NASCAR: Biggest Surprises and Disappointments of 2025 Season So Far

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NASCAR: Biggest Surprises and Disappointments of 2025 Season So Far

NASCAR — Stan Szeto-Imagn Images Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Matt Johnson · Sportsnaut

Fri, Jul 18, 2025 ·

5 min read

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Only six races are remaining on the NASCAR schedule in the regular season, with the Cup Series quickly closing in on the playoffs. After 20 points-eligible races, there's more than enough data and evidence to highlight drivers who have exceeded expectations and those who have fallen short this year.

Let's dive into some of the biggest surprises and disappointments from the 2025 season.

Surprise: Shane van Gisbergen

NASCAR: Toyota / Save Mart 350 — Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Everyone predicted that Shane van Gisbergen would win a road course race this year, at the very least earning himself a spot in the playoffs. Few saw this level of dominance coming. SVG won three of the four road course races this summer, including a commanding victory by 16.567 seconds in Mexico City. Most thought his lack of experience at Sonoma Raceway would even the playing field and end his road course streak. Instead, he decimated the competition with both a Stage 2 win and an outright victory, leading a race-record 97 laps at Sonoma.

With that performance, van Gisbergen now has three Cup Series victories this season, tying him for the series lead with several other top drivers. He earned 59 points at Sonoma, boosting his total playoff points and solidifying his place among the championship contenders. Van Gisbergen enters Dover tied for the most wins this year, with many now predicting he could reach the Round of 8 in the playoffs.

Disappointment: Brad Keselowski

NASCAR: NASCAR Cup Series Race at Michigan — Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

In 2024, Brad Keselowski won the Goodyear 400 at Darlington ( May 12 ) and recorded the 10th-most top-10 finishes (14), along with the 11th-most laps led (318) in the NASCAR Cup Series. The 2025 campaign, however, has been a major disappointment. Keselowski's average finishing position has plummeted from 15.6 to 22.4 , and he has more DNFs (six) than top-10s (four) through 20 races. He has put himself in must-win territory for the playoffs, and since he's rarely leading races (just 81 laps led, 16th-most in the series), he appears destined for a winless season.

Surprise: Carson Hocevar

While Carson Hocevar might not make the playoffs this season, the 22-year-old has already impressed in his second year in the NASCAR Cup Series. After winning Rookie of the Year in 2024, Hocevar has earned four top-10 finishes, including two top-5s and one pole, through 20 races this season. He has consistently proven to be one of the fastest drivers on ovals, regularly putting himself in the mix for wins. Road courses remain a major issue for him, but the flashes of talent Hocevar is showing this season are superstar-like .

Disappointment: Tyler Reddick

NASCAR, Tyler Reddick — Credit: Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tyler Reddick will make the playoffs, and he's still statistically one of the best NASCAR drivers in 2025. However, this season still feels like a major disappointment for the No. 45 team. Reddick hasn't won a single race and ranks 13th in laps led (112), behind drivers like Josh Berry (169) and Austin Cindric (251). He's also tied for 10th in top-10 finishes (eight). Reddick's placement in the standings is largely a product of avoiding any DNFs this season, but the lack of victories is a major letdown.

Surprise: Ryan Preece

While he doesn't have the support of one of the best NASCAR Cup Series teams, Ryan Preece is delivering consistent results this season. He had a bumpy start, then recorded three consecutive top-10 finishes from Las Vegas through Martinsville. Some DNFs resulted in a four-race lull, but Preece now boasts an average finishing position of 12.1 over the last 10 races, which even includes a 28th-place finish at Nashville. Preece might not be leading many races in 2025, but his seven top-10s in the last 15 races are tied with William Byron for the sixth-most.

Disappointment: Daniel Suarez

NASCAR: Grant Park 165 Cup Practice and Qualifying — Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

In a contract year, Daniel Suárez gave Trackhouse Racing enough reason to make a change next season. Suarez's stats have dropped across the board this season, ranging from his average finishing position (17.86 to 21.4) to the drop in top 10s (nine to three) and top fives (four to one). He didn't provide Trackhouse Racing with a reason to keep him, not with top prospect Connor Zilisch waiting in the wings. Maybe Suarez can find a full-time gig with a smaller team in 2026, but the Xfinity Series might be his best option to win races.

Surprise: Chase Briscoe

Chase Briscoe has indeed benefited this season from stepping into the No. 19 car, replacing Martin Truex Jr. at Joe Gibbs Racing. What makes Briscoe somewhat of a surprise, or more accurately a standout, is what he's done with the opportunity. As the driver of the No. 19, Briscoe has already delivered JGR more top-5 finishes (seven) and poles (four) than Truex did all of last season (five top-5s and two poles). Briscoe has been especially strong as of late, scoring a win at Pocono along with six top-10 finishes in the last 10 races. He's being slightly overlooked heading into the playoffs, but Briscoe's summer performance deserves recognition.

Disappointment: Ty Gibbs

NASCAR: Coca-Cola 600 — Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

There are always flashes from Ty Gibbs that suggest he's on the verge of his first NASCAR Cup Series win. He has shown improvement this summer, finishing inside the top 20 more frequently, and posted an average finish of 8.3 over a recent three-race stretch. Still, he is set to finish well below his totals from last season (12 top-10s and eight top-5s). To that point, his average starting position has slipped from 11.42 to 13.95 and his average finishing position has dipped from 17.42 to 17.65 in 2025. As of mid-July, Gibbs has just three top-10s and two top-5s with no wins or poles this season. Additionally, his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have combined for seven wins and 24 top-5 finishes this year, further highlighting that Gibbs hasn't been able to take full advantage of the equipment and opportunities available to him.

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