NASCAR In-Season Challenge predictions: Projecting Round of 8 winners at Sonoma

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NASCAR In-Season Challenge predictions: Projecting Round of 8 winners at Sonoma

NASCAR In-Season Challenge predictions — Stan Szeto-Imagn Images Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Matt Johnson · Sportsnaut

Mon, Jul 7, 2025 ·

3 min read

(8) Alex Bowman over (32) Ty Dillon

Credit: Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

Ty Dillon is the Cinderella story of the NASCAR In-Season Challenge. As the lowest-ranked seed entering the tournament, everyone naturally predicted he would lose to Denny Hamlin in Round 1. Then, an early wreck at Atlanta took Hamlin out and allowed Dillon to automatically advance. In a Round 2 matchup against Brad Keselowski, destiny left its mark again: a Stage 1 wreck ended Keselowski's day, sending the 32nd seed to the "Elite Eight" of the tournament at Sonoma Raceway.

As much as everyone loves a Cinderella story and extended tournament runs, they all end with one of the powerhouses eventually coming out on top. Sonoma Raceway will be the end for Dillon. Alex Bowman is the superior road course driver, with a 13.9 average finishing position versus 27.2 ( DriverAverages.com ) and Dillon doesn't have a single top-20 finish in five Cup Series races at Sonoma Raceway. It's been an improbable run, but Dillon's luck now runs out.

(20) Erik Jones over (12) John Hunter Nemechek

Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

John Hunter Nemechek is having himself a nice little run lately, recording three top-15 finishes, including sixth place at Mexico City and Pocono, in the last four races. For good reason, he's favored to advance over Erik Jones in the NASCAR In-Season Challenge. It's worth noting, however, that Jones has more experience behind the wheel of a Next Gen era Cup Series car at Sonoma Raceway than JHN.

However, we're picking Jones for a different reason: he's simply been the better driver as of late. The Chicago Street Race (25th) was his worst finish since Kansas—a nine-race stretch that featured three top-10 finishes and four additional top-20 finishes. We're giving Jones the edge on Sunday at Sonoma, predicting he'll finish top 20 while JHN finishes outside the top 20.

(23) Tyler Reddick over (15) Ryan Preece

Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Tyler Reddick is one of the better road course drivers in the Cup Series, but that success hasn't necessarily included Sonoma Raceway. He has just one top-10 finish in his Cup career at Sonoma, with a 50 percent success rate at finishing inside the top 20. However, that top finish came just last season, when he placed 8th and recorded a Stage 1 victory. Ryan Preece is a pretty safe bet to finish inside the top 20—he's done it in 8 of 14 road course races—but Reddick's ceiling is considerably higher. The No. 45 will finish inside the top 10 at Sonoma, moving on to the final four.

(6) Ty Gibbs over (14) Zane Smith

Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

This felt like the easiest of our NASCAR In-Season Challenge predictions to make, which probably means Zane Smith is advancing. While Ty Gibbs still doesn't have his first career victory in the Cup Series, he's quickly become one of the 10 best drivers on road courses at this level. He is coming off a second-place finish at Chicago and would have finished even better at the road course in Mexico City if not for a bad strategy call. He's got a real shot at a top-5 finish this coming Sunday, which would put him well ahead of Smith.

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