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NBA record projections, playoff picks: How we see 2025-26 season unfolding
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- NBA record projections, playoff picks: How we see 2025-26 season unfolding
The start of the NBA season is five days away.
Friday, Oct. 17 marks the final day of the NBA preseason. Coaches and players have worked their way back to game shape, and contenders have their eyes on a trip to the NBA Finals.
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are the reigning NBA champions and were dominant last season from the start of play to the end. The Thunder led the league with 68 victories, which was 16 more than the Western Conference's second-best team, the Houston Rockets (52), and four more than the leader in the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers (64).
Yet, the NBA has not seen a repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors won consecutive titles in 2017 and 2018.
Here are the record projections for every NBA team for the 2025-26 season with previews of each:
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Eastern Conference record projections
(Projected 2025-26 conference seed in parentheses for applicable teams.)
Atlantic Division
(1) New York Knicks ; 59-23: New coach Mike Brown should rely on New York's depth far more than his predecessor did, but the biggest improvement the Knicks should see this season is a more diversified offense, and one that features star Jalen Brunson off the ball more often.
(6) Philadelphia 76ers ; 43-39:This is all going to come down to the health of Philly's players, the most important being Joel Embiid . He reported to training camp slimmed down , has been limited during the preseason, and his comments at media day signaled that he'll likely be on a load management schedule. The Sixers, though, could be a candidate to outperform if they can get him consistently on the floor.
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(7) Boston Celtics ; 41-41:This is one of the toughest teams to project. The Celtics traded Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday and will be without star Jayson Tatum for at least most of the regular season. Role players like forward Sam Hauser and center Neemias Queta will need to step up.
(9) Toronto Raptors ; 40-42: Brandon Ingram should boost this offense, and he should pair well with 24-year-old star Scottie Barnes . The key will be consistent health, but after missing out on the play-in window last season, the Raptors could rise to a fringe playoff squad.
Brooklyn Nets ; 16-66:A team that is very clearly amassing draft capital and building for the future, the Nets will have to rely on young, unproven players. There will be growing pains along the way, and it's not clear if Cam Thomas and Michael Porter Jr. can carry the offense.
Central Division
(2) Cleveland Cavaliers ; 58-24:One season after leading the East in victories (64), the Cavs should once again be a potent threat. Losing valuable sixth man Ty Jerome will be a blow, but Cleveland retained its core, and Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr. should provide some steady depth.
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(3) Detroit Pistons ; 53-29:They broke out last season in a big way – winning 30 more games than the prior year – and the return of guard Jaden Ivey (broken leg) should be a massive boost. Ivey's injury forced Cade Cunningham to be on the ball more, and he responded excellently, earning his first All-Star nod and averaging 26.1 points and 9.1 assists per game – both career highs. Another step up could be incoming.
(10) Indiana Pacers ; 39-43:If there's one team equipped to handle the loss of its star point guard, it's the Pacers, who spread the ball and ride the hot hand. This presents massive opportunities for guards Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard , though Indiana will need to figure out if Isaiah Jackson can be a viable replacement for Myles Turner .
Milwaukee Bucks ; 37-45:Things are going to be different for the Bucks, who will rely even more on do-it-all unicorn Giannis Antetokounmpo to carry the team. Plucking center Myles Turner away from the Pacers was huge, but where else will the offense come from?
Chicago Bulls ; 35-47:Having made three consecutive appearances in the Play-In Tournament, the Bulls didn't do much to alter their roster and seem to be happy with its current construction. If Josh Giddey continues to level up, however, Chicago could surprise.
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Southeast Division
(4) Orlando Magic ; 52-30:If Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner each don't suffer torn oblique injuries early last season, it may have been a different year for the Magic. But by adding Desmond Bane , the Magic finally have a reliable perimeter shooter who diversifies the offense.
(5) Atlanta Hawks ; 44-38:They revitalized their roster with the additions of Kristaps Porziņģis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard , but the biggest boosts may come from the return of Jalen Johnson (torn labrum) and the continued progression of last year's No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher .
(8) Miami Heat ; 40-42:Losing Tyler Herro for the start of the season is a setback for an offense that struggled to score, especially late in games. Norman Powell is a steady veteran presence who will help, but early reports out of training camp are that Miami will look to push tempo. That would be a welcome lift for the offense.
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Washington Wizards ; 23-59:Though they're likely still a few seasons from competing for playoff spots, the Wizards have been quietly stockpiling some talented players. Alex Sarr , Bilal Coulibaly and Bub Carrington have flashed some promise, while rookie guard Tre Johnson could be an eventual star.
Charlotte Hornets ; 21-61:The Hornets added plenty of shooting over the offseason, but their fate will come down to Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball , and whether both can play with more efficiency – especially Ball.
Western Conference
(Projected 2025-26 conference seed in parentheses for applicable teams.)
