Hardball Retrospective – 1912 Season Replay

In “Hardball Retrospective: Evaluating Scouting and Development Outcomes for the Modern-Era Franchises”, I placed every ballplayer in the modern era (from 1901-present) on their original team. Therefore, Pete Alexander is listed on the Phillies roster for the duration of his career while the Cubs claim Heinie Zimmerman and the Pirates declare Max Carey. I calculated revised standings for every season based entirely on the performance of each team’s “original” players. I discuss every team’s “original” players and seasons at length along with organizational performance with respect to the Amateur Draft (or First-Year Player Draft), amateur free agent signings and other methods of player acquisition.  Season standings, WAR and Win Shares totals for the “original” teams are compared against the “actual” team results to assess each franchise’s scouting, development and general management skills.

Using a modified version of the Lahman Database (with the ballplayers linked to their original franchises), I imported the players into Digital Diamond Baseball and conducted a full-season replay with the as-played 1912 schedule. The “Player Libraries” which include the Opening Day rosters, lineups and starting rotations for each season replay (1901-1910) are available on the Digital Diamond Baseball website via the following link:

http://digitaldiamondbaseball.com/libraries/v5/HardballRetro-1901-1910.zip

A few housekeeping items:

• Players on defunct teams such as Honus Wagner and Tommy Leach (Louisville Colonels) are excluded because their original team’s league ceased to exist by 1901.
• I attempted to emulate player usage in the DDBB replay to real-life usage whenever possible.

This series of articles will reveal the results for each season replay and compare the outcomes to the OPW%, OWAR and OWS standings from Hardball Retrospective. “Hardball Retrospective”is available in digital format on Amazon , Barnes and Noble , GooglePlay , iTunes and KoboBooks . The paperback edition is available on Amazon , Barnes and Noble and CreateSpace. Supplemental Statistics, Charts and Graphs along with a discussion forum are offered at TuataraSoftware.com .

Don Daglow (Intellivision World Series Major League Baseball, Earl Weaver Baseball, Tony LaRussa Baseball) contributed the foreword for Hardball Retrospective. The foreword and preview of my book are accessible  here .

Terminology

OWAR– Wins Above Replacement for players on “original” teams

OWS– Win Shares for players on “original” teams

OPW%– Pythagorean Won-Loss record for the “original” teams

1912 Replay Results

The Giants clashed with the Pirates throughout the 1912 season, trading the lead multiple times in the closing months. When the dust settled, New York emerged with the title by a one-game margin. Chief Meyers seized the batting title with a .347 average and topped the Senior Circuit in OBP (.432). Fred Merkle blasted 12 long balls and swiped 43 bags while hitting .322. Larry Doyle eclipsed the century mark in runs scored (107) and RBI (106). Fred Snodgrass pilfered 46 bases and tallied 114 aces. On the mound, Jeff Tesreau (20-9, 2.40) led the League in ERA and joined teammates Rube Marquard (23-12, 3.16) and Christy Mathewson (21-16, 3.32) in the twenty-win club. Terry Turner manned the hot corner for the Bucs and finished second in the batting race with a .339 average. Max Carey stole 53 bases (second in the NL) and posted a .315 BA with League-bests in hits (204) and runs scored (137). Fellow outfielder Chief Wilson socked 9 dingers, laced 21 triples and drove in 112 baserunners. Claude Hendrix (27-10, 3.18) paced the National League in victories.

