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Detroit Tigers predictions for 2025 season: Fearless answers to 5 critical questions
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- Detroit Tigers predictions for 2025 season: Fearless answers to 5 critical questions
Ah, spring.
When hope springs eternal in baseball ... as does the burning questions as we enter the 2025 season.
Will the Detroit Tigers overtake the Cleveland Guardians for a division title? Will Tarik Skubal dominate again? Which young Tiger will take the biggest step forward?
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Five Free Press sports writers tackled five questions in making predictions for the Tigers ' 2025 season. Who do you agree with? Who are shaking your head at? Read on to find out …
Detroit Tigers infielder Colt Keith bats during spring training at TigerTown in Lakeland, Fla. on Friday, Feb. 21, 2025.
SCOUTING THE SEASON: What Detroit Tigers, MLB predictions do our resident experts have for 2025 season?
How many wins for the Tigers?
Jeff Seidel: 87. I know the Tigers will be offensively challenged at times. The injuries to Parker Meadows (this is starting to feel like it's gonna be a while) and Matt Vierling (he'll be back far sooner) are a tremendous blow. But everything starts with pitching. The starting rotation is fantastic. The bullpen is deep and there are plenty of replacement parts in Toledo. The pitching alone will keep them in a position to win more games than not. And I have faith that A.J. Hinch will move around the defensive players, and employ "Hitting Chaos" (I just trademarked that) to get to 87.
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Evan Petzold: 84. Remember when the Tigers went on a 31-11 run to the postseason in 2024? That .738 winning percentage from Aug. 11 to Sept. 27 equals a 120-win pace across a full season, but no MLB team has ever won more than 116 games. Before that magical 42-game stretch, the Tigers had a 55-63 record — on pace for just 75 wins. The Tigers finished with 86 wins in 2024, but they likely won't reach that mark in 2025. Another thing: It's hard to envision the pitching staff finishing among MLB's top five teams in ERA again, putting even more pressure on a below-average offense that saw minimal upgrades this offseason.
Ryan Ford: 85.The Tigers won 86 last season, so is this a step back? Only a little. The Tigers won't match that this year, but they won't need a historic run in August and September, and won't be nearly as awful in June and July, either.
Carlos Monarrez: 86.That's the same as last season, which qualifies as mild progress through consistency. Health is already an issue and I don't have a ton of faith in the rotation after Tarik Skubal (check Jack Flaherty 's numbers in his third of a season with the Dodgers ). Last year's success was built on an unsustainable emergency strategy they don't plan to use again. The roster also wasn't significantly upgraded.
Shawn Windsor: 84. Wait, they're headed backwards? Yes, a bit, the injuries out of the gate will slow them up. They'll get rolling during the summer, health permitting, but they won't close on a wild 31-11 run this season.
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JEFF SEIDEL: How A.J. Hinch handles worst part of his Tigers job reveals why he's so dang good
Will the Tigers win the AL Central? Or make the postseason again?
Seidel: Yes. I go back to the pitching. Skubal is gonna win another Cy Young (see below). Jack Flaherty has his groove again. Reese Olson is far too under appreciated. Jackson Jobe is gonna have some insanely good outings, mixed in with some clunkers. And Casey Mize will be the X-factor. He's gonna soar this season. Meanwhile, I see tremendous seasons from Riley Greene , Kerry Carpenter (but man, he's gotta stay healthy), Spencer Torkelson (yes, I'm planting my flag before the final cuts are announced) and Colt Keith , who wore down at the end of 2024. If Torkelson has the type of season I expect, that alone could push them over the top. Having said that, don't be surprised if they start out slow. This first road trip is tough.
Petzold: No.The Tigers haven't won the AL Central since 2014, and that drought likely won't end in 2025, as the Kansas City Royals — led by superstar Bobby Witt Jr. and Cy Young finalist Seth Lugo — are poised to take the crown. Since the expansion to 12 playoff teams in 2022, only once has the AL Central sent multiple teams to the postseason, with three teams advancing in 2024. It's hard to see that happening again in 2025, so the Tigers probably need to win the division or finish a close second to secure one of the six AL spots. Still, the Central has been unpredictable, so surprises can happen — just see the 2024 Tigers.
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Ford: Yes.85 wins doesn't seem like a lot — and it almost certainly isn't enough for a wild-card spot — but the defending champion Guardians sold off most of their non-Jose Ramirez/Steven Kwan offense (what little there was), the Royals are counting on their 30-something starters to repeat 2024 and the Twins are counting on Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis to stay healthy. That … leaves the Tigers?
Monarrez: No, then yes— they won't win the division, but they should squeak into the playoffs with a wild-card. Once they get there, I like their chances with A.J. Hinch managing his roster effectively. The Twins always seem to be the preseason pick to win the AL Central, but I'll go with the Guardians, especially if Shane Bieber can recapture his Cy Young form when he returns.
Windsor: No. In a division that isn't likely to be as tough as it was a year ago, the Tigers will stay in the race into the fall. But the Royals find a little more magic and take the crown.
Will Tarik Skubal repeat as AL Cy Young winner?
Seidel: Yes. We know he has the stuff. We know he has the track record. But I'm saying this for a different reason and it's all internal. He is one of the most driven athletes I've ever been around. He wants to be great. He is driven to win for his teammates. And he's smart as heck. In no way do I think he's motivated solely by money. But, obviously, it's part of the equation. A massive, jaw-dropping contract is on the horizon. Just stay healthy, just keep pitching this way and he's gonna be a gazillionaire.
