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Guardians, AL Central preview: Why Cleveland will, won't repeat as division champs in 2025
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- Guardians, AL Central preview: Why Cleveland will, won't repeat as division champs in 2025
It's difficult to envision on March 27 how every game counts when 162 lay in front of (most) teams. In the 2025 American League Central, it is perhaps as true as it has ever been.
Considering projections and betting odds, the AL Central's competitive balance is in rarefied air . The Guardians , Minnesota Twins , Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are all projected to finish within two games of each other. Then there's the Chicago White Sox , who are not just basement dwellers but have somehow dug their way to the Earth's core.
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The Guardians won the AL Central title in Stephen Vogt's first year behind a concoction of genuine clubhouse chemistry and one of the best bullpens in recent memory. Both are elements that can be difficult to replicate.
The Tigers and Royals also made the postseason a year ago, and the Twins would have if not for a collapse — if they hadn't cut $30 million in payroll, the "pitching chaos" in Detroit might have never seen October.
The Guardians open the 2025 season Thursday in Kansas City . Here are three reasons why, and why not, they'll repeat as AL Central champs.
3 reasons why the Guardians can win the 2025 AL Central
Cleveland Guardians pitcher Emmanuel Clase (48) and catcher Bo Naylor (23) celebrate after a win over the Detroit Tigers on July 9, 2024, in Detroit, Michigan.
Emmanuel Clase , Cade Smith and Co. return as MLB's best bullpen
Sometimes the term "crapshoot" describes a bullpen. Sometimes it describes a playoff series. Sometimes it describes a bullpen in a playoff series.
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The bullpen powered the Guardians to the ALCS , where it finally faltered. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton saw what had been an immovable object and pushed it around . The Guardians had no choice but to lean heavily on Emmanuel Clase , Cade Smith , Hunter Gaddis , Tim Herrin and Co. to get there but, eventually, there was no steam left.
The Guardians were careful with their relievers over the offseason and spring, an acknowledgement of the extra mileage put on their arms last year. They'll also have to be careful throughout the 2025 regular season. But if healthy and up to anywhere close to their 2024 levels, the Guardians carry a weapon no other team can boast. They also added Paul Sewald and Jakob Junis to be key contributors.
Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams (32) delivers a pitch against the Chicago White Sox on July 3, 2024, in Cleveland, Ohio.
Tanner Bibee , Luis Ortiz, Gavin Williams lead a healthier starting rotation into 2025
For years, the Guardians rotation was the backbone of the roster. Only a few days into the 2024 season, it felt like the starters were experiencing more MRI scans than bullpen sessions.
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Shane Bieber was lost to Tommy John surgery . Gavin Williams missed the first half of the season and never looked quite right after that. Even with Tanner Bibee emerging as a true front-line starter and Ben Lively putting together a career year, the rotation was playing catchup.
This spring, Bibee was signed to a long-term extension . Luis Ortiz was brought in as a pitcher the Guardians have liked for quite some time. Williams looked like he's on the cusp of a breakthrough. Lively is back, and Logan Allen has given the team some optimism with his spring training camp. And at some point this season, Bieber will join them.
And a return to normalcy for the rotation will be a plus to help protect the bullpen.
Cleveland Guardians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. (15) chats with Jose Ramirez as the sun sets during a game against the Seattle Mariners on June 18, 2024, in Cleveland, Ohio.
Jose Ramirez could again be an MVP finalist in 2025
Any team with Jose Ramirez is going to have a chance, especially with Steven Kwan manning the leadoff spot ahead of him.
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Ramirez is still only 32 and finished fifth in MVP voting last year, when he nearly pulled off a 40-40 season . He's been in the top six in six of the last eight seasons, and he's been a finalist three times in that span.
An argument could be made that no player has been more valuable to his own team than Ramirez over the last eight seasons, though Bobby Witt Jr. is starting to challenge that in Kansas City. Cleveland will be able to get Ramirez off his feet a bit thanks to an open DH spot to start the season.
3 reasons why the Guardians won't win the AL Central in 2025
Cleveland Guardians' Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates with teammate Steven Kwan (38) at home after his two-run home run during the Guardians' home opener against the Chicago White Sox on April 8, 2024, in Cleveland, Ohio.
Do the Guardians have enough offense after Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan?
Ramirez being so valuable to the lineup is a two-sided coin. But the other side is if he goes down, the lineup looks pretty ugly for a hopeful contender.
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Whether Cleveland's lineup had enough oompf was a central question mark entering last year. It was answered thanks to a power surge , primarily behind career-best power numbers by Kwan and Josh Naylor . Naylor is gone , with soon-to-be-39-year-old Carlos Santana in his place , and there's certainly no guarantee that Kwan repeats his home run total.
Can Lane Thomas repeat his performances from September and October, when he finally started to heat up? Can Bo Naylor take the next step in his offensive development? How much power can Jhonkensy Noel and the newly reacquired Nolan Jones provide? And who is producing at second base ?
These are all questions the Guardians might be able to positively answer. But they'd prefer them to not be questions at all. And if Ramirez were to miss significant time, it might single-handedly derail the season.
Cleveland Guardians catcher Bo Naylor (23) tags out Minnesota Twins baserunner Byron Buxton (25) on Aug. 9, 2024, in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
What if the Minnesota Twins finally stay healthy for a full season?
If you had the Twins in a video game and could turn off injuries, they'd be the runaway favorites in the division. Their ticket to getting into the postseason is to stay out of the trainer's room.
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If Byron Buxton can ever play more than 140 or 150 games in a season, he might be an MVP contender. He eclipsed 100 games last year, and the Twins should have thrown a parade. He still missed 60 games. Carlos Correa can't miss two months again. Royce Lewis has the pedigree of a top draft pick but will already open the 2025 season on the injured list.
The Twins of the last several seasons might have had a great playoff run in them if not for the constant injuries and setbacks to many of their best players and prospects, especially on the position player side. If this if the year they all put it together (and stay on the dang field), they might not be able to be caught.
And that isn't to ignore the upward momentum of the Tigers and Royals, either. Both teams could take the division just as easily, Detroit led by Tarik Skubal and some " pitching chaos " and Kansas City powered by three starting pitchers and Witt as an MVP favorite.
Cleveland Guardians catcher Austin Hedges grabs a ball against the Seattle Mariners during a spring training game March 3, 2025, in Peoria, Arizona.
Can the 2025 Guardians clubhouse recreate the magic from 2024?
Lively, a 33-year-old major league veteran, was adamant this spring that the type of clubhouse chemistry the 2024 Guardians cultivated was genuinely rare.
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Thanks largely to Vogt and veteran catcher Austin Hedges , the Guardians started the season defying odds and just never really stopped until the Yankees finally ended their run in the ALCS. Along the way, it was sworn up and down by numerous players that the clubhouse culture was an extreme positive.
It almost feels silly to note, because it can't be quantified, but it also became impossible to ignore as a potential factor. It's something that can perhaps be a throwaway attribute but, then again, there is a human element to professional sports that can sometimes be forgotten.
But can it be replicated in 2025? Most of the same faces return, namely Vogt and Hedges. But if it's true the Guardians truly were caught up in some magic last year, then it's also true it could vanish.
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Cleveland Guardians 2025 season preview: Can the bullpen power them?
