A Bargain Closeout in DC

The Nationals waited until almost midnight, but bargain shopping was still in effect when Washington finally pulled the trigger on their bullpen, adding Philadelphia closer Jonathan Papelbon in exchange for Nick Pivetta , ranked just at the back at end of the Nationals Top Ten Prospects. There had been some disagreement about how bad the Nationals bullpen really was, but by that old reliable metric: runs allowed–in use since your grandmother’s typewriter used carbon ribbons, the Washington bullpen was in the bottom half and needed fixing if they are to have their best chance of holding off the Mets down the stretch.

But it is not just the stretch run where Paplebon will have his greatest impact. Prior to his final post-season appearance for the Boston Red Sox in 2009, Jonathan Papelbon had not been scored upon in 26 innings spanning seven different post season match-ups. His ERA over 27 innings of post-season play is 1.00. Contrast that with Drew Storen’s record in 2012 and 2014 when he allowed five runs in five plus innings for an ERA of 8.44. The numbers speak for themselves and whatever Washington fans may believe about Drew Storen’s fine record, they was a collective sigh of relief when Washington traded for Papelbon as the trade deadline approached on Friday.

Papelbon is not the same high velocity fastball pitcher who was lights out for the Red Sox and recorded three saves in the 2007 World Series sweep of the Colorado Rockies by Boston. He relies on his curve more, but the results have been impressive despite the change in how the Philadelphia closer gets it done overt the years. He still averages a strikeout for every inning pitched and his ERA is consistently among the best for relievers in the NL.  Slotting Drew Storen into the eighth inning and Papelbon into the ninth will tack on a few crucial wins in the coming two months of baseball.

While Drew Storen will chafe about losing the closing role after posting 29 saves with a 1.73 ERA, he was even better last season heading into the Playoffs with a 1.12 ERA. But it is in the key situations when the stakes are the highest that Storen has struggled. Called upon to close out Game Two in Washington, with the Nationals up 1-0 behind a masterpiece by Jordan Zimmermann, Storen could not record the final out and send the Nationals to San Francisco tied at a game apiece against the Giants.

So whether Papelbon can still blow them away or not, he has a record of success in Post Season play and hopefully he will get a chance to recover his old form in October 2015 for Washington.

The good news is that he is signed for 2016 as well. Without capable bullpen help for Storen on any horizon, the Nationals were going to have to spend money in the off-season if they had failed to bring Papelbon in from Philly. According to reports outlining the parameters of the trade, Washington is guaranteeing Papelbon $11 million in 2016, which is below the $13 he would have likely earned in Philly. The deal moots out the option that would have vested if Papelbon finished just 14 more games in 2015. But clubs are notorious for stiffing players and handshake deals mean nothing with ownership, so the pitcher is smart to get money in the hand.

Hopefully it will all be moot at the end of the day. With an effective bullpen makeover and the return of Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon heading into the final two months of the season, the Nationals have as good a chance as anyone to continue playing well into the month of October when Mr. Papelbon will get his chance at the Post Season for the first time since 2009 in Boston.