Conference USA Football 2025 Predictions

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Conference USA Football 2025 Predictions

Steven Lassan · Athlon Sports

Wed, Jun 11, 2025 ·

15 min read

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Conference USA Football 2025 Predictions originally appeared on Athlon Sports .

Unpredictable is the best way to sum up Conference USA for the 2025 college football season. With every team dealing with significant roster attrition or change through the transfer portal, along with four new coaches, this is the toughest conference to predict for '25. Additionally, Delaware and Missouri State join CUSA to bring the league's membership to 12 this fall.

Based on recent track record, it's easy to pencil in Liberty and Western Kentucky as the favorites. But a surprise team - potentially Louisiana Tech or UTEP - could emerge as a contender if the pieces fall into place and the bounces in close games go their way. Defending champion Jacksonville State is one of those teams dealing with major turnover, but coach Charles Kelly could keep this team near the top of CUSA in '25. Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Sam Houston, and FIU need a few breaks to push for bowl eligibility. New coach Jerry Mack is a promising hire, but Kennesaw State is projected to finish last in CUSA this fall.

How does Athlon Sports project Conference USA for 2025? Steven Lassan predicts the divisions and ranks all 12 teams in Conference USA for this fall:

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Conference USA 2025 Predictions

Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Conference USA Championship:Liberty over Western Kentucky

1. Liberty

Coming off a 13-1 record and a trip to a New Year's Six bowl (Fiesta), Liberty was a heavy favorite to win Conference USA in '24. But the Flames underachieved with an 8-4 record, including a puzzling 27-24 loss to Kennesaw State. Despite last year's setback, coach Jamey Chadwell's squad is still the team to beat in Conference USA.

Liberty's high-powered offense is under renovation this offseason. Coastal Carolina transfer Ethan Vasko is slated to replace Kaidon Salter (transferred to Colorado) under center, and top running backs Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas departed. However, the ground game may not miss a beat with a handful of talented backs vying for time, including Vaughn Blue, Julian Gray, Caden Williams, Darius Copeland, and Georgia Tech transfer Evan Dickens. Considering Vasko's previous experience and a solid stable of options in the backfield, the success of this offense is likely to hinge on how fast a line with three new starters develops.

The spring transfer window took a toll on Liberty's defensive front with end TJ Bush and tackles Jay Hardy and Chris Boti departing. Chadwell restocked this group with a couple of post-spring pickups in Aaron Hester (Florida State) and Joe Strickland (Purdue) to team with standouts in Bryce Dixon and CJ Bazile. Leading tackler Joseph Carter (88 stops in '24) returns at linebacker, with three starters back to anchor a secondary that finished No. 74 nationally in success rate last season.

2. Western Kentucky

Despite seemingly having to navigate significant roster turnover on an annual basis, Western Kentucky continues to churn out winning seasons under coach Tyson Helton. The Hilltoppers have won at least eight games in each of the last four years and played for the Conference USA title twice in that span.

The offense returns only one starter, but this unit should be among the best in Conference USA thanks to Helton turning to a page out of an old gameplan. The program had previous success at importing a coordinator (Zach Kittley) and quarterback ( Bailey Zappe ) from the same FCS program just a few seasons ago. Helton hopes to find success again with this concept, as coordinator Rick Bowie and quarterback Maverick McIvor arrive from Abilene Christian. This duo was instrumental behind ACU ranking as a top-10 passing offense at the FCS level in '24. At receiver, expect transfer Matthew Henry (Western Illinois) to emerge as one of McIvor's top targets. Tackle Marshall Jackson is the lone returning starter along the offensive line.

Western Kentucky's defense is also in transition. Following Tyson Summers' departure to Colorado State, Helton promoted Da'Von Brown and Davis Merritt to co-coordinators. This duo inherited only one returning starter and lost the top 12 tacklers from '24. The return of Demarko Williams and Kent Robinson provide a solid foundation to build around in the secondary.

