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Not a great start to the year in Pittsburgh, where worse-than-expected goal production and horrible goaltending combined to get the Pens out to an 8-8-4 start.
Certainly not what you expect through a quarter of the season from a team with this kind of talent. And you don't wanna put too much stock into a month here and six weeks there, but it was one of those things where everyone figured they'd be good coming into the year and they just… weren't.
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Not only were they losing a lot, but they weren't outshooting or outpossessing teams like they had in the past, and they certainly weren't getting any saves.
And while we're still a few games away from the halfway point for these guys overall, you gotta say their 10-4-2 record in the last 16 has been more in line with what you'd expect. They beat up on a solid Carolina team (they gave up 39 shots but that's what happens against the 'Canes) on Saturday to win their third straight and fifth in the last six. But going back a month here, these guys are putting it together and are sitting third in the Metro. After a .500 start to the year, you take that no questions asked.
A lot of that turnaround happened while Matt Murray , who was an unmitigated disaster in the first 20 games (.877 in 11 appearances), sat on the IR and Casey DeSmith , of all people, played out of his mind (.927 since this hot run started).
But Murray's been back for three appearances in the last six games and he's not only been good, he's been nearly lights-out: Four goals against on 112 shots (.964). That's obviously not gonna last but if he can even be a handful of points above league-average again, something like .915, this team has the talent to take off.
(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)
The thing with their bad start is that, y'know, they've been mostly a solid possession team over the balance of the season but lately there have been a lot more ups than downs, as there were earlier. If not for the fact that they have the talent to score when they need to — not always but more often than not, certainly — this team would be dead in the water because the goaltending really was that bad.
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The thing is, their expected-goal difference is up overall, but only slightly in these two samples. The differences in the rates of both taking and conceding shot attempts are likewise marginal. They're actually getting fewer shots on goal per 60 minutes and giving up more. But while they're generating fewer good looks themselves in this stretch, they also seem to have improved defensively, giving up fewer scoring chances to make up for it.
Point is, everyone is playing better overall but not to the extent you'd expect for this kind of turnaround. Or anything even close.
Here's the difference: They started out getting .897 goaltending for 20 games. That they wound up even being .500 over that stretch speaks to their roster quality. In the last month it's been .922 and hey look at that, they're way over .500. Huh.
So the only thing the Penguins seem to have "figured out" is that getting elite goaltending is better than getting some of the worst goaltending in the league. Literally nothing else has changed in any meaningful way. But if you're gonna figured out anything, that's probably a pretty good thing to start with.
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And if you wanna call the last month luck, that's fine. But you have to also acknowledge that the first six weeks were marked by insanely bad luck. So, I dunno, fair play to 'em I guess.
31 Takes
Anaheim Ducks : Any time you put together a third-period "rally" and lose 3-0 , that probably wasn't much of a rally.
Arizona Coyotes : Well they're selling the Coyotes again and this time, it'll work out!
Boston Bruins : Starting to think this Bergeron guy (2-2-4 in his first appearance in 16 games) is a key cog for the Bruins .
Buffalo Sabres : If I'm Jason Botterill, going into "buyer" mode seems like a bad idea considering who else is in the division.
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Calgary Flames : The Flames have lost three in a row heading into their Christmas break but they still lead the division comfortably, so that's nice.
Carolina Hurricanes : Hell yeah I love to attribute a team's problems getting a half-decent goalie to a lack of " Mental Toughness " in 2018. Carolina's save percentages by month: .884, .912, .878. Weird how no one was saying this team lacked mental toughness in November. Wonder what changed.
Chicago: Three wins in a row and they're feeling good . Wow, six more like that and they'll be a .500 team.
Colorado Avalanche : They're starting to drop off a bit but the rest of the division is so mediocre and they started out so well that they gave themselves plenty of breathing room. Not bad.
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Columbus Blue Jackets : These guys are also in a good position heading into Christmas but the idea that they might lose their two best players is definitely a thing they're thinking about .
Dallas Stars : The Stars don't score much in the first period and that, to me, is bad.
Detroit Red Wings: When you're down 2-0 and score a goal and lose 2-1 , that's probably the absolute minimum definition of a comeback.
Edmonton Oilers: The thing about the Oilers is they looked like they could hang with the Bolts for like half their game on Saturday night and then Tampa was like, "Oh right we're much better than these guys," and the game was over. Such is their power, but also the Oilers' lack thereof.
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Florida Panthers: This honestly kicks ass.
Los Angeles Kings: I dunno, seems like this Kovalchuk guy can play . Might wanna give him more minutes. Just my thoughts.
Minnesota Wild: Brutal for Matt Dumba and the Wild . These guys don't generally have a lot to be excited about and this only makes things worse.
Montreal Canadiens: Before we ask if this D corps is good enough for the playoffs (it isn't), let's ask if this team is good enough to even make it, because it doesn't feel like a mega-sure thing to me. Like probably they will, but only because the rest of the East is so bad.
Nashville Predators: These guys might want to mix in a road win . They don't have one in their last 10 tries. Just something to think about.
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New Jersey Devils: Hall's trade value is never gonna be higher !
New York Islanders: It's not just Mat Barzal. Everyone has to shoot more .
New York Rangers: Yeah, the Rangers should think about trading everyone over 25 . And by think about I mean start.
Ottawa Senators: The first sentence in this one is a bit of a stunner (to just come right out and say it) but also not a surprise.
Philadelphia Flyers: This is gonna shock you but Carter Hart gave up 4 on 19. Welcome to Philly.
Pittsburgh Penguins : Sidney Crosby truly just turns most players into really productive wingers . Interesting how that keeps happening forever.
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San Jose Sharks: What an ugly hit by Erik Karlsson , definitely worthy of a two-game suspension.
St. Louis Blues: The Blues' problem this season? That's right: The Refs Hate Them .
Tampa Bay Lightning: Nikita Kucherov has the talent and support to make a five-point night look insanely easy . Very fun.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Little Mitchy Marner needs to shoot more because, again, everyone needs to shoot more.
Vancouver Canucks: By the way, it's not just fan blogs bemoaning the officiating on a regular basis. The media in some markets does it a lot, too .
Vegas Golden Knights: Yeah, to be honest, changing up one of the best lines in hockey for " a spark " doesn't seem like a sound long-term strategy. Weird what happens when one of the guys on that line stops shooting at a 25 percent clip, or whatever.
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Washington Capitals: Nice for Pheonix Copley to get his first shutout . When he talks about it to his future grandkids, I'm sure he'll leave out that it was against the 2018-19 Senators.
Winnipeg Jets: Laurent Brossoit is having one hell of a season as a backup. He's sitting on .939 in 10 appearances right now. Not bad.
Gold Star Award
Yeah, I mean Kucherov had five points against the Oilers, but Bergeron had four against a much better team after missing a ton of games, so he's the winner. Hooray hooray.
Minus of the Weekend
I know they won on Saturday but the Sabres just haven't looked good lately. Very worrying trend for them.
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Play of the Weekend
When you have like six forwards who can easily put up two-plus points on one end, and a goalie who routinely makes saves like this at the other, it's no wonder the Bolts are on pace to be the best team of the cap era. They haven't lost in regulation since Nov. 27.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "GodEmperor" is king of all he surveys .
[quote]Nylander
Johnson
1st
For
Parayko[/quote]
Signoff
Hey, hey, wait up! We gotta swap insurance info.
Ryan Lambert is a Yahoo! Sports hockey columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here .
(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)
