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31 Takes: What if Columbus misses the playoffs?
Columbus may have pushed all their chips into the middle for nothing. (AP)
The Blue Jackets are 3-3-0 since making the Matt Duchene trade, which is not ideal.
The problem is they need to be much better than that down the stretch because, when they made that trade, they were sitting outside of a playoff position, and there they remain. On Saturday night they lost 4-0 to the Oilers (yikes!) in a putrid get-a-coach-fired kind of way. The next day they lost 5-2 against the Jets behind a third-period collapse and Blake Wheeler Texas hat trick.
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It's not how you want to have to do things after a deadline in which you dumped some roster players, prospects, future picks, and almost their entire draft this season — currently they are going to pick just twice in June, with nothing before the third round and nothing again until the seventh — into acquiring Duchene, Ryan Dzingel , Adam McQuaid , and Keith Kinkaid .
They're outside the playoffs right now, though holding a game in hand on the Canadiens. But you gotta win those games in hand for them to mean anything, and a .500 record isn't getting you anywhere.
And that's the thing with this team: They have a ton of talent now. And they had plenty before the deadline, too. But the results just…. aren't there.
Sergei Bobrovsky is outta here this summer but he's pushing 31 and having his worst season since 2015-16. In 2019 so far, he's just .892. He was on the hook for both losses this weekend, giving up eight goals on just 44 shots.
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Not that Bobrovsky is the only problem; by just about any measure, this Columbus club is right down the middle. In expected-goal difference for the entire season, they're plus-7.3ish on the season, worth a little more than two points in the standings. And they've underperformed that a little in actual goals, at plus-7, which itself is really only just okay for a playoff team in most seasons.
League-wide, they're a little above middle of the pack in expected-goal difference. And in Corsi share at 5-on-5. And in their percentage of 5-on-5 scoring chances. Plus their struggles on the power play are, shall we say, well-documented.
Put another way: This team with Bobrovsky, Artemi Panarin , Seth Jones , Zach Werenski , Pierre-Luc DuBois, Cam Atkinson , and so on is about three points above average and actually underperforming expected-goal numbers, which flat-out shouldn't happen for talented clubs. But of course most of that work is from before the deadline.
So maybe you say the additions made around the deadline help them improve down the stretch. Those guys combined can, in theory, add a handful of points to Columbus's expected outcome. But so far Duchene is only okay (1-2-3 in six games), Dzingel hasn't done much (0-2-2 in four games), and McQuaid is getting absolutely caved in (four goals against, none for, in four games, and healthy-scratched against Winnipeg).
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But the thing I've been thinking about a lot is: What if they don't? Panarin and Bobrovsky are gone this summer, possibly Duchene too. Maybe Dzingel, if he's really chasing money. If this team makes the playoffs, or even if they just squeeze in only to draw Tampa and get smoked, there may have to be bigger changes.
People don't talk about it much, but this team isn't spending a ton of money and only appear to be closer to the cap than they are because they're carrying two bought-out Kekalainen mistakes (Tyutin and Hartnell) worth nearly $4.46 million against the cap this year. If those contracts plus all the moves this season don't get you more than three home playoff dates, was it worth it? Kekalainen signed a "multi-year" extension in the offseason so he might not be up for the firing line.
But John Tortorella, who signed his own two-year extension (through 2021) this summer? Who has never really struck one as a kind of transformative coach? Who Kekalainen indulged with a new power play consultant hire because he couldn't figure out how to make a team this talented score on the man advantage? Well now…
The thing is that if you make all these moves and enter the summer knowing you're losing your two biggest players (at a minimum) for nothing, you kinda have to come out of it at least getting to the second round. If that doesn't happen, more changes than just the natural churn of free agency has to follow.
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Because if the last gasp of the most talented Columbus team in history is a playoff miss or first-round bow-out, you hate to think what comes next.
31 Takes
Anaheim Ducks : When you get the chance to re-sign a 28-year-old middle-six guy until he's 33 while you're supposed to be rebuilding, well, you gotta take it.
Arizona Coyotes : The Coyotes have won six straight and I'm trying to remember if there are any teams that recently went on lengthy winning streaks to make it seem like they were in the playoff race only to fall apart just as quickly and now they're back to being terrible. Probably not.