3. Jacksonville State

After winning the Conference USA title last season, Jacksonville State now ranks among the league's most unpredictable teams for '25. With Rich Rodriguez returning to West Virginia, the program will turn to long-time coach (and former Jacksonville State assistant) Charles Kelly as the next head coach. Kelly will have his work cut out in '25. The Gamecocks return only six starters and rank near the bottom of the FBS in returning production.

Both sides of the ball were hit hard by attrition, but the losses were more significant on offense. The dynamic pairing of quarterback Tyler Huff and running back Tre Stewart will be missed under new coordinator Clint Trickett. Former Kentucky and Rutgers signal-caller Gavin Wimsatt is likely to start under center, with TCU transfer Cam Cook expected to headline the backfield. Brock Rechsteiner and Michael Pettaway provide a solid foundation at receiver for Wimsatt. The line brings back only two starters and lost standout tackle Will O'Steen to transfer in the spring.

Kelly's background on defense should pay dividends, as Jacksonville State brings back just one of its top 10 tacklers from '24. Virginia Tech transfer Khurtiss Perry and sophomore Jawaun Campbell headline the key contributors up front. However, new coordinator Brian Williams (and Kelly) must retool a linebacker and defensive back unit decimated by departures. Expect transfers Rod Elston (Auburn), Tyrin Taylor (Memphis), and Larry Preston (Murray State) to play a key role in rebuilding the secondary.

4. Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech coach Sonny CumbieJaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

The Bulldogs are coming off their best season under coach Sonny Cumbie (5-8) and earned a trip to the Independence Bowl after Marshall opted out due to player departures in December. Despite last year's step forward, Louisiana Tech is only 11-26 under Cumbie and has yet to post a winning record since his arrival in '22. The '25 campaign is a make-or-break year for this staff.

Long-time play-caller Tony Franklin returns to Ruston (previously worked at Louisiana Tech 2010-12) to handle the offensive duties in '25. The veteran aims to improve an attack that managed only 4.8 yards per play and 20.9 points a contest last year. The cupboard isn't empty in terms of personnel, as Franklin has a promising young quarterback in Evan Bullock (14 TDs to 3 INTs in '24), and running back Omiri Wiggins and tight end Eli Finley return to anchor the skill spots. Three starters must be replaced up front. Also, the receiving corps must replace go-to receiver Tru Edwards (84 catches last year).

Louisiana Tech's defense showed marked improvement last fall. After allowing 33.4 points a contest in '23, the Bulldogs cut that total to 21 a game. However, coordinator Jeremiah Johnson left to take the same role at Coastal Carolina. Luke Olson arrives in Ruston after coordinating Jacksonville State's defense last year and is tasked with building on Johnson's success. Linebacker Kolbe Fields and cornerback Cedric Woods headline the returning players, with a rebuilt defensive front the biggest concern for Cumbie.

5. UTEP

With a wide-open race expected in Conference USA this season, expect a surprise team (or two) to emerge in the race for a spot in the championship game. UTEP is my pick to emerge out of that mix. Coach Scotty Walden's team won two out of its final three games and lost two other CUSA contests by a field goal last year.

Expect the Miners to improve across the board in Walden's second season. Former USC and Boise State quarterback Malachi Nelson joined the offense this spring, but Skyler Locklear and Cade McConnell entered the summer with a significant lead for the No. 1 spot. Kenny Odom, Kam Thomas, and Jaden Smith are back to form one of CUSA's top receiving corps and help whichever quarterback wins the job elevate an offense that averaged 19.5 points a contest. Rebuilding the line and finding a No. 1 running back - potentially Charlotte transfer Hahsaun Wilson are the top fall priorities.