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Petzold: Yes. Since 2000, only five pitchers have won back-to-back Cy Young Awards: Randy Johnson (1999-2002), Tim Lincecum (2008-09), Clayton Kershaw (2013-14), Max Scherzer (2016-17) and Jacob deGrom (2018-19). However, an AL pitcher hasn't claimed consecutive awards since Pedro Martínez in 1999-2000. Right now, Skubal is the best starting pitcher in baseball — sorry, Paul Skenes and Chris Sale — with a high-velocity fastball, a swing-and-miss changeup and a fearless attack plan. He bullies right-handed hitters inside with four-seamers and sinkers, then he finishes them with changeups and sliders away. If Skubal stays healthy and maintains command, he should win the Cy Young again in 2025, even if it's not unanimous this time.
Ford: Yes.The AL hasn't had a repeat CYA winner since 1999-2000 (Pedro Martinez), so this is a longer shot than you'd think. But Skubal's stats this spring — an 0.828 WHIP and 24 strikeouts in 19⅓ innings — are even better than last spring's (1.143 WHIP and 19 Ks in 14 innings). That's locked in.
Monarrez: No.If he stays healthy, he's the best pitcher in baseball, which is why he's the betting favorite. But I'm blaming my prediction on baseball because baseball loves numbers and I have an important one: 25. That's how many years it's been since Pedro Martinez was the last AL Cy Young repeat winner. I'll go with Texas ' Jacob deGrom because he plays in the weak AL West.
Windsor: Yes. Skubal has looked great in Spring. I know, I know, it's spring. But he isn't trying to prove himself in spring training. He's already done it in the Majors. He looks ready to do it again.
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Which young Tiger will take the biggest step forward?
Seidel: Dillon Dingler . First of all, he has improved tremendously on the defensive side over the last year. And he was already dang good. But he's learning the nuances of calling games and controlling a pitcher and handling a gameplan. But his bat is gonna take him over the top. He always seems to excel the second year at a level. He's been hitting like crazy this spring. And I wouldn't be surprised to see him earn the majority of playing time at catcher at some point, assuming he hits; and I truly believe he will.
Petzold: Riley Greene. Let's not forget Greene is only 24 years old. He is the third-youngest player on the Opening Day roster, older than only 22-year-old Jackson Jobe and 23-year-old Colt Keith. The former No. 5 overall pick made the All-Star Game for the first time in 2024, but all signs point to him ascending to MVP-caliber performance in 2025. His .827 OPS in 2024 ranked fifth among AL players aged 25 or younger, trailing Juan Soto (.989), Bobby Witt Jr. (.977), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.940) and Gunnar Henderson (.893). Those four players received MVP votes in 2024, and Greene will receive MVP votes in 2025 — that's another big step forward.
Ford: Is it too late to go with Bakso, the Siberian Tiger cub in Orlando? Yes, OK, then .... Colt Keith.First base isn't a vacation defensively, but the move from second base should keep him healthier on a daily basis and let him put up months closer to his May 2024 (.881 OPS) than his April 2024 (.396 OPS). Again, spring stats aren't the most reliable, but his .718 OPS in Grapefruit League play is a decent floor.
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Monarrez: Jackson Jobe.the flamethrower will struggle a bit out of the gate, but he'll figure things out as the season progresses. He has progressed quickly through every level and now he has to succeed at the highest level for an entire season if the Tigers have any hope of improving what is a slightly better than mediocre rotation behind Skubal.
Windsor: Tempting to say Colt Keith. But let's go with Jackson Jobe. Maybe it's just because he has more room to leap, from spending most of the year in the minors to being named a starter ahead of Opening Day. His electric stuff – he hit 101.8 mph this Spring – should give him a shot at rookie of the year consideration.
Who is the most important Tiger this season (other than Skubal)?
Seidel: Riley Greene. OK, so this might seem too obvious. But he's the key to everything. Defensively, he will play the majority of the time on the corners, as Hinch moves Greene to the biggest part of the outfield, depending on where they are playing. He's a massive safety net for in-game moves. When Hinch starts hitting for guys, he can always slide Greene into center. But his bat is central to the offense. If Greene stays healthy, everything can work. If he gets hurt, everything starts to fall apart.
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Petzold: Parker Meadows. There's no timetable for Meadows to return from a right upper arm nerve issue, but he won't play in MLB games until late May at the earliest. That's a huge loss for the Tigers because Meadows is their most important position player as the leadoff hitter against right-handed pitchers and the everyday center fielder. He also has All-Star potential if he continues to hit like he did at the end of last season, when a swing change helped him hit .299 with an .857 OPS over his final 50 games. In 2024, the Tigers were 49-26 when Meadows started and 33-11 when he recorded a hit. No one was more critical to the Tigers' postseason run in 2024, which highlights Meadows' value in 2025.
Ford: Gleyber Torres … but only because Spencer Torkelson is no lock for the Opening Day roster despite an impressive spring. In short, the Tigers need to find offense somewhere , especially with their early injury woes. Getting some hits from a right-handed hitter — any righty — will go a long way toward backing a potentially dominating rotation.
Monarrez: Colt Keith.The second-year infielder is being counted on essentially to be the player they Tigers hoped Spencer Torkelson would be, and now he has to make good on that expectation while moving to first base — a very difficult position — while also developing more power. As a lefty, he's also one of the key linchpins in Hinch's plans to have a versatile lineup.
Windsor: Kerry Carpenter.Other than Skubal? You mean other than Riley Greene? Well, Carpenter had the most memorable moment of the Tigers' postseason run but the left-handed slugger is more than just the guy who stunned the Guardians' unhittable closer, Emmanuel Clase . Carpenter's bat will be critical with the injuries, and someone has to help Greene and, yes, Keith.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers predictions for 2025 season:5 critical questions
