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Analyzing Fabian Zetterlund's Early Season Struggles
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- Analyzing Fabian Zetterlund's Early Season Struggles
David Kirouac-Imagn Images
At last year's trade deadline, the Ottawa Senators made a big move, trading for Fabian Zetterlund from the San Jose Sharks . The main piece going the other way was promising young centre Zack Ostapchuk . What made this trade so positively received by the Senators fan base was how Zetterlund was a productive 25 year old, who was to become a restricted free agent in the summer. Basically, he was still young, and not a rental. Flashforward to today, and Zetterlund is now signed to a three year contract with the Senators . Here's the problem- he has produced very poor numbers with the Sens. So, is it officially time to worry about Fabian Zetterlund? Let's dive into the details.
Zetterlund as a Shark
Here's a reason for optimism going forward with Zetterlund- his time with the Sharks did not start off well. After arriving to the Sharks in a trade that sent Timo Meier to the New Jersey Devils , Zetterlund was held to no goals and three assists in his first 22 games. The following season, he found his game, which continued into last season. Here were his numbers over that time with the Sharks:
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146 games, 41 goals, 80 points
That translates to 23 goals and 45 points per 82 games. He averaged 18:02 time on ice per game, with 2:13 of that coming on the power play. He also had 235 hits during that time. For comparison, Ridly Greig had 238 hits during that same time frame, in 130 games. Make no mistake about it, Zetterlund was highly regarded among the Sharks fanbase. He was playing for a bad team, but the thought was that he would be a solid middle six player in a competitive lineup.
Zetterlund as a Senator
Including the playoffs, Zetterlund has now played 34 games with the Senators. Here are his numbers:
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34 games, 2 goals, 6 points
Over 82 games, that projects out as 5 goals and 18 points. Last season, he was coming into an established lineup. The thought was, he would work his way into a more important role as time went on. That didn't happened. This season, fresh off his contract extension, the thought was that he would now be ready for a more important role. That has yet to happen. In fact, even with Brady Tkachuk out, he has spent much of the last couple of games on the fourth line. This season, he has just one assist through seven games.
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Zetterlund going forward
The reality with Zetterlund is that he is a volume player. He scored goals by shooting the puck a lot, not necessarily being a pure sniper. He's a lifetime 9.5% shooter. In San Jose, he was a 10.7% shooter. The reason he scored at a decent rate with the Sharks was because of how many shots he took (382 in 168 games). As for his physical play, yes, registers a lot of hits, but how many do you actually remember? They aren't bone crushing, they're just enough for the statistician to notice.
There are a few problems for Zetterlund going forward. Number one is his reduced ice-time. He went from over 17 minutes per game with the Sharks, to just over 14 minutes per game with the Senators. Another problem, which hopefully corrects itself soon, is his extremely low shooting percentage. He has 50 regular season shots with the Senators, but only 2 goals.
Here's one more production issue- 28% of Zetterlunds points over his last two seasons with the Sharks were on the power play. That made up 22 total points, 10 of which were goals. He has no power play points as a Senator. Part of that is because he went from over 2 power play minutes per game as a Shark, to much less than that with the Senators. This season, he's received just 7 power play minutes in 7 games.
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Final Thoughts
Zetterlund is the Senators fifth highest paid forward, with Pinto likely to move him to sixth by next season. The expectation is for him to therefore be, at least, a middle six forward. Let's do a quick breakdown. Here are the forwards that will likely receive more opportunity and ice-time:
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Tkachuk, Stutzle , Cozens, Batherson, Pinto, Greig
Here are the forwards that Zetterlund is in competition with:
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Giroux, Perron, Amadio
It's a long season, and injuries always play a factor, as they already have. Zetterlund's opportunity is really up to him. As of now, he is deservedly receiving lesser minutes. As a Senator, he hasn't shown any standout trait. Sure, his shooting percentage is low, but he hasn't been a force around the net by any means. His two way play isn't all that noticeable, either.
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Now, here's where I preach patience. The season is only seven games old for the Senators. Perhaps this is a fair expectation- if he receives around 80% of the ice-time that he received with the Sharks, he should produce 80% of his production. That would translate to just under both 20 goals and 40 points. Is that too much to ask for? The time is now for Zetterlund to step up. That means going all in from a work ethic perspective. Head to the net, and score a few ugly ones to win over both the coach, and the fanbase.