UTEP's defense held conference opponents to a respectable 5.5 yards a snap last year. New coordinator Bobby Daly plans to deploy a similar scheme to last season's group, but the personnel is in transition with three returning starters. Defensive lineman KD Johnson is among CUSA's top returning defenders. Nate Dyman (84 tackles in '24) is back to anchor the second level, with McNeese State transfer Micah Davey counted upon to make an instant impact. The secondary has room to improve after finishing eighth in the conference in pass efficiency defense.

6. Delaware

Under fourth-year coach (and former Delaware QB) Ryan Carty, the Blue Hens could surprise in their FBS debut. With 12 starters back and experience at the right spots, Carty's team has enough pieces in place to overcome the jump in competition and contend for a winning record. With solid resources and a track record of success, the future for this program is also bright in Conference USA.

Quarterbacks Nick Minicucci and Zach Marker will battle to pilot Carty's high-powered offense again in the fall. Marcus Yarns leaves big shoes to fill in the backfield. However, Jo'Nathan Silver and Saeed St. Fleur are poised and ready to handle a larger role. Former Michigan receiver Jake Thaw leads the way as the top pass catcher for whichever quarterback wins the job. Optimism is also high surrounding a line bringing back three starters.

The Blue Hens bring back a nice mix of talent and experience on a defense that limited its FCS opponents to 21 points a contest last year. Safety KT Seay is among Conference USA's top returning defenders, and linebacker Gavin Moul leads a strong second level. As with any team making the jump to the FBS level, depth is a question mark and an area to watch as the season progresses.

7. Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee coach Derek MasonHelen Comer/The Daily News Journal/USA Today Network

Derek Mason's first season at Middle Tennessee was a struggle (3-9). The Blue Raiders defeated UTEP and Kennesaw State in CUSA play but were outscored 411 to 217 last year and ranked near the bottom of the nation on defense. Can Mason show progress in his second season?

Despite averaging only 18.1 points a contest last year, the offense should have some optimism in '25. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato returns after ranking second in the conference in total yards a game (262.6) last fall. With Holden Willis and Omari Kelly departing, coordinator Bodie Reeder needs to develop more playmakers for his senior quarterback. Also, the Blue Raiders desperately need to jumpstart a sluggish ground game (89 yards a game in '24) and improve a line with four returning starters after an inconsistent year.

Mason's specialty is the defense, but this unit ranked No. 131 nationally in success rate and allowed 6.7 yards a snap last fall. Linebacker Parker Hughes and end Anthony Bynum are back, and Chattanooga transfer Alex Mitchell will also provide help right away at the second level. Marked improvement is needed in the secondary after Middle Tennessee ranked last in CUSA in pass efficiency defense last season.

8. Sam Houston

A familiar face is back in charge at Sam Houston. Long-time offensive coordinator Phil Longo finally gets his chance to run a program in '25 with the Bearkats. He previously worked as the play-caller in Sam Houston from 2014-16 and brings a track record of successful offenses at the power conference level (Ole Miss and North Carolina) to Huntsville.

After the defense led the way for Sam Houston's 10-win team last year, Longo's arrival will shift offense to be the strength of this squad in '25. Quarterback Hunter Watson takes over the controls of Longo's high-powered offense after accounting for 2,458 total yards and 21 overall scores last year. There's also potential at the skill spots with receivers Qua'Vez Humphreys and Michael Phoenix II, with transfers in Alton McCaskill (Arizona State) and Elijah Green (Indiana) running behind a line with three starters back.

While the offense has a solid foundation to build upon, the defense is basically starting from scratch. The top 16 tacklers from 2024 have departed, and new coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay is counting on instant impacts from several transfers. Considering the sheer amount of turnover, matching last year's production (holding teams to 20.5 points a game) is a tough task.

9. FIU

FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins© Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

After a third consecutive 4-8 season, FIU hit the reset button on its program by firing Mike MacIntyre. Although the Panthers have struggled to find their footing at the FBS level, the program took a step forward with its hire of Willie Simmons as head coach. The former Clemson quarterback has a track record of success with a combined 66-24 record during stints at Florida A&M and Prairie View A&M.

