Playing Out the String

The micro-economy of Major League Baseball is ever-changing. The first model was the neighborhood bully on the playground, in which the richest teams threw their weight around, purchased the best free agents and dominated the sport in the process. Bud Selig’s tenure as Commissioner has seen the arrival of more tools for competitive balance than at any point in the game’s history and each Collective Bargaining Agreement has tweaked the baseball economy in major ways. The next CBA is approaching in 2016 and it will be interesting to see how hard the MLBPA pushes to eliminate concepts like Qualifying Offers that have been a drag on player contracts since their introduction in 2011.  Regardless their effect, more players seem intent on playing out the string and testing the waters of free agency than ever before in 2016.

In Washington, “Playing Out the String,” means watching Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Denard Span and Ian Desmond play their last year under team control in DC.  All of them seem to have reached an impasse with the Nationals front office regarding contract extensions. The local press reports that offers have been made to Zimmermann and Desmond, but it appears increasingly likely that all of the four are going to test free agency in the fall. They have only to look across the locker room at Max Scherzer for inspiration. His recently negotiated contract for $210 million over 14 years must look inviting to all four players, but it is just as much a test for the Nationals as they assess the impact of a big free agent signing across the arc of the 2015 season, one in which Nationals owner Ted Lerner is pushing all his chips into the middle of the table. If he walks home the big winner, he may be willing to do it again. If he gets burned, then his enthusiasm for free agent–bully on the playground–baseball will dim.

The Nationals are the ones in the drivers seat. In each instance the season is more a test for the four individuals than the team. If Desmond has another 20 homer-twenty steal season, then he will get the kind of money that one of the top position players in the game can command. If Zimmermann and Fister pitch the team deep into the playoffs, then they are in line to get the big money.  But if any of the foursome falters, then they wind up in the bargain bin where the Nationals can shop as well as anyone. Also in the Nationals favor is their ability to examine the bona fides of Trea Turner, Michael Taylor, Joe Ross, A.J. Cole and the other major league ready replacement players who could step in for the Nationals foursome of potential free agents. If any of a handful of minor league players have big seasons in 2015, Washington is likely to let Zimmermann, Desmond and company walk and give the new kids the ball for 2016. Bullish performance from minor league players who can step in and compete gives the Nationals front office money to use plugging holes, knowing they have solid answers waiting in the wings to replace their departing free agents.

The peculiar arrangements of the most recent CBA give the Nationals another leg up, one that provides some small leverage if they decide they wish to keep their big four. If the potential free agents play to their potential in 2015 and become free agents, there is the issue that other teams that sign them must give up draft pick compensation to Washington. Washington can sign any of the four without that penalty if they make a qualifying offer–which they will surely do if each of the four play to anything near their current level of performance. Quantifying that advantage would depend upon the team that signs the free agent. If the signing team is forfeiting a top ten pick then its value is greater than if it is a contending team that is giving away a lower first round pick. And since it likely will be a contending teams that is most likely to target the foursome, the offset might be minimal in value. But it is still another advantage that accrues to the team rather than the player.

Which is why my friend, who says, “it takes a lot of guts to play out the string,” is correct. The players are the ones sailing into the winds of fortune. The Washington Nationals front office can gather in their suite each night; watch the performance of the big four; weigh it against that of their future replacements and then decide which alternative is pound foolish or penny wise. They can decide that bringing back one or more of the players is good business and pay the freight. In doing so they will win the good graces of their fans for bringing back their favorites and Washington will continue to field one of the better teams in baseball.

At the end of the 2015 season the Washington Nationals will have either gone bust on their considerable expectations to make the post-season or made a run at the World Series; the big four will either contribute or not and the minor league replacements either will look like champs or not. The data will be in and Mike Rizzo will have weighty decisions to make, but he is the man with the cards, not Ian Desmond. Desmond must perform consistently over the course of a grueling six month season and must then wait out the results, hoping that the market contingencies play in his favor. If Trea Turner, Javier Baez and numerous other middle infield prospects play well, the market for his services gets a little colder. But if they struggle just a bit and raise a few questions, then Ian Desmond looks like the best option, one that GMs across the board will be lining up to write the big checks to Ian and his agent.

The one certainty in this game of chicken is that the stakes are enormous. But losing is not that calamitous. Even those that fail go away with something to keep the missus back home happy. Yes, the threat of injury is there, but look at the salaries of Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen, the two Atlanta pitchers who sat out last season because of elbow surgery. Each signed multi-million dollar contracts that will keep the devil from the door. So perhaps playing in the free agent derby is not so gut wrenching after all. When the worse-case scenario is $4 million big ones, it is easy to see why everyone wants to play. It is why the minor leaguers are willing to play for chump change for years just to qualify for the lightning round.