Who will win the Heisman Trophy? The first month of the 2025 college football season saw many of the quarterbacks with the top Heisman odds in the preseason either struggle or go down with injury. As a result, it's now a wide-open race heading into October.
With the first five weeks of the season in the books and every Power 4 team having played at least four games this season, it's time for our Heisman Trophy power rankings.
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First, we'll dive into our top five Heisman Trophy candidates right now entering October. Our table will nclude both the latest Heisman odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook and include stats for the top Heisman candidates.
| Rank |
Player |
Stats |
Heisman Odds |
| 1 |
83.0 ESPN QBR, 1,210 pass yards, 74.6% completion, 9.0 ypa, 14-1 TD-INT, 122 rush yards |
+650 |
|
| 2 |
84.2 ESPN QBR, 1,138 pass yards, 69.3% completion, 9.0 ypa, 11-0 TD-INT, 57 rush yards, 2 TDs |
+950 |
|
| 3 |
Trinidad Chambliss |
87.6 ESPN QBR, 1,033 pass yards, 64.4% completion, 10.2 ypa, 5-1 TD-INT, 266 rush yards, 2 TDs |
+1200 |
| 4 |
Ahmad Hardy |
+3000 |
|
| 5 |
Diego Pavia |
88.4 ESPN QBR, 1,211 pass yards, 74.6% completion, 9.6 ypa, 13-3 TD-INT, 294 rush yards, 2 TDs |
+1700 |
Related: Week 6 College Football Rankings
Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images
Each of the top Heisman Trophy candidates right now have the impressive stats and a signature win on their resume. So, there's a bit of splitting hairs when it comes to the easy comparisons in those areas.
Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson beat the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens, delivering three first-half touchdowns and 288 total yards of offense in a 24-21 win. As for Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, he stole the starting job from Austin Simmons and proved instrumental in Mississippi's 24-19 victory over the LSU Tigers in Week 5. Meanwhile, Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore led the team to a victory over the Penn State Nittany Lions in double overtime.
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All three quarterbacks obviously play in different schemes, and the statistics they put up can be influenced by a number of factors, including the number of snaps played and game script. So, we'll highlight a few specific situations to compare the three quarterbacks. First, how they each handle pressure.
Stats vs Pressure ( Pro Football Focus )
Trinidad Chambliss —55.6% completion, 12.5 ypa, 0-1 TD-INT, 2 sacks taken, 13 first downs on 26 dropbacks
Dante Moore ––59.1% completion, 8.4 ypa, 2-0 TD-INT, 1 sack taken, 10 first downs on 33 dropbacks
Ty Simpson –––44.4% completion, 6.3 ypa, 0-0 TD-INT, 4 sacks, 9 first downs on 35 dropbacks
Chambliss has the highest PFF grade when pressured (88.2) of the three quarterbacks, with his scrambling ability playing a big part in that. Purely as passers, Moore and Chambliss have been fairly close together, with the Rebels' quarterback delivering more explosive plays.
Another area of comparison for all three passers is how they fare throwing deep. Oregon quarterbacks have been knocked in the past for being check-down merchants with many of their throws coming behind or near the line of scrimmage. That's not entirely the case with Moore this year, at least when comparing the rate of deep throws (20-plus yards downfield) made by the trio.
Stats on Deep Throws ( PFF )
Trinidad Chambliss ––73.3% completion rate, 27.3 ypa, 1-1 TD-INT, 33.3% Big-Time Throw rate, 95.5 PFF grade on 15 attempts (14.9 percent of total attempts)
Dante Moore ––55% completion rate, 17.7 ypa, 5-1 TD-INT, 38.1% Big-Time Throw rate, 94.6 PFF grade on 20 attempts (14.9 percent of total attempts)
Ty Simpson ––41.7% completion rate, 12.1 ypa, 2-0 TD-INT, 26.7% Big-Time Throw rate, 90.5 PFF grade on 12 attempts (9.4 percent of total attempts)
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Both on deep throws and passing against pressure, Moore has been a superior passer to Simpson this season, and they are about even in their efficiency on play-action. Where Simpson holds an edge over Chambliss, beyond the number of starts he's made, is that his signature win came on the road rather than at home.
Entering Week 6, Oregon ranks second in ESPN's Strength of Resume , with Mississippi in fifth and Alabama currently in 16th place. If you go off ESPN FPI, the Ducks are in first, followed by the Crimson Tide in third place and the Rebels in eighth.
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Week 5 Stats
T. Chambliss vs LSU —86.9 QBR, 314 pass yards, 59% completion, 8.05 ypa, 1-1 TD-INT, 71 rush yards
D. Moore at Penn State –80.7 QBR, 248 pass yards, 74.4% completion, 6.36 ypa, 3-0 TD-INT, 35 rush yards
T. Simpson at Georgia –90.1 ESPN QBR, 276 pass yards, 63.2% completion, 7.26 ypa, 2-0 TD-INT, 12 rush yards, 1 TD
For us, it's a neck-and-neck battle between Chambliss and Simpson for second place in the Heisman Trophy power rankings. Chambliss faced a better defense in Week 5 than Simpson did, but the Crimson Tide quarterback has put more on tape this season, and his win came at Sanford Stadium on primetime television.
| QB |
Opponent |
YPA |
QB Rating |
Completion % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Moore |
Penn State |
5.15 |
109.5 |
59.2% |
| T. Chambliss |
LSU |
6.03 |
108.6 |
58.3% |
| T. Simpson |
Georgia |
7.82 |
141.2 |
63.9% |
Related: College Football Defense Rankings 2025
While Simpson faced an easier defensive matchup than Chambliss did, the gravity of the Alabama vs. Georgia rivalry game in Athens gives added weight to his performance. He was relatively quiet in the second half, but his first-half excellence and a clutch throw to seal the game put him at No. 2 in our rankings of Heisman Trophy candidates.
Moore is at the top because he's been better in critical situations than Simpson, and he proved instrumental in Oregon's double-overtime win at Beaver Stadium during a White Out game against Jim Knowles' Penn State defense. Adding in that Oregon is undefeated and Alabama isn't, Moore is the obvious front-runner for the Heisman right now.
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