Cincinnati and Chicago stayed within striking distance but ended the season locked in a tight battle for third place. Jean Dubuc (20-14, 2.73) placed runner-up in the ERA race. Bob Bescher filched 55 bases to top the charts and finished second with 119 runs scored while Reds’ teammate Dick Hoblitzell accrued 114 ribbies. Bill Sweeney registered a .338 BA with a .418 OBP and 117 aces for the Cubbies. Chicago featured three of the top four home run hitters in the League including Fred Luderus (14), Heinie Zimmerman (13) and Frank Schulte (11). Johnny Evers nabbed 45 bags and batted at a .322 clip. Chicago righthander Larry Cheney won 26 contests in his rookie season. Red Smith (116), Jimmy Sheckard (115) and Jake Daubert (103) finished in the top 10 for runs scored. Daubert hit .313 with 40 stolen bases and led the circuit with 121 RBI. Nap Rucker (25-28, 2.89) completed 43 of 48 starts. Ed Konetchy launched 10 round-trippers and scored 110 runs for the Redbirds. Red Murray topped the leader boards with 24 three-base hits. Mickey Doolin drilled 35 doubles and John Titus plated 101 baserunners for the Phillies. The Braves slogged through a miserable season, amassing 116 losses against only 39 wins. George Jackson mashed 9 taters and tallied 106 aces for the hapless Bostonians.

The Athletics breezed to the American League pennant for the fourth straight season in spite of a late push from the Red Sox, as Philadelphia opted to rest their regulars down the stretch. The A’s almost pulled off a clean sweep of the leader boards in the percentage categories. Ty Cobb withstood the charge from a quartet of Athletics to claim the batting crown with a .355 BA. Eddie Collins tied Tris Speaker for the OBP lead with a .413 average while Frank “Home Run” Baker posted the highest SLG at .527. Collins led the circuit with 147 run scored, finished second with 51 stolen bases and rapped 215 safeties. Baker bashed 11 round-trippers and plated 134 baserunners to top the leader boards. “Shoeless” Joe Jackson produced a League-high 228 base knocks and batted .344 with 123 aces and 118 ribbies. “Colby” Jack Coombs led the Philadelphia mound crew with a record of 28-5. Boston surpassed the century mark in victories, thanks to a stellar campaign from “Smoky” Joe Wood. Pacing the Junior Circuit with 30 wins, Wood completed 35 of 41 starts and placed runner-up with a 2.43 ERA. The four members of Boston’s rotation fashioned ERA’s below 3.00. Duffy Lewis drilled a League-best 51 doubles and finished second with 126 tallies. Harry Lord contributed 116 RBI and Larry Gardner registered 122 runs.

Every other American League ball club finished the season below the .500 mark. Cobb produced 218 base hits, knocked in 117 baserunners and topped the charts with 26 triples. Third-sacker Eddie Foster contributed 215 safeties in his inaugural campaign and shortstop Donie Bush coaxed 114 bases on balls. Ed Walsh completed 38 of 44 starts and posted a record of 24-19 for the White Sox. Burt Shotton registered 121 tallies for the Browns while Roy Hartzell pilfered 48 bags. Rookie second baseman Del Pratt delivered a .308 BA with 203 base knocks. Jack “Chief” Warhop paced the Highlanders with a 2.88 ERA. Walter “Big Train” Johnson led the Junior Circuit in ERA (2.22), strikeouts (154), innings pitched (417.2) and complete games (41). Clyde “Deerfoot” Milan nabbed a League-leading 64 bases and legged out 206 hits. Vean Gregg managed to win 18 contests with a 2.70 ERA for the last-place Naps.

1912 Hardball Retro Replay – Final Standings

Replay Results vs. Hardball Retrospective Findings

Boston sailed to victory in the American League by a comfortable 13-game margin over Philadelphia and Washington. The Pirates outflanked the Giants, claiming victory by a mere two games. The Red Sox secured the League leadership with a 51 OWAR and an OWS of 324. New York possessed a significant lead over Pittsburgh in both categories (52 OWAR and 290 OWS).

On Deck

1913 Season Replay

References and Resources

Baseball America – Executive Database

Baseball-Reference

James, Bill, with Jim Henzler. Win Shares. Morton Grove, Ill.: STATS, 2002. Print.

Retrosheet – Transactions Database

Seamheads – Baseball Gauge

Sean Lahman Baseball Archive