No. 4 seed Alabama basketball will look to hit a reset button to start the NCAA Tournament.
"It's the first game of a new season," Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "Who comes to play ready for 40 minutes in that first game?"
The Crimson Tide hasn't been playing its best basketball of late, having lost four of its last six games and three of the last four. Still, Alabama showed an ability to compete with some of the nation's best teams at different points throughout the season.
Can the Crimson Tide reach that level of play again? Or will it continue its stumble, resulting in a quick exit from the NCAA Tournament?
Alabama (21-11) will first play No. 13 seed Charleston (27-7) on Friday (6:35 p.m. CT, truTV) in Spokane, Washington. Here's why Alabama will or won't get upset in March Madness.
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At some point, Alabama's defense just might have to be accepted for what it is this season: Not that good.
Oats has lamented it all season long to different extents. Sometimes it has improved, but far too often, it has shown an inability to get stops. That hasn't changed much the past few games. The defense doesn't seem to be getting any better. If anything, it feels like it's gotten worse. A month ago, Alabama had hope it could perhaps move up in defensive efficiency, but it has slipped in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings to No. 112. Oats' two Alabama teams that reached the Sweet 16 each had the No. 3 defense nationally.
The chances of drastic improvement on the defensive end of the floor aren't likely at this point. If Alabama's going to get upset, poor defense will almost certainly be part of it.
Alabama didn't have much of a chance of a comeback against Florida in the SEC Tournament. Not with the way the Crimson Tide handled adversity.
Alabama started the game off well. The Crimson Tide jumped out to a strong start on offense and defense. Then it began missing shots, and the offensive frustrations affected defensive effort. And it wasn't the first time this season.
"I think that is a mental thing," guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. said. "Oats always challenges us to be mentally tough. In the games where we don't have good offensive games, we're not mentally tough."
That's not a good sign. At all. In March Madness, bad offensive outings aren't uncommon. Defense then becomes a key ingredient to survive and advance. If Alabama has a slow day offensively and lets that translate to the defense, the Crimson Tide won't last long in March Madness.
On Feb. 17, Alabama had won its sixth game in the past seven tries. It was rolling through SEC opponents outside of Auburn and Tennessee on the road.
Then injuries started to strike. Wrightsell missed the next four games with a head injury. Then Rylan Griffen, another starter, sustained an injury against Florida on March 5 and had to miss the March 9 game against Arkansas . He played against Florida in the SEC Tournament, but Griffen was easing his way back in after a calf injury.
Now, Alabama will have almost a week off until it plays again. That will allow the Crimson Tide time to be fully healthy and ready to go, and that full-strength roster is reason for optimism. Maybe having the whole group together and rolling for the first time since Feb. 17 will make a difference.
"We had everyone available last game, but it's almost like you're knocking the rust off a little bit with some of the guys who haven't been in as much," Oats said Sunday. "It's a new season, a lot of teams are done, there's not that many teams left playing meaningful games, but we're treating it like it's a whole new season and playing a really good team."
When Alabama was playing its best basketball, it had the best offense in the country. It was the most efficient statistically per KenPom for most of the season and was on a historic pace with its four-guard starting lineup.
Sure, the offense has been inconsistent at best the past couple of weeks, with points per possession experiencing a bit of a dip. But the injury to Wrightsell disrupted the flow when he went out with injury, considering he's one of the nation's most efficient offensive players and one of Alabama's best 3-point shooters.
It's just a matter of catching fire again. If Alabama can light it up from beyond the arc, it can compete with just about anyone. The "if" is doing a bit of work there, but the good news is that Alabama isn't trying to create something that has never been there this season. It's a matter of rekindling something of which the Crimson Tide showed it is capable.
Unless the Crimson Tide pulls a complete 180 and starts playing at the level it showed earlier in the season, Alabama will get upset the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Charleston could give Alabama some problems as a team on a hot streak that has a good offense. The chances of a Charleston upset are somewhat slim, but not impossible. Still, the Crimson Tide should take care of business in the first round. If No. 5 seed Saint Mary's beats No. 12 seed Grand Canyon, our prediction is that the Gaels will beat Alabama in the second round. That's not much of an upset with a No. 5 seed beating a No. 4 seed, but it's still an upset nonetheless. The Crimson Tide just hasn't given much reason for optimism lately, which is why an upset feels possible.
Nick Kelly is the Alabama beat writer for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network, and he covers Alabama football and men's basketball. Reach him at nkelly@gannett.com or follow him @_NickKelly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter .
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Will Alabama get upset in 2024 March Madness? Here's why, why not
