Rating the 2016 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame.  This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 6, 2016.

Many systems exist for evaluating player performance.  One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching.  James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer.  However, future standards may be different.  Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame.  In the future, they more often will not.”

The 2016 class of Hall of Fame candidates consists of 17 holdovers and 15 players eligible for the first time.   Twelve holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Barry Bonds with 661, Gary Sheffield 430, Roger Clemens 421, Tim Raines 390, Jeff Bagwell 387, Mark McGwire 342, Fred McGriff 326, Alan Trammell 318, Sammy Sosa 311, Mike Piazza 309, Larry Walker 307 and Edgar Martinez 305.  Two newcomers have over 300 Win Shares, Ken Griffey Jr. 403 and Jim Edmonds 301.

In 2015, four players received the necessary 75% of the vote for election by the Baseball Writers of America (BBWAA).   The 2015 ballot included 17 newcomers and 17 returning candidates.  Three newcomers, Randy Johnson (97.3%), Pedro Martinez (91.1%) and John Smoltz (82.9%) were elected on the first ballot.  Only two others, Gary Sheffield (11.7%) and Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%) received the necessary 5% of the votes required to remain on the ballot.

With the strong incoming class last year, only Craig Biggio (82.7%) among the holdovers was elected.   The 2016 class is not as strong which should allow some holdovers to move up.  The only holdovers with over 50% of the vote in 2015 were Mike Piazza (62.2%), Jeff Bagwell (55.7%) and Tim Raines (55.0%).

Several players on the ballot have the numbers to be elected but remain tainted with the steroid cloud.  Many voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving them a pass.  This, along with the number of strong newcomers on the ballot the last two years has resulted in the ballot becoming quite crowded.  A total of 571 ballots were submitted last year and each voter could vote for up to 10 players.  The number of ballots will be reduced this year as writers that have not actively covered the sport for the past ten years will no longer be able to vote. It will be interesting to see how this will impact the results.  Over the years, voters have typically voted for 5 or 6 candidates but last year they voted for an average of 8.4.  This increase is likely to continue since there are at least 20 candidates on the ballot for which a reasonable case can be made for induction.

The Hall has made a significant change in the voting for this year.  Players are now kept on the ballot for 10 years rather than 15 years.  Players that had already been on the ballot for 10 or more years stay on for 15 but those with less than 10 years will be removed after their 10 ^th year. Alan Trammell is in his last year in 2016 (15 ^th ) as is Mark McGwire (10 ^th ).  Lee Smith (14 ^th ) and Tim Raines (9 ^th ) are in their next to last years on the ballot.

Earlier this year, the Pre-Integration Era Committee consisting of a panel of Hall of Fame players, sportswriters and baseball executives voted on a group of ten players and executives for induction.  None received 75% of the votes from the 16-member Committee.

Following is a list of Win Shares for the 32 players on the ballot.  Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold.  Voting results for 2014 and 2015 are shown for the holdovers:

The 26 players elected by the Baseball Writers since 2000 have averaged 356 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by six players on this year’s ballot.

Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments.  A measure of the quality of a player’s offensive performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) adjusted for park effects and era with the league average during his career.  An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player.  A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career.

The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Sheffield and Raines, although it appears to under-rate pitchers, while OPS+ rewards strong offensive players who had shorter, more dominant careers like Edgar Martinez and McGwire.  ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.

Conclusions:

1. Three players will be elected in 2016, Ken Griffey, Jr., Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell.
2. Trammell and McGwire will fail to win election in their final year on the BBWAA ballot.
3. Raines will gain significant support but will not receive enough votes for induction. However, he should be in a good position for election next year.
4. Edmonds, Wagner and Hoffman should receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.
5. There will not be a groundswell of support for Randy Winn, Luis Castillo, Mark   Grudzielanek, Jason Kendall, David Eckstein and Brad Ausmus, among others.
6. If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Griffey, Jr., Piazza, Bagwell, Raines, Schilling, Trammell, McGriff, Kent, Wagner and Mussina.