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Boston Bruins: Tuukka Rask quietly up to .922 on the season. That's fourth among goalies with 35 or more starts. Few will discuss this!
Buffalo Sabres: I need to reiterate that, after they won those 10 games in a row in November, this team really only needed to go .500 for the rest of the season to make the playoffs. Instead they have gone .400 (32 points from 40 games, a pace for less than 66 points). They're done . Need a new coach, I think.
Calgary Flames: This guy has been getting steady starts all season. Plays like this aren't an uncommon occurrence.
Carolina Hurricanes: They just keep winning and you have to respect it.
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Chicago: "Despite an ugly loss in L.A., Chicago Blackhawks head coach Jeremy Colliton and Jonathan Toews remain hopeful on a playoff run." Give it up, guys . You ended Saturday seven points out.
Colorado Avalanche: Hoo boy what a goal from Sam Girard.
Columbus Blue Jackets : Just a humiliating result .
Dallas Stars: You can't argue with smoking the hottest team in the Western Conference 4-1 on the road behind a hat trick from your captain.
Detroit Red Wings: This is gonna shock you all, but giving billionaires a bunch of free money out of public coffers because they promised Economic Development isn't working out again !!!!
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Edmonton Oilers: One thing no one is talking about in this Oilers win is that McDavid and Draisaitl basically did everything again , and the rest of the team just had to not get scored on.
Florida Panthers: Teams like Florida that are talented, but still not particularly good, are the reason the loser point has to be so frustrating for teams in the playoff race: They go to OT constantly. The Panthers have been to overtime or a shootout in four straight games, and have now done so in 21 of their 64 games. That's a lot of extra points.
Los Angeles Kings: That might have been the least-talked-about 10-game losing streak in recent NHL history. This team is real bad.
Minnesota Wild: The Wild are so good as long as their goaltending is any good at all . The problem is they've given up four or more in 24 games this year. That's bad!
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Montreal Canadiens: I know we're acting like it's crazy that the Canadiens are in the playoffs right now, give how low expectations were coming in, but they're really not that good of a team . They're on a 94-point pace in 2019 and haven't beaten a team in a playoff position since Feb. 7.
Nashville Predators: I really hope the mediocre season is why NHLers largely consider PK Subban one of the most overrated players in the league and not, well, other stuff.
New Jersey Devils: Hey remember when people were mad that Mackenzie Blackwood was being hailed as a savior like Carter Hart? With his great performance Saturday night, he's still .931 in 15 appearances. Pretty good. Should get more attention, I guess, but it's only 15 games.
New York Islanders: Very quietly, things are getting interesting atop the Metro .
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New York Rangers: How many times do you think the sports world will collectively have to say, "Coaches and players never try to lose" before people understand that tanking is about roster build and not compete level.
Ottawa Senators: This is like naming a new captain for the Titanic after it already broke in half and half of it was below water.
Philadelphia Flyers: *checks standings* You don't say .
Pittsburgh Penguins: The Pens are playing their asses off all of a sudden. Starting to look like more of a playoff lock than I would have thought at the All-Star break.
San Jose Sharks: It's so cool that even in 2019 Joe Thornton is dominant enough that he's making guys you don't hear a lot about look real, real good.
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St. Louis Blues: I have to disagree with the open here: They're gonna make the playoffs unless like 15 things go wrong all at once. Which, I guess, they could.
Tampa Bay Lightning: I'm really starting to think they're actually gonna beat the Habs record . Would be incredible.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Are people really mad that Leafs fans did the cheering for John Tavares thing ? This sport, man.
Vancouver Canucks: Well, yeah .
Vegas Golden Knights: Damn these guys look good since they brought Stone to town.
Washington Capitals: Yeah I liked the Jensen add a lot . Looks like it's working out.
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Winnipeg Jets: Should be a real interesting race down the stretch in the Central.
Gold Star Award
Jarome will always be my Gold Star Award winner. Absolute legend.
Minus of the Weekend
It was of course only the dumbest people in media saying Tavares being cheered like crazy was a bad thing but it still bugged me. Don't do that!
Play of the Weekend
People wanted them to trade this guy? Do I remember that right?
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "FlyGuyOX" is feeling great.
Flyers get:
Huberdeau
Panthers get:
Gostisbehere
Rubstov
2019 6th rd pick
Signoff
No, I've got gum in my hair.
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Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here .