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Northwest Division
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder ; 62-20:They have their young core locked in place, though Jalen Williams continues to recover from offseason wrist surgery. Oklahoma City is more than capable of winning in the short-term without him. But can they avoid getting complacent after winning a title?
(3) Denver Nuggets ; 54-28:Trading for Cameron Johnson should unlock versatility and playmaking in this offense, and he should fit in seamlessly with three-time MVP Nikola Jokić , one of the best passers in the game. Two seasons removed from winning it all, the Nuggets are once again very much a title contender.
(6) Minnesota Timberwolves ; 45-37:After consecutive trips to the Western Conference finals, it's fair to wonder if this team has peaked, particularly because it lost a key defensive asset in Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
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Portland Trail Blazers ; 37-45:They improved late last season, and adding Jrue Holiday gives the Blazers solid veteran leadership. Shaedon Sharpe could be on the verge of a breakout campaign, but Portland needs much more from Scoot Henderson , who will start the season sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Utah Jazz ; 17-65:Based on early preseason action, rookie Ace Bailey looks like he could be an eventual star. The Jazz, however, might sell off their best remaining asset, forward Lauri Markkanen , before the trading deadline.
Pacific Division
(4) Los Angeles Clippers ; 51-31:The investigation into Kawhi Leonard and owner Steve Ballmer's role in allegedly circumventing the salary cap will hang over the franchise until there is a resolution. But this is probably the last season for this veteran roster to compete for a championship. Adding John Collins and Brook Lopez shores up the front court.
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(7) Golden State Warriors ; 45-37:A team with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler will still be competitive. The problem is that the bulk of the offense falls on their shoulders. They also lack height in the front court. With an aging roster, can they sustain a deep run?
(8) Los Angeles Lakers ; 43-39: Not having LeBron James for the start of the season will put a ton of pressure on Luka Dončić . The Lakers better hope that James' sciatica issue doesn't linger, because they will miss his play-making. The biggest hole on the roster, however, is at center, where DeAndre Ayton may not be a long-term solution.
Sacramento Kings ; 35-47:They actually have a talented roster, and Dennis Schröder solves the point guard problem, at least in the short term. The absolute necessity for Sacramento to improve, however, is in perimeter defense, after the Kings ranked dead last in defensive 3-point percentage (38.1%).
Phoenix Suns ; 30-52:This is now, fully, Devin Booker 's team. The Suns will look very different this season, and they'll have a dynamic backcourt with Jalen Green starting opposite Booker. Dillon Brooks will bring defensive intensity, but their offense might struggle to outscore opponents.
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Southwest Division
(2) Houston Rockets ; 55-27:Losing point guard Fred VanVleet to a torn anterior cruciate ligament is a blow, but Houston remains a legitimate title threat with Kevin Durant in the fold . They're hyper-athletic and long at the wing, built to defend a team like the defending-champion Thunder.
(5) San Antonio Spurs ; 50-32:Early indications are that the Spurs got another stellar guard in rookie Dylan Harper , who has shined in the preseason. Victor Wembanyama appears to have bulked up and refined his game, and a massive leap could be coming for the 21-year-old. De'Aaron Fox and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle make this team a candidate to break out.
(9) Memphis Grizzlies ; 39-43:Memphis is counting on rookie Cedric Coward , the No. 11 overall selection in the 2025 draft, and free agent signing Ty Jerome replacing Desmond Bane. Ja Morant is dealing with a sprained ankle but should be okay. The biggest question facing the Grizzlies is turnovers and inefficient play; they need to clean that up.
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(10) Dallas Mavericks ; 38-44:They would get a massive boost if Kyrie Irving returns before the end of the season, but the future does look promising for the Mavericks. Overall No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg should bring versatility and play-making ability, though it's safe to wonder if Anthony Davis will hit an eventual decline.
New Orleans Pelicans ; 28-54:A slimmed-down Zion Williamson could inject a significant boost for a Pelicans team that needs it with team missing point guard Dejounte Murray (Achilles). New Orleans does have a couple of promising rookies in Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen , but the Pelicans may still have a tough time clawing into the playoff picture.
2025-26 NBA playoff predictions
Eastern Conference
First round
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(1) Knicks def. (8) Heat
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(7) Celtics def. (2) Cavaliers
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(3) Pistons def. (6) 76ers
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(5) Hawks def. (4) Magic
Conference semifinals
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(1) Knicks def. (5) Hawks
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(3) Pistons def. (7) Celtics
Conference finals
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(1) Knicks def. (3) Pistons
Western Conference
First round
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(1) Thunder def. (8) Lakers
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(2) Rockets def. (7) Warriors
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(3) Nuggets def. (6) Timberwolves
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(5) Spurs def, (4) Clippers
Conference semifinals
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(5) Spurs def. (1) Thunder
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(3) Nuggets def. (2) Rockets
Conference finals
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(3) Nuggets def. (5) Spurs
2026 NBA Finals
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Nuggets def. Knicks
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA record projections for every team in 2025-26, playoff predictions
