You Gotta Have Heart

FanGraphs Jeff Sullivan asked the question the other day, “ Have the Nationals Lost Their Edge?”  The edge in this instance is the statistical advantage that the Nationals enjoyed going into the season over the other teams in the NL East. Having lost six in a row since righting the ship briefly at the end of the second week of the season, the team has lost more than an early edge, it seems to have lost heart?

Before the season began, when they were the runaway favorites in the National League as a whole, the conundrum was whether Washington would sign or let walk Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Doug Fister and Denard Span. The definitive answer has been silence and one has to wonder if the lack of commitment by ownership to its star players can be linked to the lackluster showing on the field.

To drive home the point as to who DC ownership values the most, the front office went out and signed Max Scherzer instead of anyone on the current roster. Baseball is a business and everyone knows the parameters of that reality cannot be over-estimated, but has the Lerner family that owns the team put to the test whether monetary affront can undermine even the modern ball player? Has Charlie Commiskey found his modern day equal?

In speculating why the Nationals signed Scherzer, the local press pointed to the seven to eight year window that most Tommy John surgeries have. The repaired tendons in the pitchers elbow will last for only so long. According to the experts, Matt Harvey has only so many 99 mph fastballs in his surgically repaired elbow before it gives out again. So rather than commit money to the repaired elbow of Zimmermann–or Strasburg for that matter–Washington chose to build its pitching staff for the near future around Scherzer.

Jordan Zimmermann had his surgery in 2010, so after 2017 the increasingly conventional wisdom has it that he is pitching on borrowed time. However, if Zimmermann can find anything approaching the form that threw a no-hitter last September, he will sign a contract that will pay him handsomely to pitch through 2020 and beyond. The Nationals are saying they don’t want to compete in that rodeo. The decision on Zimmermann may be a sound one financially, but what about the others. Doug Fister has had no surgery nor has Span or Desmond. Is there some affront in all of that? And if so, has it had any effect on team “chemistry?”

One of the gaping holes in the Nationals performance so far in 2016 has come not from the players who are playing out the string, but those who are most secure. Ryan  Zimmerman and Jayson Werth bat at the middle of Washington’s order. The two players have long term contracts that guarantee them fiscal security for the rest of their lives, yet their batting averages are the lowest in Washington’s starting lineup.  Jayson Werth weighs in at a paltry .156, (signed through 2017), and Ryan Zimmerman a bit more lustily at .205 (signed through 2019).

There is some good news in Washington’s future. Yes, they were able to turn down the request from Peter Angelos for the Orioles to play games in DC rather than riot-torn Baltimore. Rich irony indeed. But even better than thumbing their nose at the cross town owner who has refused to re-negotiate the MASN television deal is the return from injury of Anthony Rendon. Plugging the 24-year old third baseman back into the mix can only help whatever ails the Nationals.

Finding some help for the beleaguered bullpen might be another positive step. Would the Nationals consider letting some of their Triple-A starting rotation lend a helping hand. Almost all other auditions have failed,  A.J. Cole will make a spot start for the injured Scherzer. It will be Cole’s Major League debut tonight and one has to wonder whether he could be retained on the Major League roster to help in the bullpen?

There is not a lot of thinking outside the box in DC. If Cole is a starter and the team wants him to play that role in 2016, then messing with that idea is not likely to happen. But the rocket is sitting on the launch pad and no spark has been seen to date. All signs point to design flaws but new thinking is not on the horizon. The odds according to the FanGraphs still favor the Nationals to make the playoffs over their NL East rivals, even if the lead has narrowed considerably. All they have to do is find a way to catch hold and begin playing the kind of baseball everyone thought presumptuous in March.

Can it happen, because if not, Washington is on pace to lose 105 games this year and win a paltry 57. Those numbers would mark an epic collapse; one for the record books and one that will have the experts looking at root causes for some time to come.