Red Sox’s nightmare scenario for 2025 MLB playoffs

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Red Sox’s nightmare scenario for 2025 MLB playoffs

RB Hayek, ClutchPoints · ClutchPoints

Thu, Sep 18, 2025 ·

4 min read

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The post Red Sox's nightmare scenario for 2025 MLB playoffs appeared first on ClutchPoints .

The Boston Red Sox are looking to clinch a playoff spot this week. While Boston's dream scenario could see the team getting everything it wants, the alternative could be very bad. Currently, the Red Sox are tied with the Seattle Mariners for the second wild card spot. They likely will make the 2025 MLB Playoffs. However, the Red Sox nightmare scenario could see things ending badly.

Boston currently has odds of +1900 to win the World Series , according to betting trends on FanDuel. Generally, the team has wavered back and forth this season. There was a time when they were nearly out of the race. Then, a hot stretch got them back in it. Boston has also hung around the New York Yankees for the top wild card spot. But things have flattened lately, with the Sox playing mediocre baseball.

The Red Sox have slumped lately, and it could threaten to derail everything they have worked toward. Yes, there is still a good chance this team makes a run. But the nightmare could become a reality if they continue on this path they are on.

The Red Sox fall to the last AL Wild Card spot

For a while, it seemed like the Sox were going to battle the Yankees for the first AL Wild Card spot. That set themselves up for an AL Wild Card Series with the Bronx Bombers. If that were to happen, that would be advantageous to the Red Sox. They are 9-4 against New York this season and have played well. If they were to fall to the final spot, they would not face the Yankees. Instead, they would face the third seed in the AL.

The Houston Astros are currently occupying the third seed. That would be an ideal matchup for the Sox, since they are 4-2 against the Astros. However, the Detroit Tigers are currently mired in a slump and could fall to the third seed. If that were to happen, it could be a disastrous matchup for Boston. The Red Sox are 0-3 against the Tigers this season, with all three games happening at Comerica Park.

The Red Sox will end the regular season with three straight games against the Tigers at Fenway Park. Ultimately, there is a chance the Red Sox could face the Tigers in the AL Wild Card. That has never happened before in major league history (it has happened only with one-game playoff series to determine seeding). Are the Red Sox prepared to face the Tigers?

The pitching staff cannot maintain itself

Garrett Crochet has approached franchise history and is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Yet, there is concern about how he will do and how the rest of the rotation will do in the MLB Playoffs. Assuming Crochet starts Game 1, Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito would be the next two. Can either pitcher handle a battle against the Tigers or Astros?

Bello has struggled against the Tigers throughout his career, going 0-1 with a 5.74 ERA. Likewise, Giolito has also done badly against them, going 6-8 with a 4.82 ERA. Even if they face the Astros, it won't be easy. Giolito is 3-6 with a 5.36 ERA against the Astros, while Bello is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against Houston. Ultimately, starting a playoff game could prove more challenging, especially if the hitting does not respond.

The hitting goes cold

The Red Sox have been mostly solid on offense this season. Currently, they rank fifth in batting average, seventh in on-base percentage, eighth in runs, 14th in home runs, and ninth in slugging percentage. But some teams have often seen their offense go by the wayside in October.

This could also be the case if they draw the Tigers and Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal . Likewise, it could be the case if they face Framber Valdez and the Astros. This is where Jarren Duran needs to be at his best. Likewise, Trevor Story and Alex Bregman must pace the heart of the order to put the opposing pitching staff on its heels. The real weakness of this team is the bottom of the lineup. Will the 6-9 hitters be able to contribute in any meaningful way?

Imagine a scenario where the Red Sox have the bases loaded with two outs and right fielder Rob Refsnyder is at the plate. Is he capable of taking advantage of a golden situation like that in October? Or, is he more likely to fly out to end the threat and leave the bases loaded? That is a potential nightmare scenario the Sox face, especially when they have inconsistent hitters in the bottom half of their lineup. If the Sox cannot field the best lineup, they could be going home early this season.

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