Story by
The Tuscaloosa News
Alabama basketball vs UConn prediction: Who has edge in Final Four of NCAA Tournament?
- Story byThe Tuscaloosa News
- Alabama basketball vs UConn prediction: Who has edge in Final Four of NCAA Tournament?
Alabama basketball will look to score a victory over UConn in the Final Four of March Madness .
The NCAA Tournament bracket 2024 has put the Crimson Tide against the Huskies, one game away from the national championship. The matchup features two programs in much different spots.
Advertisement
Alabama has never made a Final Four until this season. Meanwhile, UConn has not only made a Final Four but it also won the NCAA Tournament a season ago. This season marks the Huskies' seventh Final Four appearance in program history.
To get here, No. 4 seed Alabama beat No. 13 seed Charleston, No. 12 seed Grand Canyon, No. 1 seed UNC and No. 6 seed Clemson. As for UConn, the Huskies beat No. 16 seed Stetson, No. 9 seed Northwestern, No. 5 seed San Diego State and No. 3 seed Illinois . None of those games have been close as UConn has dominated throughout. At one point in the Elite Eight game against Illinois, the Huskies went on a 30-0 run.
"That's unheard of in the Elite Eight," Alabama coach Nate Oats said Saturday. "That's crazy."
Who will advance to the national championship? Here's a scouting report and score prediction of the March Madness matchup between Alabama (25-11) and UConn (35-3).
Advertisement
ALABAMA BASKETBALL: Finally Alabama basketball played elite defense in March Madness. Will it continue vs UNC?
HISTORIC OFFENSE: How Alabama basketball built its best offense ever
FINAL FOUR: Nate Oats' system works in March. Alabama let all naysayers know en route to Final Four
Projected starting lineup for UConn vs Alabama basketball
Guard Tristan Newton (senior):6-foot-5, 195 pounds. Averages: 15 points, 6.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1 steal, 0.3 blocks, 2.5 turnovers.
Guard Cam Spencer (senior):6-foot-4, 205 pounds. Averages: 14.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1 turnover.
Advertisement
Forward Stephon Castle (freshman):6-foot-6, 215 pounds. Averages: 10.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.5 turnovers.
Forward Alex Karaban (sophomore):6-foot-8, 220 pounds. Averages: 13.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.8 blocks, 0.9 turnovers.
Center Donovan Clingan (sophomore):7-foot-2, 280 pounds. Averages: 12.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.5 blocks, 0.8 turnovers.
Clingan has been a dominant force in the NCAA Tournament. He's a strong defender with a block percentage of 11.7%, per KenPom. That ranks No. 7 nationally. His defensive rebounding percentage is also solid, ranking No. 74 in the country. He's also a talented offensive player as one of the most efficient offensive players in the country, ranked No. 22 with an offensive rating of 130.4. He's not even the highest ranked on the team in that category, however. Cam Spencer is No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Then there's Newton who's elite in his own right. He's No. 2 on KenPom's player of the year ranking, behind only Purdue 's Zach Edey . Overall, the UConn lineup features no shortage of talent.
Advertisement
UConn's rotation vs Alabama basketball
Guard Hassan Diarra figures to see the most minutes of players not in the starting lineup. He averages 19.4 minutes per game, tallying 6.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.3 turnovers per outing. Outside of Diarra, two other players have averaged 12.1 minutes or more per game: Samson Johnson and Solomon Ball.
How UConn stacks up with Alabama in scoring, defense and tempo
KenPom tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. UConn has a top five offense and defense.
KenPom measures the adjusted tempo statistic based on the number of possessions per 40 minutes. Alabama will look to play considerably faster than UConn.
Advertisement
Adjusted offensive efficiency:
UConn: 126.6 (1st nationally)
Alabama: 125.9 (3rd)
Adjusted defensive efficiency:
UConn: 91.5 (4th nationally)
Alabama: 102.6 (104th)
Tempo
UConn: 65 (315th nationally)
Alabama: 72.8 (9th)
Alabama vs UConn prediction: March Madness Final Four
UConn 89, Alabama 80:If the Crimson Tide plays its best game on offense and defense, it can give UConn plenty to handle and maybe just maybe can pull off the win. But it's not likely. There might not be any team that can stop this UConn team, which has few weaknesses and plenty of elite talent.
Nick Kelly is the Alabama beat writer for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network, and he covers Alabama football and men's basketball. Reach him at nkelly@gannett.com or follow him @_NickKelly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter .
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama basketball vs UConn prediction, pick for Final Four