Quarterback Keyone Jenkins (2,557 yards and 22 TDs) should be one of Conference USA's top signal-callers and a key cog in Simmons' rebuilding effort. However, FIU's offensive line is in rebuild mode with just one starter back, and the receiving corps was hit hard by departures when Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson transferred to Georgia Tech. Running back Kejon Owens should contend for all-conference honors.

Standout cornerback Brian Blades II is FIU's lone returning starter on defense. The Panthers lost their top nine tacklers from '24 and need to get tougher against the run after allowing 191.3 yards a game on the ground last year. Expect transfers at all three levels to help speed up the rebuilding process in the fall.

10. New Mexico State

After going 17-11 under Jerry Kill from 2022-23, New Mexico State was due for regression last year. Not only was the program (one of the hardest in the nation) navigating a coaching change to Tony Sanchez, but the roster was also undergoing a significant turnover from the previous year. As a result, last season's 3-9 mark in Sanchez's debut was no surprise.

A rebound in '25 depends on how far an offense that ranked near the bottom of Conference USA in scoring (21.6 points a game) and yards per play (4.8) develops under new coordinator David Yost. Montana transfer quarterback Logan Fife should bring needed balance to this attack, while a pair of transfers - Kadarius Calloway (California) and Dijon Stanley (Utah) form a promising backfield. Only one starter returns up front.

In addition to needing major gains on offense, New Mexico State's defense has room to improve after surrendering 6.4 yards a snap and 36.3 points a contest. The cupboard isn't empty for Sanchez, however. Linebackers Tyler Martinez and Sone Aupiui form a solid second level, while end Gabe Peterson transfers back to Las Cruces after a season at Utah State. Cornerback Dakerric Hobbs is one of the top defensive backs in CUSA.

11. Missouri State

Missouri State enters its first season of FBS play with momentum on its side. The Bears are making the jump after an 8-4 campaign under second-year coach Ryan Beard. Transitioning to the FBS level won't be easy, but Missouri State is equipped for this challenge and could surprise with a few breaks.

Quarterback Jacob Clark is a big reason why Missouri State can be competitive right away in its Conference USA debut. Clark threw for 3,604 yards and 26 touchdowns last year and should be among the conference's top signal-callers in '25. Losing tight end Lance Mason to transfer in the spring was a late setback, but the receiving corps is still in good shape with James BlackStrain and Jmariyae Robinson returning. Four starters are back up front, and FIU transfer Shomari Lawrence should lead the ground attack.

The defense is Beard's biggest concern entering '25. Every level of this unit was hit hard by departures, with three starters back from last season. Up front, look for a pair of former power conference players in DJ Wesolak (Oregon State) and Davon Townley (Penn State) to factor prominently into the rebuilding effort. Solidifying the rush defense and restocking at cornerback are Beard's top priorities this offseason.

12. Kennesaw State

After making its FBS debut in 2024, Kennesaw State is starting over. The first coach in program history (Brian Bohannon) was dismissed last year, with former NFL assistant and North Carolina Central head coach Jerry Mack now tasked with elevating the Owls in Conference USA.

Mack's long-term outlook here is bright, but Kennesaw State is facing a significant rebuild this year. After averaging 16.5 points a game last fall, the Owls are shifting away from a run-first attack to a balanced attack. Former Indiana/Georgia Southern quarterback Dexter Williams II has the inside track to the starting job, while Mack has a few intriguing playmakers in receiver Gabriel Benyard and running back Coleman Bennett to deploy.

With the offense in transition, the Owls should be able to lean on their defense to keep them in games early in the '25 campaign. This unit allowed 5.92 yards a snap and 31.2 points a game last season but returns seven starters this fall. Donelius Johnson and Garland Benyard are back to anchor the second level, while the secondary should be among the best in CUSA with cornerbacks JeRico Washington and Tyler Hallum returning.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 11, 2025, where it first appeared.

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