post season. Ironically, Desmond could well be on the outside of that window looking in if they do.

Of the four horsemen of the Nationals 2015 season, trading Desmond makes the most sense. It is easier to replace him than either of the two starting pitchers. Whether Zimmermann or Fister sign long term contracts or not, having them pitch out next season for Washington is a slam dunk. Pitching was what got the Nationals to the playoffs and if they are to make it again, both pitchers will need to be retained regardless their long term contract status. While Desmond was an important part of the offense, there are other shortstops who can play better defense and fit nicely into Washington’s offensive alignment. And they will cost less money than the large numbers Desmond apparently has floating before his eyes.

Trading Desmond would bring in the kind of prospects that could keep Washington competitive in coming years. Signing free agent pitchers and infielders will likely deplete Washington’s ability to draft key talent, so adding it via trade may make more sense. The Yankees have been rumored to covet Desmond, although most pundits see them signing Cabrera rather than Washington. But Desmond would play larger in the Big Apple than Cabrera. Yankee fans dig the long ball and Desmond can give them that more often than Cabrera. If Desi leaves DC, there is $23 million in annual infield savings (LaRoche + Desmond)  for Cabrera and another middle infielder such as a Jed Lowrie or some option. Trading Desmond not only brings in a cache of young talent that Washington needs, but he yields salary savings of several million dollars annually. As they say on Capitol Hill, a million here, a million there, and pretty soon you are talking the real money it will take to sign Fister and Zimmermann.

The Nationals front office has moved down two tracks to build a loyal fan base. The first and not insignificant track was to market the team to a city of transients, to create a personna of the team and get buy in for it from Washingtonians. That has meant positioning Mouseketeer cheerleaders on the dugout roof and playing corny music to accompany every player’s at bat. The growing attendance at Nationals Park is proof of a solid base of fans and it is time to spend the money on track two where a solidly competitive team has been constructed. If keeping talent like Jordan Zimmermann means no more  Jayson Werth Garden Gnomes  or short skirts atop the dugout, then so be it. Letting players like Fister and Zimmermann walk would be the wrong message to send its nascent fan base and just about anyone else.

It is time for the Best and the Brightest to leave Matt Williams to manage. They might do better baking cookies to support the efforts to keep Zimmermann and Fister. Every little bit helps in a team approach to winning.