Bold predictions for Yankees-Blue Jays ALDS

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Bold predictions for Yankees-Blue Jays ALDS

Colin Loughran, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Sat, Oct 4, 2025 ·

4 min read

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The post Bold predictions for Yankees-Blue Jays ALDS appeared first on ClutchPoints .

The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays have seemingly been trending in opposite directions for the past few weeks. While Toronto was ultimately able to win the American League East crown, they went 5-5 across their final 10 contests and almost lost the division before officially clinching a bye. Meanwhile, the Yankees went 9-1 over their last 10 games and are now coming off a riveting Wild Card series victory against the Boston Red Sox .

The two sides will have a chance to see if momentum matters when they begin a fresh best-of-five ALDS series on Saturday. As the set looms, it would not be shocking to see Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman continue to keep New York 's hitters off balance in Game 1, and it is also fully possible that Yankees southpaw Max Fried will finally figure out how to stifle Toronto's bats in Game 2.

Toronto and New York have contrasting offensive styles. The Blue Jays are known as a frisky bunch that will try to rattle off hits and play a nuanced version of "small ball." On the other end, the Yankees are a team that has lived and died by their ability to slug.

As important as each squad's offensive output will be, it could be argued that Gausman and Fried's performances will carry the most weight in the early portion of the series.

Kevin Gausman will continue to have success against the Yankees

Gausman enjoyed a fruitful regular season. The 34-year-old went 10-11 and posted a 3.59 ERA across 32 starts. According to Baseball Savant, the veteran ranked in the 96th percentile in Pitching Run Value and the 85th percentile in Chase%.

"He's the same guy every single day," Blue Jays manager John Schneider told MLB.com. "You don't worry about him getting caught up in the noise and the stuff that goes with a Game 1."

Perhaps more interestingly, he had a decent amount of success against the Yankees in 2025. The two-time All-Star posted a 2-1 record and a 3.97 ERA in four starts against New York. In his final start against the Bombers on September 5, Gausman surrendered only one run over eight innings and struck out five hitters.

Notably, Yankees All-Star Aaron Judge has historically had success against Gausman. The two-time MVP owns a career .354 average with six home runs and a 1.283 OPS over 61 plate appearances when facing the journeyman.

While New York could see this as a definite advantage, the Blue Jays could opt to work around Judge with intentional walks.

"There's times, if there's an open base and it's late in the game, we're probably going to do that," Gausman said. "That's the nature of the beast. He's a guy that, like I said, can beat you with one swing. He's one of the best players in the game. At the same time, you always want to go after guys, so it's kind of that double-edged sword."

Assuming that the Blue Jays will choose to avoid Judge at all costs, it could be an effective opening game for Gausman.

Max Fried will find a way to limit Toronto's offensive production

Fried has been masterful for most of this season. The 31-year-old lefty posted a 19-5 record and a 2.86 ERA in his first year with the Yankees. But, he's struggled against a Blue Jays lineup that has been known to consistently put together tough at-bats.

In four starts against Toronto this year, Fried posted a 4.07 ERA. This is not particularly encouraging, but the California native is coming off of a solid outing against the Red Sox in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series. He threw 6.1 innings of scoreless baseball, and was able to work around four hits and three walks.

The Blue Jays own the highest Contact Percentage in the sport and players such as George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will not be afraid to swing at anything in the zone.

"They're a complete team," Judge told Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News. "They don't strike out a lot, so they're going to put the ball in play and force your hand on defense. But we're looking forward to it."

Fried must ensure that he's able to locate pitches in places that induce weak contact, and his track record suggests he will be able to adjust on the fly. When he was with the Atlanta Braves during the 2021 World Series, the three-time All-Star surrendered seven hits and six runs in his Game 2 start against the Houston Astros . In Game 6, the lefty delivered six innings of scoreless work as his team brought home the franchise's first title since 1995.

Fried has proven his ability to evolve on short notice, and this trait may allow him to deliver New York a Game 2 victory.

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