Why Diamondbacks will clinch NL Wild Card spot

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Why Diamondbacks will clinch NL Wild Card spot

Garrett Kerman · ClutchPoints

Thu, Aug 28, 2025 ·

4 min read

Elite Rotation Anchors Lead the Charge

Mandatory Credit: © Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When discussing why the Diamondbacks are primed for October baseball, the conversation starts with their top-of-the-rotation arms. Arizona has developed a reputation as one of the most dangerous pitching clubs in the NL, and that begins with its dynamic duo.

Zac Gallen , the unquestioned ace, continues to be the steady workhorse he has been for multiple seasons. His ability to neutralize opposing lineups, keep runners off base, and limit damage in high-leverage innings gives Arizona a legitimate shot to win every time he takes the mound. But perhaps more importantly, his presence means that in any Wild Card matchup, the Diamondbacks won't enter the game at a pitching disadvantage — a critical edge in an era where starting pitching depth often dictates October outcomes.

Backing him up is Brandon Pfaadt , who has taken a major leap forward this season. Having endured growing pains during parts of last year, Pfaadt now looks like a reliable number two, with improved command of his changeup and the confidence to attack hitters deep into games. That kind of maturation has stabilized the rotation. Beyond them, Jordan Montgomery — acquired to round out the staff — provides playoff-tested experience that adds to the mix.

The reason this rotation stands out in the Wild Card conversation is that few other fringe playoff teams can counter with a three-deep group this steady. The Giants, Padres, and Reds have depth questions. The Marlins, while talented, are inconsistent. Arizona can bank on its starters to shorten games and give its bullpen manageable scenarios.

Offensive Balance and Star Power

Arizona's offense has been streaky at times, but when it's clicking, it can resemble the same relentless unit that powered the franchise to a World Series appearance in 2023. That offense is built on a combination of star power at the top and versatile table-setters who thrive in pressure moments.

Gerald Perdomo remains the straw that stirs the drink. His all-around skill set — speed, defense, clutch hitting — makes him a catalyst. His resurgence down the stretch this year has been a game-changer. With Perdomo finding his swing and getting on base at a high clip, Arizona's lineup instantly becomes more dynamic.

Alongside him, Ketel Marte continues to be one of the most underappreciated sluggers in baseball. His ability to change a game with one swing in the middle of the order gives Arizona much-needed thump that complements Perdomo's on-base skills. Corbin Carroll adds veteran consistency and power bat, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has chipped in timely power.

The real development this year, though, has been the improved production from Arizona's supporting cast. Gabriel Moreno 's steady bat and leadership behind the plate, coupled with contributions from young players like Jordan Lawlar , have added depth to the batting order. This blend of veterans and youth makes the Diamondbacks less susceptible to prolonged scoring droughts compared to their Wild Card rivals.

September Schedule and Playoff Experience

One under-discussed element in playoff races is the impact of scheduling and recent postseason pedigree. Arizona, in both regards, has an advantage. Their September slate is favorable, with multiple series against teams below the .500 mark. This gives them a golden opportunity to bank wins while some of their rivals must endure grueling divisional matchups against contenders.

Furthermore, this group knows how to handle the pressure cooker of meaningful late-season baseball. Having gone all the way to the World Series just two years ago, these core players have sharpened their ability to perform under postseason-like intensity. That matters when games tighten up in September, and it matters when manager Torey Lovullo has to make quick bullpen moves or lineup adjustments in must-win matchups.

The National League Wild Card race often provides some of baseball's best drama, and 2025 promises to be no exception. But when projecting which teams have the right combination of elite talent, balance, and experience to ultimately survive, the Diamondbacks rise to the top of the list.

Their rotation gives them a reliable formula in must-win games, their lineup boasts both speed and power, and their favorable September path offers an additional boost. Most importantly, this team has already shown it can rise to the occasion under playoff pressure.